1)Pfizer and BioNTech’s vaccine showed 90% efficacy.
2)For the week ended Nov 7th Initial jobless claims fell to 709k from 757k and that was below the estimate of 731k. Continuing claims for the week ended Oct 31st continued to fall and this week to 6.79mm vs the estimate of 6.83mm and down from 7.22mm last week. Also positively, those filing for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (week ended 11/7) fell to 298k from 362k
3)The October CPI was unchanged m/o/m, below the estimate of up .1% headline and .2% core. Versus last year the headline print is up 1.2% vs 1.4% in the prior month while the core CPI was higher by 1.6% vs 1.7% in September.
4)The October PPI rose .3% headline, one tenth core and two tenths if you also take out trade. The headline was one tenth more than expected, the core one tenth less and the other was in line. Versus last year headline PPI is up .5% and the core rate by 1.1%.
5)The October NFIB small business optimism index was unchanged m/o/m at 104 but the internals were more mixed. Bill Dunkelberg, the chief economist at the NFIB, said “Leading up to the presidential election, small business continued to focus on stabilizing their businesses but were uncertain about the future economic conditions due to Covid government regulations on all levels. We see solid momentum going into the 4th quarter, and another good quarter could get the GDP back to its 2019 closing levels.”
6)September job openings totaled 6.44mm, about as expected and up from a revised 6.35mm in August.
7)China’s loan growth data for October was about as expected. Aggregate financing totaled 1.42T yuan vs the estimate of 1.4T of which bank loans were 690b. This is s sharp slowdown from the prior two months and is the smallest total since last October not including the Lunar New Yr holiday distortion in February. This said, October usually sees a cyclical moderation due to Golden Week. M2 money supply growth was 10.5% y/o/y vs 10.9% in September.
8)China October CPI was up .5% y/o/y, the same as the core rate but below the estimate of up .8%. Food price inflation which has been rampant for the past two years is finally slowing down led by pork prices (post swine flu) but also in part to tough comparisons. PPI fell 2.1% y/o/y, two tenths more than expected.
9)Taiwan said its October exports jumped 11.2% y/o/y, about double the estimate of up 5.4% led by electronics. Imports though fell by 1% y/o/y but not as bad as the estimate of down 2.2%.
10)The October UK jobless claims figure saw a decline of 29.8k while September was revised sharply lower by almost 70k to -40.2k.
11)In September, German exports rose 2.3% m/o/m, about in line with the estimate of up 2%. Imports though were unchanged vs the forecast of up 1.5%.
1)The Covid spread numbers are quite alarming.
2)For the week ended Oct 23rd the number of those continuing to receive PUA increased by 100k to 9.43mm and those receiving Pandemic Emergency UC rose by another 160k to 4.1mm.
3)Another new record low mortgage rate of 2.98% was again not enough to lift purchase applications which continue to moderate. They fell 2.6% w/o/w and that is the 6th week in the past 7 of declines and they now sit at the lowest level since May. They are still up 16.5% y/o/y but that pace is slowing down too. Refi’s were little changed w/o/w up by .6% but by 67% y/o/y.
4)The preliminary November UoM consumer confidence index fell to 77 from 81.8 and that was below the estimate of little change at 82. The components were very mixed though as Current Conditions were little changed but Expectations fell to 71.3 from 79.2. One year inflation expectations rose two tenths to 2.8%, a 3 month high. The answers to the jobs questions were particularly soft with the unemployment component down by 12 pts to the lowest since April and Income expectations went negative. Spending intentions were mixed. One’s political affiliation impacted confidence as Republicans sentiment fell 10.7 pts m/o/m. But Democrats fell too but by much less, lower by 1.7 pts. Independents though were more confident, by 1.1 pts to the most since March when it printed 89.3.
5)From the Fed’s Senior Loan Officer survey: “Regarding loans to businesses, respondents to the October survey indicated that, on balance, they tightened their standards and terms on C&I loans to firms of all sizes. Banks reported weaker demand for C&I loans from firms of all sizes.” For commercial real estate in all major categories (construction and land development, nonfarm nonresidential loans, and multifamily loans) “banks tightened standards and reported weaker demand.” For households, “banks tightened standards across all categories of residential real estate loans and across all three consumer loan categories – credit card loans, auto loans, and other consumer loans – over the third quarter of 2020 on net.” Notwithstanding the stronger standards, “Banks reported stronger demand for credit card loans, auto loans and most categories of residential real estate loans.”
6)September machinery orders in Japan fell 4.4% m/o/m, more than the estimate of down 1% and follows a slight gain of .2% in August.
7)Industrial production in September in the EU fell by .4% m/o/m, below the forecast of a gain of .6%. That is also down 6.8% y/o/y.
8)The German November ZEW index fell sharply to 39 from 56.1 and that was below the estimate of 44.3. Current Conditions were down by 5 pts to -64.3, a touch below the forecast. ZEW said “Financial experts are concerned about the economic impact of the 2nd wave of Covid and what this will entail. The ZEW indicator of Economic Sentiment has therefore once again significantly decreased in November, indicating a slowdown of economic recovery in Germany. There is also the additional worry that the German economy could head back into recession.”
9)Ahead of a new round of shutdowns in the UK announced in October, the September jobs data already showed weakness. For the 3 months ended September, employment fell by 164k jobs, more than the estimate of 150k and the unemployment rate rose 3 tenths to 4.8%.