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Positives 1)Delayed by two weeks, those still getting pandemic unemployment assistance fell by 553k and those continuing to receive the emergency kind declined by 576k. 2)Housing starts in June totaled 1.643mm, 53k more than anticipated, partially offset by a 26k unit downward revision to May to 1.546mm. Breaking it down, single family starts made up 1.16mm of …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 7/23

Positives 1)Core retail sales were as expected in June when we include the downward revision to May. June sales were 7 tenths more than expected but May was revised down by the same 7 tenths. In dollars, core retail sales were $341.5b in June vs $342.7 in April and vs $344.1b in March when the stimulus checks were mailed. 2)Those filing under pandemic …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 7/16

Positives 1)Those filing for PUA fell to 99k from 114k. Continuing claims were down by 145k from the week prior and at 3.34mm, it is the lowest since pre Covid. Those still receiving PUA declined by 111k and that is the 7th week in the past 8 that has seen a drop to 5.8mm. Continuing emergency claims fell by 354k to under 5mm at 4.9mm, a 5 month low. 2)The …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 7/9

Positives 1)June payrolls grew by 850k, 130k more than expected with a combined upward revision of 15k to the two prior months. The private sector added 662k of this which was 57k higher than the forecast. The all in U6 rate did fall to 9.8% and that is the lowest since March 2020 and the number of job leavers jumped again which goes to the large number of job …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events: 7/2

Positives 1)Continuing claims, delayed by a week in its reporting, fell to 3.39mm from 3.52mm and that was below the estimate of 3.46mm and the lowest since last March. Delayed by two weeks, those still receiving PUA fell by another 175k. 2)Spending, when including the April revision, was as expected with income slightly better with a smaller than expected drop. …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events: 6/25

Positives 1)However subtle, Jay Powell opened the door to the beginning of a trimming of the Fed's asset purchases at some point which we assume to be in the next quarter or two. St. Louis Fed president Jim Bullard furthered the commentary on CNBC by saying the tapering discussion is now wide open and that inflation is now rebounding more than he expected. He also …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events: 6/18

Positives 1)Initial jobless claims fell to 376k from 385k, but just above the estimate of 370k. The 4 week average fell to 403k from 428k. PUA fell by 2k w/o/w to 71k. Also positively, continuing claims fell by 258k after rising by 146k as hopefully some of those job openings are getting filled. Delayed by two weeks, those still receiving emergency claims fell by …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 6/11

Positives 1)ADP said a net 978k private sector jobs were added in May, well more than the estimate of 650k but partly offset by an 88k downward revision to April to 654k. The job distribution by business size was well balanced. ADP said “While goods producers grew at a steady pace, it is service providers that accounted for the lion’s share of the gains, far …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 6/4

Positives 1)As we head into Memorial Day Weekend, I just wanted to send this link again as we should all be grateful that we (specifically our genius scientists, doctors and healthcare workers) essentially conquered Covid, //www.youtube.com/watch?v=02G1IIgyhfo and it’s time to live life again. 2)Initial jobless claims fell to 406k, 20k less than expected …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 5/28