Positives 1)Initial jobless claims totaled 290k, 7k less than expected and compares with 296k last week (revised up by 3k). This brings the 4 week average down to 320k from 335k last week and vs 345k the week before. Delayed by a week, continuing claims fell by another 122k after dropping by 124k last week. It's now down by 339k over the past 4 weeks to 2.48mm. It …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 10/22
The Markit US October manufacturing and services PMI rose to 57.3 from 55 and it was all due to the gain in services as it rose to 58.2 from 54.9. Manufacturing slipped by 1.5 pts to a still high 59.2 as while there are clear supply problems, demand is still good. With services, "Driving growth in October was the quickest rise in inflows of new work since July, …
So we saw the sharp rise in US inflation breakevens yesterday with the 5 yr rising by 10 bps to 2.91%. That is the biggest one day move since April 13th, 2020 and comes even though the CRB index was down more than 1%. This matches the highest level ever for the 5 yr going back to 2002. The 10 yr inflation breakeven rose to match a 15 year high at 2.65%. This has …
[Read more...] about Inflation expectations are going vertical
Initial jobless claims totaled 290k, 7k less than expected and compares with 296k last week (revised up by 3k). This brings the 4 week average down to 320k from 335k last week and vs 345k the week before. Delayed by a week, contnuing claims fell by another 122k after dropping by 124k last week. It's now down by 339k over the past 4 weeks to 2.48mm. It was 1.77mm right …
[Read more...] about Claims/Philly mfr’g/Inflation breakevens
The thing about those that are bullish on Bitcoin and those that like gold is that they are essentially soul mates in terms of the rational for their bullishness. There is an anti central bank mentality, disrespect for how fiat currencies have been treated and certainly now worries about inflation. You’ve heard me rant plenty over the years on my criticism of Fed …
[Read more...] about Gold vs Bitcoin should be Gold and Bitcoin
So the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow Q3 estimate is now down to .5%. It was 6% two months ago. Higher inflation is to blame as last week's retail sales report was negative in real terms as I pointed out last Friday. They also trimmed 'gross private domestic investment' estimates. This gets to the whole point that wanting higher inflation actually is a detriment to growth as it …
[Read more...] about This is now a really important stat to watch each month
Housing starts in September totaled 1.55mm, below the estimate of 1.615mm and vs 1.58mm in August. Single family starts were unchanged with August at 1.08mm but that is the lowest since April. This compares with the 6 month average of 1.099mm. Multi family starts, always volatile month to month, fell to 475k from 500k in August and vs 450k in July. The 6 month average …
With the Fed first focused on cutting back on asset purchases and certainly not rate hikes yet, don't expect anything new from the four members speaking today, 3 of which we heard from last week. Daly, Barkin, Bostic are speaking again with new commentary from Governor Waller who has turned out to be more hawkish than his colleagues. Here are some more anecdotes on …
US industrial production in September fell by 1.3% m/o/m, well worse than the estimate of up .1% and August was revised down by 5 tenths. Weakness in utility output and motor vehicles/parts were the main reasons. The former is typically weather but the latter is for sure the shortages of key components. Versus last year, the production of autos/parts fell almost 14%. …
We have another global rate rise and it started in Asia, particularly New Zealand who reported that inflation rose 4.9% y/o/y in Q3 and 2.2% q/o/q, both well above the estimate of up 4.2% and 1.5% respectively. The rate response was pretty swift and vertical with their 10 yr yield spiking by 15.5 bps to 2.41%. It was 2% three weeks ago and at the highest level since …
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.
