Positives 1)Initial jobless claims fell to just 199k, well below the estimate of 260k and down from 268k last week. That's the lowest print since the summer of 1969. Delayed by a week, continuing claims fell by another 60k to a fresh post Covid low at 2.049mm. 2)Personal income in October rose .5% m/o/m, 3 tenths more than expected. Specifically looking at …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 11/26
Before I get to the data (and sorry it’s a bit late), the fed funds futures response to the always dovish SF Fed president Mary Daly, but who does not vote in 2022, and who expressed the possibility of supporting a quicker taper depending on the data is now pricing in a 66% of a rate hike in May vs 54% yesterday. By year end 2022, the market is fully pricing in 2 rate …
Initial jobless claims fell to just 199k, well below the estimate of 260k and down from 268k last week. That is a print I’ve never seen so low while alive as it printed less than 200k in the summer of 1969. It got as low as 206k in January 2020. This brings the 4 week average to 252k from 273k. Delayed by a week, continuing claims fell by another 60k to a fresh post …
[Read more...] about “It was the summer of ’69…”/Durables/Trade deficit
Where everybody knows your name, //www.youtube.com/watch?v=fX6bQkiu8JI, and wait for it. In case you missed yesterday the comments from now Buck and a Quarter Tree, they said "The $1.25 price point will enable Dollar Tree to return to its historical gross margin range by mitigating historically high merchandise cost increases, including freight and …
[Read more...] about Buck and a Quarter Tree/Disturbing BBY comments/Other
After weak 2 yr and 5 yr auctions, today’s 7 yr was very good. The yield of 1.588% was 1 bp below the when issued. The bid to cover of 2.42 was well above the one year average of 2.28. Lastly, direct and indirect bidders took down 83% of the auction, above the 12 month average of 78%. Bottom line, the highest yield since February 2020 brought out the buyers and if …
The November Markit manufacturing and services composite index fell to 56.5 from 57.6 with a m/o/m gain in manufacturing offset by a drop in services. For perspective, the 56.5 print compares with the 6 month average of 58. With manufacturing, “the rise in output accelerated from October, as inflows of new orders expanded at a sharper pace” but “As numerous …
The 2 yr yield is up another 4 bps today to .635% and has 'officially' hiked rates by 50 bps this year as it started at .12%. Of course the Fed hasn't done it themselves yet via the fed funds rate but the market has spoken. While the 10 yr yield continues to creep higher too, the 2s/10s spread at 100 bps today matches the most narrow since July. With the 5 yr yield …
After the weak 2 yr auction, the 5 yr note auction was as well. The yield of 1.319% was priced 1 bp above the when issued. The bid to cover of 2.34 was below the one year average of 2.38. And, dealers were left with the most amount of a 5 yr auction since February at 27%. In response, the 5 yr yield is at the high of the day at 1.30% and that too is the highest …
The 2 yr note auction, highly sensitive to expectations for Fed policy with respect to the fed funds rate, was very weak. The yield was .623%, one bp above the pricing just prior. The bid to cover of 2.36 was well below the one year average of 2.54 and the 5 yr average of 2.64. Lastly, dealers were left with 37% of the auction, above the 12 month average of 29% and …
Existing home sales in October totaled 6.34mm, 140k more than expected and up a touch from the 6.29mm print in September. As this is measuring closings, assume most contracts were signed in the summer. Inventories remained lean at 2.4 months, the same pace seen in September. In turn, the median home price was up 13.1% y/o/y. First time buyers are the most impacted …
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.
