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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 12/3

Positives 1)The household survey in stark contrast to the BLS establishment survey saw a large 1.136mm job gain and combined with the increase in the labor force of 594k, the unemployment rate fell 4 tenths m/o/m to just 4.2% vs 4.4% in March 2020 and 3.5% in the two months before that. The U6 rate declined by 5 tenths to 7.8% vs 8.8% in March 2020 and 7% in …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 11/26

Positives 1)Initial jobless claims fell to just 199k, well below the estimate of 260k and down from 268k last week. That's the lowest print since the summer of 1969. Delayed by a week, continuing claims fell by another 60k to a fresh post Covid low at 2.049mm. 2)Personal income in October rose .5% m/o/m, 3 tenths more than expected. Specifically looking at …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 11/19

Positives 1)Initial jobless claims totaled 268k, 8k more than expected and after a print of 269k last week. This though brings the 4 week average down to 273k from 279k, a post Covid low. Continuing claims, delayed by a week, fell by 129k to 2.08mm, also a new post Covid low. 2)Core retail sales in October rose by 1.6% m/o/m, above the estimate of up .9% partly …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 11/12

Positives 1)Initial jobless claims fell to a fresh post Covid low at 267k and lower w/o/w for the 6th straight week. That though was 7k more than expected. 2)The 8 bps drop in mortgage rates and 14 bps over the past 2 weeks helped to lift mortgage applications. Purchases rose 2.7% w/o/w but remain down by 4.1% y/o/y on tough comps and a moderating pace of …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 11/5

Positives 1)Payrolls in October grew by 531k, 80k more than expected and the prior two months were revised up by a total of 235k. The private sector in October added 604k jobs, well more than the forecast of 420k. The government shed 73k jobs mostly due to a decline in public education. The household survey saw a 359k job increase and with the smaller 104k increase …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 10/29

Positives 1)Initial jobless claims totaled 281k, 7k less than expected and down by 10k w/o/w. The 4 week average fell under 300k at 299k vs 320k last week. Also positive was the 237k person drop in continuing claims to 2.243, another post Covid low. 2)Personal income in September fell by 1% m/o/m, more than the estimate of down .3% but it was all because of the …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 10/22

Positives 1)Initial jobless claims totaled 290k, 7k less than expected and compares with 296k last week (revised up by 3k). This brings the 4 week average down to 320k from 335k last week and vs 345k the week before. Delayed by a week, continuing claims fell by another 122k after dropping by 124k last week. It's now down by 339k over the past 4 weeks to 2.48mm. It …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 10/8

Positives 1)The September household survey within the BLS report said 526k were added and combined with the drop of 183k in the size of the labor force and the unemployment rate now has a 4 handle for the 1st time since pre Covid at 4.8%. The comprehensive U6 rate fell to 8.5% from 8.8% and that compares with 8.8% in March 2020 and 7% in February 2020. On the wage …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 10/1

Positives 1)Amazing news from Merck with its antiviral pill cutting the risk of hospitalization or death by 50%. 2)The US September ISM manufacturing index rose 1.2 pts m/o/m to 61.1 and that was a bit better than the estimate of 59.5. Of the 18 industries surveyed, 17 saw growth vs 15 in August and 17 in the two months prior. 17 of 18 industries saw slower …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 9/24

Positives 1)While the Fed continues to drag its feet with cutting back on buying bonds, it finally does seem that it will begin in December. 2)The Norges Bank in Norway hiked rates off zero by 25 bps. 3)The Bank of England expressed concern with inflation and a rate hike is possible in Q1 2022 after QE ends in December. 4)Those filing for PUA fell again to …

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