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April 28, 2017 By Peter Boockvar

Consumer Confidence

The final UoM confidence index for April was 97 vs the 1st print of 98 and vs the estimate of 98. It’s essentially flat with the 96.9 seen in March and compares favorably with the 87.2 print in October and is just below the cycle peak of 98.5 in January. From March, Current Conditions fell .5 pt but was offset by a .5 pt rise in Expectations. One year inflation expectations held at 2.5%. Higher income expectations gave back 1 pt of the 2 pt gain in the initial report. Those expecting less unemployment was flat with March. With respect to the major household spending decisions, those that said it’s a good time to buy a vehicle held its preliminary 5 pt rise from March. Those wanting to buy a home gave up 2 pts of the 7 pt rise vs March. Those that plan on buying a major household item fell 4 pts from the 1st April print but is still up 4 pts from March. This was a positive read from UoM: “An improved financial situation was reported by 50% of all households in both the March and April surveys—the last time a higher figure was recorded was more than fifteen years ago. Consumers cited net income and wealth gains as the main reasons for their improved finances.”

Bottom line, consumer confidence remains near the best in this recovery but the bifurcation remains. UoM said “There remains widespread agreement among consumers on their very positive assessments of the current state of the economy as well as widespread disagreement on future economic prospects based on partisanship. Although the partisan divide has slightly narrowed in recent months, it still reflects a very pessimistic economic outlook among Democrats and a very optimistic outlook among Republicans.” As I’ve said many times, don’t use consumer confidence data as a tool in predicting future consumer behavior. Data such as this is just a snapshot in time. I’ve included a chart going back to 1998 and you can see the times that its peaked and troughed:

image001(1)

 

Filed Under: Latest Data

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About Peter

Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor. Each day The Boock Report provides summaries and commentary on the macro data and news that matter, with analysis of what it all means and how it fits together.

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Disclaimer - Peter Boockvar is an independent economist and market strategist. The Boock Report is independently produced by Peter Boockvar. Peter Boockvar is also the Chief Investment Officer of Bleakley Financial Group, LLC a Registered Investment Adviser. The Boock Report and Bleakley Financial Group, LLC are separate entities. Content contained in The Boock Report newsletters should not be construed as investment advice offered by Bleakley Financial Group, LLC or Peter Boockvar. This market commentary is for informational purposes only and is not meant to constitute a recommendation of any particular investment, security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy. The views expressed in this commentary should not be taken as advice to buy, sell or hold any security. To the extent any of the content published as part of this commentary may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person. No chart, graph, or other figure provided should be used to determine which securities to buy or sell. Consult your advisor about what is best for you.

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