Free Access

Positives 1)”We are coming down to the short strokes” on this phase one deal says Larry Kudlow. Let’s hope so and that it includes substance and a roll back in at least some tariffs. 2)The producer price index in October rose .4% m/o/m headline and .3% core and both were one tenth more than expected. The y/o/y gains though did slow from September with the …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 11/15

Positives 1)While this potentially could be momentous (sorry for the hyperbole), disruptive, destructive to holders and possibly temporary if I’m wrong, the shrinking pile of negative yielding securities to the lowest since June is desperately needed in order to reestablish a more normal, functioning financial system. 2)The October ISM services index rose to …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 11/8

Positives 1)Payrolls in October grew by 128k, well better than the estimate of 85k and the two prior months were revised up by a net 95k. The unemployment rate ticked up by one tenth to 3.6% but because the size of the labor force grew by 325k, above the increase in the household survey of 241k (with a gain in the key 25-54 age area). The all in rate rose one …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 11/1

Positives 1).The Markit US manufacturing and services composite index in October rose a touch to 51.2 from 51 in September. Manufacturing rose .4 pts to 51.5 and services went to 51 form 50.9. Market said the lift in manufacturing was “helped by stronger growth of output, new orders and employment” and also “an increase in new export sales for the first time …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 10/25

Positives 1).As of this writing it looks like something positive will come of the trade negotiations. 2) Initial jobless claims totaled 210k, 10k less than expected and down from 220k last week. As a print of 206k came out, the 4 week average rose 1k to 214k. Delayed by a week, continuing claims rose 29k but off the lowest since April. 3) The preliminary UoM …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 10/11

Positives 1).Payrolls in September grew by 136k, 9k less than expected but the two prior months were revised up by a net 45k. The private sector added 114k jobs vs the estimate of 130k and the two prior months were revised up by 17k. Thus, we can call the private sector data pretty much as expected when stretching out over 3 months, but averaging just 119k. It …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 10/4

Positives 1) Both sides are showing some signs of bending on the trade negotiations with a combination of economic and political pressures building. 2) The preliminary September UoM consumer confidence index ticked up a touch to 92 from 89.8 and that was 1.2 pts above the forecast and which follows the 8.6 pt drop in August. Both current conditions and …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 9/13