Positives 1).As of this writing it looks like something positive will come of the trade negotiations. 2) Initial jobless claims totaled 210k, 10k less than expected and down from 220k last week. As a print of 206k came out, the 4 week average rose 1k to 214k. Delayed by a week, continuing claims rose 29k but off the lowest since April. 3) The preliminary UoM …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 10/11
Rate cut odds of 25 bps for the late October FOMC meeting are down to 65% from 78% yesterday and 82% on Wednesday. I’m of the belief that if this trade deal is of substance and rolls back all of the consumer focused tariffs (those put on September 1 and those expected on December 15th) and limits the existing industrial targeted tariffs at 25%, there will be no rate …
The preliminary UoM consumer confidence index rose to 96 from 93.2 and that was 4 pts above the estimate. Most of the gain was driven by the 5 pt rise in Current Conditions as Expectations were up by 1.4 pts. One year inflation expectations fell to 2.5% from 2.8% and that matches the recent low seen in April. Some see this as a bad thing but a lower cost of living is …
So the biggest question for today to be answered if there is a deal of some sort is what's the story with the IP situation since I thought this was the main purpose of the entire battle. I want to repeat that I'm fully on board in fighting for the protection of US technology but always had a problem with the chosen tactics in the fight. Separately, before this trade …
The September consumer price was flat m/o/m and up .1% at the core, both one tenth below the estimate. Due to rounding though, the core rate rose 2.4% as expected, holding at an 11 yr high. The headline increase was 1.7%, the same pace as in August. Services inflation ex energy continues to drive the core rate as it rose .3% m/o/m for the 4th straight month and …
If you didn't happen to see, It was a wild night in the S&P futures with a decline of about 30 pts when there was talk of the Chinese delegation cutting its trip early by a day. That was denied and we rallied back to almost unchanged only to fall back by about 25 pts and now to sit close to the flat line on chatter that we would allow some buying of non essential …
[Read more...] about Wild night/To QE or not to QE/Junk credit/Data
I will not be publishing tomorrow due to the Jewish holiday. Happy new year to those that celebrate. …
Headline PPI fell .3% m/o/m, well below the estimate of up 1%. Goods prices fell .4% with ¾ of the decline related to gasoline prices. Ex food and energy saw goods prices fall by .1% m/o/m and it’s been trending around zero for most of this year. Because of a full 1% m/o/m drop in trade/transportation/warehousing, in light of the slowdown in manufacturing, services …
The September NFIB small business optimism index fell to 101.8 from 103.1 and that matches the lowest since February. Plans to Hire fell 3 pts to 17%, the least since February. Capital spending plans fell 1 pt to 27% after rising by a like amount in August. There was no change from August in inventory plans. Job openings also held at its previous month's level but …
[Read more...] about Small business/Can’t we just wait a week?/Other
In the story over the weekend that China wanted to narrow the focus of the negotiations, the discussion on US IP was a part of it while industrial policies and subsidies were not. Well, the Chinese Commerce Ministry is now saying today that the negotiation specifically on IP is going to be their way or no way. In May, the deal on the table the US wanted included …
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.
