The preliminary April UoM consumer confidence index rose 1.6 pts m/o/m to 86.5 but below the estimate of 89. It was Current Conditions that led to the increase from March while Expectations were unchanged. Of particular note was the 6 tenths rise in one year inflation expectations to 3.7% and that is the highest since March 2012 even as expectations for gasoline …
TLT/Housing starts
For perspective, to almost a penny, TLT (20+ yr Treasury etf) closed yesterday at its 50 day moving average which traded below its 200 day back in early November. TLT In the context of a market that desperately needs more inventory, single family housing starts in March rose to 1.238mm vs 1.074mm in February (likely impacted by weather), 1.15mm in January …
The labor shortage
There is the belief of many economists that in order to have more sustainable inflation the landscape needs wage inflation too that would in turn be reflected in companies taking even more price. Even though this was not the case in Venezuela, Turkey (who announced today the ban of using bitcoin for transactions) and certainly not the hyperinflation situation in …
Home builder sentiment
The April NAHB home builder survey rose 1 pt m/o/m to 83 as expected. The internals were mixed as Present Conditions rose 1 pt m/o/m but Future Expectations fell 2 pts. Prospective Buyers Traffic was up 3 pts m/o/m to 75, the highest since November. Bottom line, the demand is there for new homes because of the dearth of inventory of existing ones and much of that …
A review of the #s
With the help of $650 billion in Q1 2021 of “US household cash flow from tax refunds and stimulus checks…more than three times the $200 billion quarterly refund inflow deposited consistently over the past decade” according to Danielle DiMartino Booth in today’s piece at Quill Intelligence, March core retail sales rose 6.9% m/o/m, although that was slightly below …
Sentiment and little else
Yesterday Investors Intelligence said that Bulls were up again to 63.4 from 60.8 while Bears were little changed at 16.8 vs 16.7. That is the highest bull level since early January and as I’ve said many times, any print 60+ is considered extreme ebullience. But, can stay that way for weeks. The spread between the two of 46.6 is well above the 40 level which is …
Inflation talk widespread
Here are the comments from the just released Fed Beige Book on inflation and wages and it doesn’t read so ‘transitory’, more ‘sticky’ instead. I wish Paul Volcker was around because if he came back and read this Beige Book and then was told that rates were at zero, told they were going to stay that way for another 3 years and the Fed was doing QE at an annualized rate …
Import prices jump
Import prices in March jumped 1.2% m/o/m, 3 tenths more than expected and after rising by 1.3% in February. Yes the comps are easy but import prices were still up 6.9% y/o/y. Ex petroleum, export prices were up by .9% m/o/m, more than double the forecast of up .4%. They were higher by 4.1% y/o/y. Taking out both fuel and food saw import prices up by .8% m/o/m and …
A few things
In the context of the inflation debate, if there is a word that is opposite 'transitory' it would be 'sticky.' The Atlanta Fed's sticky CPI print for March out yesterday was up 3.5% (one month annualized change). That is up from 2.3% in February, 1.1% in January and 1% in December. The sticky core rate was higher by 3.7% vs 2.5% in February, .9% in January and .6% in …
Solid auction
In contrast to the mediocre 3 yr and 10 yr auctions this week, the 30 yr was solid. The yield of 2.32% was priced below the when issued of almost 2.34%. The bid to cover of 2.47 was above the 12 month average of 2.32. Also, dealers were left with 17% of the auction vs the one year average of 21%, leaving the balance with direct and indirect bidders. Well if …
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.