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This is coming to you early because I'm traveling today and will be away next week and not publishing. Putting aside what I think about the economy and what the Fed should do, I believe Jay Powell's commentary will adhere to his mid cycle adjustment theme in which he'll endorse a September rate cut but won't commit past that. He's already got a likely two …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 8/23

Positives 1)The Administration realized that since most of the goods that will be sold in the holiday shopping season have already been ordered with pricing in place, US importers were going eat about all of the intended tariffs. Hence, shifting about $165b of the affected to mid December. 2)July retail sales at the core level (ex auto's, gasoline and building …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 8/16

Positives 1)Initial jobless claims totaled 209k, 6k less than expected and down from 217k last week (revised up by 2k). This brings the 4 week average to 212k which is unchanged with the week prior because a print of 208k dropped out. Continuing claims, delayed by a week, fell by 15k after rising by 22k last week. 2)Refi's continue to be the only notable …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 8/9

Positives 1)The Federal Reserve is responding the only way they know how, to ease policy at the prospect of an economic slowdown, this time due to 'global developments.' Separately, It is the rare central banker that cites financial markets and the desire not to spike the punch bowl for not wanting to cut rates. Quite refreshing to hear. Boston Fed President said …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the week’s events – 8/2

Positives 1)GDP in Q2 surprised to the upside with a 2.1% performance. The estimate was 1.8% and this brings the year to date average to 2.6%. The 2018 growth rate was revised down to 2.5% (4th Q over 4th Q) as part of benchmark revisions. Personal spending was the main catalyst as it grew by 4.3%, 3 tenths more than expected after a modest 1.1% gain in Q1. …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 7/26

Positives 1)Core retail sales in June exceeded expectations with a .7% m/o/m increase, more than twice the estimate of up .3% and May was revised up one tenth to a gain of .6%. Versus last year, core sales improved to a 4.6% y/o/y increase. 2)The July Philly manufacturing index saw a sharp snapback, rising to 21.8 from .3 and that was well above the estimate of 5.0. …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 7/19

Positives 1)I’m sympathetic to Powell’s belief that growth is moderating and he wants to take back that December hike. 2)Initial jobless claims totaled 209k, 12k less than expected vs 222k last week. However because of the 4th of July holiday we can throw out the number and wait until next week to average it out. 3)The MBA said mortgage applications to buy a …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 7/12

Positives 1)I wish Christine Lagarde the best of luck and hope she can be politically influential in stressing and encouraging governments to emphasize more fiscal policy and rely less on monetary policy. 2)Of the new Trump picks for the Fed and if appointed, Judy Shelton will be a breath of fresh air in introducing a new frame of monetary thought. Chris Waller …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 7/5

  Positives 1)Pending home sales in May, measuring contracts signed of existing homes, rose 1.1% m/o/m as expected. Sales in the Northeast rebounded by 3.5% after 3 straight months of declines. Sales also were up in the Midwest but flat down South and lower out West. 2)Refi’s still are responding the most to the drop in mortgage rates as they grew by …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 6/28

Positives 1) The Fed validated the pricing in the bond market that rate hikes are likely coming in response to mostly the manufacturing slowdown and weakness in overseas economies. They are trying to get ahead of any more pronounced slowdown and broader spillover to the services sector which has just begun. 2) Negotiations are back on with China and it’s been …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 6/21