Positives 1)Pfizer and BioNTech’s vaccine showed 90% efficacy. 2)For the week ended Nov 7th Initial jobless claims fell to 709k from 757k and that was below the estimate of 731k. Continuing claims for the week ended Oct 31st continued to fall and this week to 6.79mm vs the estimate of 6.83mm and down from 7.22mm last week. Also positively, those filing for …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 11/13
Positives 1)October payrolls grew by 638k, above the forecast of 580k and the two prior months were revised up by a net 15k and this compares with 672k last month. The private sector saw a gain of 906k, well better than the estimate of 680k. The household survey saw a huge gain of 2.2mm and when combined with the labor force increase of 724k, the unemployment …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events:
Positives 1)Initial jobless claims fell to 751k from 787k and that was 20k below expectations. Continuing claims, delayed by a week, totaled 7.76mm, down from 8.37mm and about 20k less than expected. 2)The October Chicago manufacturing PMI was 61.1. That is better than the estimate of 58 but down slightly from the 62.4 seen in September. MNI said “Anecdotal …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 10/30
Positives 1)Existing home sales in September totaled 6.54mm, above the estimate of 6.3mm and up from 5.98mm in August. That is the most since May 2006 with a rise m/o/m in all 4 regions. With the decline in the number of homes for sale, months’ supply fell to just 2.7 from 3.0, the lowest in data going back to 1999. The median home price was up 14.8% to a new …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 10/23
Positives 1)Core retail sales in September rose 1.4% m/o/m, well better than the estimate of up .3% and only partially offset by a two tenths downward revision to August to -.3%. 2)Continuing claims, delayed by a week, fell 1.17mm to about 10mm with the hopes that many found jobs. Pandemic Unemployment Assistance also fell to 373k from 464k. 3)The Philly …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 10/16
As we await whether an airline bailout takes place and what comes of the Mnuchin/Pelosi back and forth, I can't stop staring at a 10 yr yield of just .65% and believing that even with all the Fed manipulation, it still is messaging a rather lackluster economic environment. That said, when looking at the last 3 months of the year, I think the tone of the vaccine news …
Positives 1)Non defense durable goods orders ex aircraft in August rose 1.8% m/o/m, above the estimate of 1% and July was revised up by 6 tenths to a 2.5% rise. There was a headline miss relative to expectations but due to volatile aircraft orders and we know full well the situation there. 2)New home sales in August totaled 1.011mm, 120k more than expected and …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 9/25
Firstly, price stability no longer meant stable prices and an increase of 2% per year became the new definition. Now in the US, average inflation targeting is the updated definition of price stability. In Europe, their definition of price stability was annual increases of "below, but close to 2%." Now there are rumblings within the ECB that they are smitten with the …
There was nothing new in the House Financial Services Committee's Q&A of Powell and Mnuchin. There was discussion on trying to help small and medium sized businesses but what was not asked of Powell and Mnuchin was what Fed policy was doing to the profitability of small and medium sized banks which in turn impacts small and medium sized businesses. The big banks …
[Read more...] about What about small and medium sized banks?/Some data
Positives 1)The preliminary September UoM consumer confidence index rose 4.8 pts m/o/m to 78.9 and that was above the estimate of 75. Both Current Conditions and Expectations were higher. One year inflation expectations moderated by 4 tenths to 2.7% but that is still above where it was in February at 2.4%. The internal components were mixed with employment …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.
