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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 10/11

Positives 1).As of this writing it looks like something positive will come of the trade negotiations. 2) Initial jobless claims totaled 210k, 10k less than expected and down from 220k last week. As a print of 206k came out, the 4 week average rose 1k to 214k. Delayed by a week, continuing claims rose 29k but off the lowest since April. 3) The preliminary UoM …

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It’s time to buy stock in shovel makers

Much is being made of the weekend story from Bloomberg News that China is honing in on only a limited deal in coming days. As I believe that the most important thing we can get out of China is the protection of our technology, and that is supposedly a part of a limited deal, I'm ok with that. I also believe that the administration will do anything they can not to have …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 10/4

Positives 1).Payrolls in September grew by 136k, 9k less than expected but the two prior months were revised up by a net 45k. The private sector added 114k jobs vs the estimate of 130k and the two prior months were revised up by 17k. Thus, we can call the private sector data pretty much as expected when stretching out over 3 months, but averaging just 119k. It …

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We’ve tariffed our way into a mfr’g recession

The September ISM manufacturing index fell further into contraction at 47.8 vs 49.1 in August and below the estimate of exactly 50. That is the weakest print since June 2009. New orders were little changed but still below 50 at 47.3. Backlogs fell 1.2 pts to 45.1 and that is the 5th time in a row it’s been below 50. The weakness in business was most obvious within …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 9/13

Positives 1) Both sides are showing some signs of bending on the trade negotiations with a combination of economic and political pressures building. 2) The preliminary September UoM consumer confidence index ticked up a touch to 92 from 89.8 and that was 1.2 pts above the forecast and which follows the 8.6 pt drop in August. Both current conditions and …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 9/6

Positives 1) Within the payroll report, the household survey reflected a jump of 590k jobs (the biggest contribution from those aged 25-54) which combined with an increase of 571k in the size of the labor force kept the unemployment rate unchanged at 3.7% as expected. The participation rate rose two tenths to 63.2% which does match the most since 2013 thanks to a …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 8/23

This is coming to you early because I'm traveling today and will be away next week and not publishing. Putting aside what I think about the economy and what the Fed should do, I believe Jay Powell's commentary will adhere to his mid cycle adjustment theme in which he'll endorse a September rate cut but won't commit past that. He's already got a likely two …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 8/16

Positives 1)The Administration realized that since most of the goods that will be sold in the holiday shopping season have already been ordered with pricing in place, US importers were going eat about all of the intended tariffs. Hence, shifting about $165b of the affected to mid December. 2)July retail sales at the core level (ex auto's, gasoline and building …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 8/9

Positives 1)Initial jobless claims totaled 209k, 6k less than expected and down from 217k last week (revised up by 2k). This brings the 4 week average to 212k which is unchanged with the week prior because a print of 208k dropped out. Continuing claims, delayed by a week, fell by 15k after rising by 22k last week. 2)Refi's continue to be the only notable …

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Succinct Summation of the week’s events – 8/2

Positives 1)The Federal Reserve is responding the only way they know how, to ease policy at the prospect of an economic slowdown, this time due to 'global developments.' Separately, It is the rare central banker that cites financial markets and the desire not to spike the punch bowl for not wanting to cut rates. Quite refreshing to hear. Boston Fed President said …

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