The September ISM services index fell to 52.6 from 56.4 in August. That is 2.4 pts below the estimate of 55 and the lowest print since August 2016 when we saw the last manufacturing/services adjustment on the heels of the decline in oil prices. New orders fell 6.6 pts to 53.7, also the weakest since 2016. Backlogs though rebounded from 49 to 54 but about back to …
[Read more...] about ISM services, the fundamentals now matter
Initial jobless claims totaled 219k, 4k more than expected and up from 215k last week (revised up by 2k). Because a 219k print came in and a 219k print came out, the 4 week average stayed at 213k. For perspective, claims have averaged 218k over the past 12 months. Continuing claims, delayed by a week, fell by 5k. Bottom line, claims still remain low as the initial …
[Read more...] about Claims now the most important thing to watch
Yesterday, we saw little change in the bullishness on the part of 'professionals' according to Investors Intelligence with Bulls actually rising to 55.3 from 55.1 while Bears were up slightly too at 17.1. Anything 55 or higher is stretched. Likely this captured sentiment as of last Thursday/Friday when the SPX was around 3000. Today's AAII index of individual thoughts …
ADP said in September that a net 135k private sector jobs were created, 5k less than expected and of note, August was revised down by 38k to 157k. Breaking this out saw an 8k job increase in the goods producing side with construction making up 9k, manufacturing 2k and offset by a decline in the number of those working in natural resources/mining. With …
After yesterday's jump in longer term Japanese JGB yields, they are falling back by about 1 bp. This is going to be a really interesting situation going forward as again we have a central bank after about 20 years of easing that finally realizes that having a yield curve and a functioning banking system is an important foundation for economic growth. Too bad it took a …
I'm going to talk about Japanese bonds again and the BoJ because I don't think people are appreciating that after about 20 years of trying to suppress interest rates, the BoJ wants HIGHER long term rates. The Japanese had its worst 10 yr bond auction today since 2016 a day (in terms of the bid to cover) after the BoJ specifically said they are going to be buying less …
[Read more...] about Again, please watch what is going on with JGB’s
For the 3rd month in the past 4 the September Chicago manufacturing PMI was below 50. Today's print went from 50.4 to 47.1. On a quarterly basis, we've just seen the slowest pace of growth since Q3 2009. Production fell to the lowest since May 2009 while new orders fell 7.6 pts to below 50 at 48.5. Order backlogs are down to 46.8 from 51.3 and inventories are all the …
I'l just say this about the vague story Friday about the US possibly restricting investments in China or US listed Chinese stocks. I'm all for holding Chinese companies to the same accounting and disclosure standards as all other foreign companies do relative to US companies. As for the variable interest entities that are the US traded Chinese companies, buyer beware …
[Read more...] about I got some stuff for you, particularly on bond yields
Core durable goods orders in August were a bit weaker than expected, falling .2% m/o/m instead of seeing no change as forecasted. Versus last year, core capital spending is down 1.7%. Orders from July fell for vehicles/parts, electrical equipment and computers/electronics but rose for machinery and metals. Shipments of core goods, plugged into GDP, was up by …
[Read more...] about Cap spending softens as does spending, income good, PCE in line
The valuation revaluations continue with Peloton and Endeavor following WeWorks, Uber, Lyft, etc...This is not an issue with the IPO market, this is a rethink on excessive multiples relative to earnings, or the lack thereof. It is a sea change at this stage of the cycle. I wish I can get into the head of some central bankers because I still can't figure out their …
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor. Each day The Boock Report provides summaries and commentary on the macro data and news that matter, with analysis of what it all means and how it fits together.
