Initial jobless claims were about as expected at 242k vs the estimate of 240k and that is up from 229k last week and vs 246k in the week before. The 4 week average rose to 239k from 236k. Continuing claims fell to 1.805mm from 1.843mm and that was 60k less than expected but above 1.8mm for the 7th straight week.
Bottom line, it’s been a slow process but the trajectory is still upward for the pace of initial claims and for those still receiving them.
We also saw today the Challenger job layoff report where cuts totaled 67k in April vs 90k in March. Retail job cuts led the way in April followed by technology. Year to date, job cuts total 337k vs hiring plans of 94k. Specifically with hiring plans Challenger said “It is the lowest number of announced hiring plans through April since 2016.”
4 week avg Initial Claims
Continuing Claims
US productivity in Q1 fell .9% y/o/y and is the 5th quarter in a row of declining productivity. Unit labor costs were up 5.8% y/o/y and the combination helps to explain the continued degradation in corporate profit margins.
With respect to the ECB, no real surprises yet but the euro is falling while bond yields are up a touch.
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