Positives 1)Initial jobless claims fell to 473k from a revised 507k last week. The estimate was 490k while last week was revised from 498k. The 4 week average fell to 534k from 562k. PUA was little changed at 104k from 102k. Delayed by a week, continuing claims fell by 45k w/o/w but has essentially flat lined over the past 4 weeks. 2)The number of job openings …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events: 5/14
What’s the definition of transitory? Well, in the just released UoM May consumer confidence number, one year inflation expectations jumped to 4.6% from 3.4% in April, matching the highest since 2008 and the 5-10 yr prediction (nonsense prediction that far out however), rose 4 tenths m/o/m to 3.1%, a 10 yr high. I don’t want to be premature here with the …
After a strong March, core retail sales in April (taking out auto’s, gasoline stations and building materials) fell 1.5% m/o/m, worse than the estimate of down .2% but partially offset by a 7 tenths upward revision to March which saw a 7.6% m/o/m gain. January sales jumped 8.4% after the December fiscal spending bill was passed, fell back by 3.3% in February and …
I have nothing to say of relevance until the 8:30am data. …
As the 10 yr note auction was good yesterday, the 30 yr bond auction today was not. The yield of 2.395% was almost 2 bps above the when issued. The bid to cover of 2.22 was below the 12 month average of 2.33 and the lowest since February. Direct and indirect bidders took down 80% of the auction, about in line with the average over the past year. With the 30 yr …
The April PPI jumped .6% m/o/m, double the estimate and comes after a 1% rise in March. The core rate was higher by .7% vs the estimate of a .4% increase and matches the rise seen in March. For those that want to see the easy comp y/o/y increase, it was up 6.2% headline and 4.1% core. Steel prices were the standout on the goods side with its 18.4% spike. Food …
We are getting closer to a plus sign in German 10 yr bund yields, only 10+ bps to go, the least negative since May 2019. The Italian 10 yr yield is back above 1% and the UK gilt is just below 1% at .92%. Even in Switzerland, a bastion of negative rates, their 10 yr yield is the least negative since January 2019 at -.15%. The ECB will be discussing slowing the pace of …
The 10 yr note auction was pretty good. The yield of 1.684% was about 1 bp below the when issued price. The bid to cover of 2.45 was a touch above the one year average of 2.42. Also, direct and indirect bidders took 80% of the auction, above the 12 month average of 76%. Bottom line, notwithstanding the very hot CPI print, buyers took advantage of the highest 10 yr …
Headline CPI jumped .8% m/o/m and the core rate by .9% in April, blowing past expectations of up .2% and .3% respectively. That core rate gain is the most since 1982. No easy comp influence here. Just a plain old spike in prices. I will only focus on m/o/m changes here to block out the noise of last year. Goods inflation, the focus of all the supply …
[Read more...] about The Fed is halfway to their annual 2% target IN ONE MONTH
According to AAA, the average gallon of gasoline skipped right to $3.01 yesterday, 2.3 cents, helped by the pipeline problem but it was headed there anyway. It's the 14th straight day of gains. That is the highest since October 2014. Yeah Fed, you are getting the inflation you want and sticking it to those least able to afford it. AAA Avg Gallon of …
[Read more...] about Gasoline/Another Dudley prediction/Other
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.
