Succinct Summation of the Weeks’ Events: Positives, 1)Payrolls grew by a whopping 517k, well more than the estimate of 188k and the two prior months were revised up by 71k. That’s the biggest one month job gain since February 2022. The private sector made up 443k of this job gain with the balance from the government. The household survey said 894k jobs were …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events
The January ISM services index rebounded to 55.2 from 49.2 and that was well better than the estimate of 50.5. New orders bounced to 60.4 from 45.2 while backlogs were up slightly at 52.9. Inventory remains below 50 but did tick up by 4.1 pts m/o/m to 49.2. Notwithstanding the BLS report, the Employment component was smack on 50 from 49.6 in the month before. Supplier …
[Read more...] about ISM better but breadth worse/S&P Global PMI still below 50
Payrolls grew by a whopping 517k, well more than the estimate of 188k and the two prior months were revised up by 71k. That’s the biggest one month job gain since February 2022. The private sector made up 443k of this job gain with the balance from the government. The household survey said 894k jobs were added in January while the labor force grew by 866k with the net …
Wow, what a hectic and exhausting week with everything going on. Let's dig into the obvious, the interesting earnings comments from the 3 notables that reported last night. AMZN: "We've seen that during periods of economic uncertainty, consumers are very careful about how they allocate their resources and where they choose to spend their …
US 10 yr yield sitting right on its 200 day moving average. …
Initial jobless claims fell 3k w/o/w to 183k and that was 12k less than estimated. This brings the 4 week average to 192k from 198k and that is the least since May. Continuing claims fell to 1.66mm from 1.67mm in the week before but still well above low of 1.3mm last May. The bottom line is the same with the modest pace of firings, and for those that are losing …
[Read more...] about Claims/Productivity/ECB, along with Fed, tightens but market eases
The challenge for Powell in terms of messaging is that because markets are desperately looking for anything dovish from him, when he speaks hawkish as he did yesterday at times it is quickly forgotten when he gave the dovish side with the latter quickly canceling out the former with respect to market impact. Also, let's highlight again his comment at the …
[Read more...] about A few more Powell comments and then I’m done on this/Other
I’d characterize the Powell press conference as someone who didn’t really want to push back on much of the markets messaging outside of maybe adding another rate hike. He said, “We’re going to stay higher for longer but we’ll see.” On financial conditions he said they are not much different than where they were at the last FOMC statement in mid December. I recommend …
As has been standard recently, each FOMC statement is really only a tweak to the prior one with most of the wording the same. It thus again makes what Powell says in the press conference the most important part of Fed day. They altered the first paragraph comments on inflation to acknowledge the slowing recently seen to say simply “Inflation has eased somewhat but …
The January ISM manufacturing index fell 1 pt m/o/m to 47.4 and that was below the estimate of 48. It marks the 3rd straight month below 50. Ex Covid, this is the weakest figure since June 2009. New orders were very soft, declining to 42.5 from 45.1. Ex Covid, March 2009 was the last time that level was seen. Backlogs rose by 2 pts but are still at only 43.4. …
[Read more...] about Yes, the US manufacturing sector is in a recession/Job openings
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor. Each day The Boock Report provides summaries and commentary on the macro data and news that matter, with analysis of what it all means and how it fits together.
