Job openings fell below 10mm at 9.93mm in February, down from 10.56mm in January and compares with the estimate (which is very hard to estimate) of 10.5mm. That’s the least amount of jobs available since May 2021. Hirings fell too and the hiring rate was 4% vs 4.1% in January and 4% in December. The quit rate ticked up by one tenth to 2.6% and back to where it was in December.
Digging into where the job openings fell was notable in the two areas that have been most in demand, leisure/hospitality and healthcare/social assistance (also education but mostly healthcare here). Job openings in leisure/hospitality (mostly accommodation) fell by 87k to 1.5mm, the least since August 2022. The healthcare/social assistance (including education) job openings fell to the lowest since August 2021. Construction jobs were back in demand after falling sharply in January (maybe weather influenced). Manufacturing job openings dropped to the least since March 2021. After falling sharply in the last two months of 2022, the ‘information’ category saw another rise in openings. This does include tech. A big category is ‘professional and business services’ and job openings here are at the lowest since April 2021.
Bottom line, it was just a matter of when, not if, we were going to see evidence of lessened job demand in this data point. And at some point the pace of firing’s will pick up as companies try to defend profit margins and respond to the slowing economic backdrop.
The 10 yr yield nose dived in response, falling to 3.46% just before to 3.38% as of this note. The 2 yr fell from 3.99% to 3.83%. I just don’t see the Fed hiking rates in May or any time thereafter in this cycle. The dollar is getting further slammed and gold is ripping higher as is silver. Gold is about $30 from a 5000 yr high.
Job Openings
Leisure/Hospitality