Initial jobless claims totaled 227k, 7k more than expected and up 10k from the week prior. This print is a 7 week high and brings the 4 week average to 221k from 219k, a 6 week high. Continuing claims, delayed by a week, rose by 22k but the week before it fell by 34k.
Bottom line, the level of claims still remains very low and highlights a muted pace of firing’s notwithstanding this uptick but as seen in the chart, we can argue they’ve bottomed for this cycle. If May’s payroll report and the CEO confidence figures we’ve been seeing is any indication, companies are taking a pause on any notable hiring until the economic clouds part. As for the possibility of an increase in firing’s from here, I’ll take this quote on what to look for from my friends at Quill Intelligence of what typically comes first, “Cutting fringe workers” and those “the youngest and least skilled and lowest earning workers.” We’ve seen a dramatic two month decline in consumer confidence for those aged 35 and under and something to watch closely.
4 WEEK AVERAGE CLAIMS