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May 30, 2017 By Peter Boockvar

Consumer confidence and look at buying intentions


United States

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index in May fell to 117.9 from 119.4. The estimate was 119.5. The index still remains at a high level and is well off the 100.8 print seen in October but it peaked at 124.9 in March. It was the Expectations component that accounted for the m/o/m headline decline as the Present Situation was up a hair. The answers to the labor market questions were mixed as those that said jobs were Plentiful fell .4 pts to a 3 month low but those that said jobs were Hard To Get fell 1.2 pts to the lowest since February 2007. Under the Employment heading, those expecting More Jobs fell 1.3 pts to the least since November. Those expecting an increase in Income was up by .5 pt but only after falling by almost 4 pts last month and those expecting a Decrease rose. Those that expect better business conditions fell almost 4 pts to the weakest also since November as maybe expectations about the Trump agenda fully fulfilling itself is now in question.

Also of note, there was a notable drop in spending intentions. Those that plan on buying an auto in the coming 6 months fell 2 pts to the least since July 2016 for reasons that are becoming very clear to anyone watching. Those that plan on buying a house fell .6 pts to the least in 4 months and those that plan on buying a major appliance was down by almost 4 pts to the lowest since June 2016. One year inflation expectations held at 4.7% for a 3rd straight month.

Lastly, there was a large drop in the confidence of those making between $75-125k. From $75-100k, confidence fell 17.2 pts and for those making between $100-$125, it fell by 23.6 pts. I guess you can call this level of income somewhat squeezed between being about twice the average income but still well below something that makes a family of four comfortable.

Bottom line, the bloom is coming off the rose in terms of the confidence spike post election. While the headline figure is still elevated and the job market answers were good, the spending intentions are definitely showing some hesitancy for big ticket purchases. As for the market response, there rarely is any to consumer confidence numbers because they don’t give us any good clues as to future economic behavior.

Filed Under: Latest Data

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About Peter

Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor. Each day The Boock Report provides summaries and commentary on the macro data and news that matter, with analysis of what it all means and how it fits together.

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Disclaimer - Peter Boockvar is an independent economist and market strategist. The Boock Report is independently produced by Peter Boockvar. Peter Boockvar is also the Chief Investment Officer of Bleakley Financial Group, LLC a Registered Investment Adviser. The Boock Report and Bleakley Financial Group, LLC are separate entities. Content contained in The Boock Report newsletters should not be construed as investment advice offered by Bleakley Financial Group, LLC or Peter Boockvar. This market commentary is for informational purposes only and is not meant to constitute a recommendation of any particular investment, security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy. The views expressed in this commentary should not be taken as advice to buy, sell or hold any security. To the extent any of the content published as part of this commentary may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person. No chart, graph, or other figure provided should be used to determine which securities to buy or sell. Consult your advisor about what is best for you.

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