The March PCE inflation stats were as expected and because they come a few weeks after the CPI is released, there is much less drama on this day, especially as it comes also after the PCE data seen for all of Q1 yesterday. The headline gain was one tenth m/o/m and 4.2% y/o/y. The core rate was higher by .3% m/o/m and 4.6% y/o/y. That core rate peaked at 5.4% in …
[Read more...] about Inflation, income & spending a non event/Wages, salaries up 2x pre Covid pace
What an exhausting way to run in place. The S&P 500 started the week at 4134 and closed yesterday at 4135. In case you didn't see or hear, It was these words from the Amazon call that broke its post earnings rally: "the uncertain economic environment and ongoing inflationary pressures continue to be a factor, and we believe it's continuing to drive cautious …
[Read more...] about Yes Amazon but did you hear what Cloudflare said?/BoJ/Rents/Europe
Pending home sales in March fell 5.2% m/o/m, worse than the forecast of up .8%. Weakness was seen in all regions except down South. The NAR is blaming the limited inventory choices of existing homes which is certainly the case with home builders gaining market share. Their chief economist said “The lack of housing inventory is a major constraint to rising sales. …
Q1 GDP rose by 1.1% q/o/q annualized and at least with the final Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate they nailed it. Personal spending, the biggest component as we know, was up 3.7% vs the forecast of 4%. That added 248 bps to GDP with spending on autos and services leading the way. Gross private investment was a drag of 234 bps with a drop in inventories being the main …
[Read more...] about The economic debate should not be if, it should be how much and lengthy instead
While the Fed is going to hike rates another 25 bps next week as widely expected and we debate whether it's the right move or not, the fed funds futures market is saying who cares whether it's one more time or not as the December 2024 contract is saying, as of today, the Fed will CUT rates by about 200 bps by then as it yields 3.20%. I think the key question for the …
Non defense capital goods orders ex aircraft in March fell .4% m/o/m, 3 tenths worse than expected and also of note, February was revised down by 6 tenths. Shipments too were weaker than forecasted and February was also revised down which means we’ll see a clip to Q2 GDP as this is directly plugged in. A huge jump in volatile airline orders helped the headline …
So many earnings calls to go through but I did my best to pull out what's most relevant for the macro angle. MSFT There was a lot of 'AI' mentions in their earnings call. "In Azure, customers continued to exercise some caution as optimization and new workload trends from the prior quarter continued as expected." Their commercial business saw 19% …
The April Philly non-manufacturing activity index, so call it their services PMI, fell to -22.8 from -12.8. The Philly Fed said the responses “suggest continued weakening in nonmanufacturing activity in the region. The indexes for general activity at the firm level, sales/revenues, and new orders all declined. Both price indexes remain somewhat elevated, and the …
[Read more...] about Service stats/Home prices/Home sales/Mfr’g/How do consumers feel?
I'm going to start today with comments from maybe a company you haven't heard of, Packaging Corp of America (PKG) as they are the 3rd largest producer of containerboard products and a top maker of uncoated freesheet paper in North America. As they make the boxes too that contain a lot of the packages we get to our homes each day, it's a finger on the pulse of …
As we ready ourselves for earnings from big cap tech, among from hundreds others this week, it just seems so obvious to me why the stock market hangs in as well as it does. No one wants to miss the 'Fed is done' rally. So yes, the Fed will seemingly hike again next week but we assume, as does the fed funds futures market, that it will be it and who wants to miss that …
[Read more...] about Can’t miss the ‘Fed is almost done’ rally!?
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor. Each day The Boock Report provides summaries and commentary on the macro data and news that matter, with analysis of what it all means and how it fits together.
