Positives 1)Initial jobless claims fell to 730k from 841k last week (revised down by 20k) and that is down from 825k last week. This brings the 4 week average to 808k from 828k. Those getting PUA fell to 451k from 513k last week and vs 342k in the week prior. Continuing claims, delayed by a week, totaled 4.42mm from 4.52mm in the week prior. That was 40k less …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 2/26
The February Chicago manufacturing index fell to 59.5 from 63.8 and that was a bit below the estimate of 61. The six month average is 60.2. New orders and backlogs were higher m/o/m while inventories fell. Supplier deliveries remained elevated and rose further. Employment dropped while prices paid rose again. Again, manufacturing has led the recovery and we'll see to …
The January PCE rose .3% m/o/m both headline and core. The headline rate was as expected but the core rate was above the estimate of an increase of one tenth. The y/o/y increase for both is 1.5%. Goods prices rose .5% y/o/y and positive for the 1st time since February 2020 and driven by a rise in durable goods. Services inflation held at 1.9% and has been pretty …
[Read more...] about Inflation, income, spending/Trade deficit
I remain bearish on bonds but fully acknowledge how oversold we are right now. At yesterday's close TLT had a 14 day RSI of just 18 and a 7 day of 10. Anything under 30 starts to get oversold. Now this is only one metric but one that has gotten very stretched. While we saw another ugly night in Asian bonds, European bonds are bouncing a touch ex UK (see below) which …
The 7 yr note auction was awful. The yield of 1.195% was well above the when issued of about 1.15%. The bid to cover of 2.04 was well below the one yr average of 2.45. Also, that is the lowest bid to cover for a 7 yr note auction in the history of 7 yr note auctions going back to 2009. Dealers got stuck with 40% of the auction, almost double the 12 month average. …
[Read more...] about 7 yr auction was awful, yields at highs of day
While many of us having been watching the rapid rise in long rates, what is very notable today is the jump in the 5 yr yield. Yesterday, Janet Yellan & Co auctioned off 5 yr paper at a yield of .62%. The bid to cover was very light and that yield was above the when issued, both pointing to a weak auction. Today, the 5 yr yield is at .72%, a double from the .36% …
[Read more...] about 5 yr yield has now doubled since 12/31, Housing
Initial jobless claims fell to 730k from 841k last week (revised down by 20k) and that is down from 825k last week. This brings the 4 week average to 808k from 828k. Those getting PUA fell to 451k from 513k last week and vs 342k in the week prior. Continuing claims, delayed by a week, totaled 4.42mm from 4.52mm in the week prior. That was 40k less than expected. …
Well, when the bond market wants to run, it's going to run much faster than any central banker and that again is on full display today. Also, be careful what you wish for. Don't spend all your waking hours to artificially suppress interest rates and then root for higher inflation because when the market thinks that inflation will come, it will run you over. I again …
New home sales in January totaled 923k, above the estimate of 856k and up from 885k in December (revised up from 842k). This figure peaked out at 979k last July but certainly is running at a good pace as the market desperately needs more new supply. Months’ supply was little changed at 4.0 vs 4.1 and the median home price was up 5.3% y/o/y (very volatile figure month …
The jump in mortgage rates had an immediate impact on mortgage applications. With the average 30 yr rate rising 10 bps w/o/w to 3.08%, purchases fell 11.6% w/o/w and are down in 4 of the last 5 weeks to the lowest level since May. The y/o/y increase has slowed to 6.9%. Refi's declined by 11.3% w/o/w but are still up 50% y/o/y. Combining 10% home price increases with …
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.
