Positives 1) Initial jobless claims for the week ended April 6th broke below 200k at 196k. That was 14k below the forecast and down from 204k last week (revised from 202k). That’s the lowest print since I was born. This brings the 4 week average down to 207k from 214k and that is also the lowest since 1969. Continuing claims, delayed by a week, fell to the lowest …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 4/12
Positives 1) March payrolls grew by 196k, 19k more than expected while the two prior months were revised up by 14k. The private sector component though had less of an upside print as jobs here rose by 182k, 5k more than expected. The household survey saw a loss of 201k jobs after a gain of 255k in the month prior. Because the labor force shrunk by 224k, the …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 4/5
Positives 1) Initial jobless claims totaled 211k, 9k less than expected and last week was revised down by 5k to 216k (as part of annual revisions). This downtick brings the 4 week average lower to 217k from 221k last week and that’s the lowest since mid January. Delayed by a week, continuing claims rose 13k after a similar drop in the week prior. 2) The MBA …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 3/29
Positives 1) Initial jobless claims totaled 221k, 4k less than expected and down from 230k last week (revised up by 1k). This brings the 4 week average to 225k, up 1k because a 217k print falls out of the average. Continuing claims, delayed by a week, fell by 27k after rising by 19k last week. 2) The March Philly manufacturing index rose to 13.7 after going …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 3/22
Positives 1) January new home sales totaled 607k, 15k less than expected but December was revised up by 31k to 652k and which followed below 600k prints in the two prior months. Smoothing out this volatile number puts the 3 month average at 619k vs the 6 month average of 603k and the 12 month average of 621k. The average in 2017 was 616k. Months' supply rose to …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 3/15
Positives 1) Within the payroll number, average hourly earnings grew by .4% m/o/m, one tenth more than expected and higher by 3.4% y/o/y, the best since 2009. Average hourly earnings though were up just .1% m/o/m as hours worked fell. The y/o/y increase was 3.1%. 2) Initial jobless claims totaled 223k, 2k less than expected while last week was revised up by 1k …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 3/8
Positives 1) It does seem like the US and China are wrapping up the final details of a trade deal that has real substance to it. Question remains though, what happens with the tariffs currently in place. 2) The US economy grew by 2.6% q/o/q annualized in Q4 and that was 4 tenths more than expected. On a y/o/y basis, growth was up by 3.1%. The gain was led by …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 3/1
Positives 1) The February NAHB home builder index surprised to the upside with a print of 62, 3 pts better and up 4 pts from January. The 6 pt combined gain in January and February follows the 12 pt drop in November and December. The Present Situation rose 3 pts m/o/m and is back to where it was in November at 67. Expectations jumped by 5 pts to 68 and is 3 pts …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 2/22
Positives 1) The government will not partially close again this time around. 2) Headline PPI in January was one tenth less than expected when including a revision to December. The core rate though was up .2% m/o/m as expected and 2.6% y/o/y. Trade costs jumped by .8% and transportation/warehousing was higher by .5%. 3) In December, there were 7.3mm job openings, a …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 2/15
The January CPI saw no change at the headline level and a .2% core rate of increase which brings the y/o/y increases to 1.6% and 2.2% respectively. This is in line with expectations. Another decline in oil prices kept a lid on the headline figure. Food prices were up .2% m/o/m and 1.6% y/o/y. In what continues to be the case, services inflation ex energy remains …
[Read more...] about Please stop telling me there is no inflation
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.
