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Positives 1)I’m sympathetic to Powell’s belief that growth is moderating and he wants to take back that December hike. 2)Initial jobless claims totaled 209k, 12k less than expected vs 222k last week. However because of the 4th of July holiday we can throw out the number and wait until next week to average it out. 3)The MBA said mortgage applications to buy a …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 7/12

Positives 1)I wish Christine Lagarde the best of luck and hope she can be politically influential in stressing and encouraging governments to emphasize more fiscal policy and rely less on monetary policy. 2)Of the new Trump picks for the Fed and if appointed, Judy Shelton will be a breath of fresh air in introducing a new frame of monetary thought. Chris Waller …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 7/5

  Positives 1)Pending home sales in May, measuring contracts signed of existing homes, rose 1.1% m/o/m as expected. Sales in the Northeast rebounded by 3.5% after 3 straight months of declines. Sales also were up in the Midwest but flat down South and lower out West. 2)Refi’s still are responding the most to the drop in mortgage rates as they grew by …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 6/28

Positives 1) The Fed validated the pricing in the bond market that rate hikes are likely coming in response to mostly the manufacturing slowdown and weakness in overseas economies. They are trying to get ahead of any more pronounced slowdown and broader spillover to the services sector which has just begun. 2) Negotiations are back on with China and it’s been …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 6/21

Positives 1) The Administration pulled back from its everything tariff threat on Mexico. 2) Core retail sales in May beat the estimate by one tenth with a .5% m/o/m rise but it was actually better than that as April was revised up by 4 tenths. The y/o/y gain of 3.4% compares with the 5 yr average of 3.7% and helped by online retailing and sales at restaurants …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 6/14

Positives 1) The May ISM services PMI surprised to the upside, rising 1.4 pts to 56.9 from April. The estimate was a slight drop to 55.4 and the print is about spot on with the year to date average of 57. The components though were more mixed. Of the 18 industries surveyed, 16 saw growth vs 15 in April, 16 in March and 18 in February. Of those seeing an increase in …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 6/7

Positives 1) Initial jobless claims totaled 215k, about in line with the forecast of 214k and vs 212k last week (revised up by 1k). The 4 week average is now 217k vs 221k last week as a 230k print drops out. For perspective, the 217k average is about the same as the one year average of 218k. Continuing claims, delayed by a week, fell by 26k to just above the lowest …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 5/31

Positives 1) New home sales in April totaled 673k, about in line with the estimate of 675k and March was revised up by 31k to 723k. Smoothing out this volatile data point puts the 3 month average at 688k vs the 6 month average of 648k and the 12 month average of 628k. Months’ supply rose to 5.9 from 5.6 and the median home price jumped by 8.8% y/o/y but that was …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 5/24

Positives 1) Headline CPI for April rose .3% m/o/m while the core rate was higher by .1%, both were one tenth less than expected. The y/o/y core rate though due to rounding was up 2.1% as expected and up from 2% in March. The headline rate was higher by 2% y/o/y vs 1.9% last month. Services inflation of 2.8% ex energy offset the decline in core goods pricing, …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 5/10