Positives The Philly April manufacturing index rose slightly to 23.2 from 22.3 and that was 2.2 pts above the forecast. The internals though were much more mixed with new orders, backlogs and inventories down while the labor market components were up. Of note, Delivery Time rose to the highest level ever since this survey began in 1968 and this reflects a …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 4/20
Mark Carney seems intent on getting his picture on the wall of those central bankers that believe that Great Depression type monetary policy is prudent when we aren't anywhere near one. While the BoE is most likely raising rates this year and Carney said so himself yesterday, he also implied he's already getting cold feet about doing so in May which is when the market …
Initial jobless claims totaled 232k, about in line with the estimate of 230k and little changed with 233k last week. The 4 week average which smooths out the Easter holiday is 231k vs 230k in the week prior. Continuing claims, delayed by a week, fell 15k after rising by 60k last week. The bottom line is a ditto of the bottom line each and every week over the past …
[Read more...] about Claims/Philly mfr’g, inflation pressures grow
The commodity spike continues, especially in aluminum and nickel. Yesterday's close in the CRB index was up 1.8% to the highest since July 2015 which led to a near 4 yr high in inflation expectations in 10 yr TIPS (and inflation breakevens have risen globally). For those that drive, gasoline prices at the pump are up 14% y/o/y. For those that like chocolate (I'm a …
“Economic activity continued to expand at a modest to moderate pace across the 12 Federal Reserve Districts in March and early April.” “Outlooks remained positive, but contacts in various sectors including manufacturing, agriculture, and transportation expressed concern about the newly imposed and/or proposed tariffs.” “Consumer spending rose in most regions, …
The CRB commodity index has broken above 200 again, up more than 1% today and now sits at the highest level since October 2015. While oil is certainly a main contributor today, nickel is spiking by more than 10% on worries that a furtherance of Russian sanctions will hit Norilsk Nickel, the world’s 2nd biggest producer. Aluminum, after rallying by 22% over the past …
With the yield curve continuing to compress, the debate over what it means keeps on. To me, it is very simple the message being sent. We must understand that we no longer have economic cycles. We have credit cycles that ebb and flow with monetary policy. After all, when the Fed cuts rates to extremes its only function is to encourage the rest of us to borrow a lot …
The 2 yr note yield is now a stone’s throw from touching 2.40% as the new NY Fed President John Williams is speaking in Madrid. He forecasts a 3.5% unemployment rate next year and expects core PCE to touch 2% this year. He did repeat the need for “gradual” rate hikes to “reduce the risk that the economy could overheat.” Now of course anything and everything could …
Housing starts in March totaled 1.32mm annualized, above the estimate of 1.27mm and February was revised up by 60k. Looking under the hood and it was all the multi family side again that drove the upside. Multi family starts totaled 452k, up from 395k in February and that is the most since December 2016. Single family starts fell by 33k m/o/m to 867k, a 3 month low. …
Apparently taking advantage of the January jump in interest rates, foreign buying of US Treasuries picked up noticeably in February totaling $43.2b. That's the biggest one month of purchases since May 2017. About $10b of that was from hedge funds as they fall under the 'Cayman Islands' locale. The Chinese added to their inventory of notes and bonds, buying $15b worth …
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.
