Positives 1)New home sales in May jumped to 696k, about 100k more than anticipated and April was revised up by 38k to 629k. The mix really stood out as there were sharp drops in the Northeast and Midwest m/o/m offset by jumps in the South and out West. The number of homes for sale rose but not to the same extent as sales and months’ supply fell to 7.7 from …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 6/24
The final June UoM consumer confidence, on the heels of the record low print of 50.2 seen in the preliminary read in the beginning of the month, was 50.0. Both components were down m/o/m but from the initial report Current Conditions weakened further while the Expectations index was a bit higher. One year inflation expectations was 5.3%, unchanged from May, but off …
[Read more...] about Consumer confidence, inflation commentary/Home sales
There was a famous scene in Godfather 2 when Frank Pentangeli heads to Congress to give testimony as a witness against Michael Corleone. Frank was an old associate of Michael's father Vito in the olive oil business, among other things, and was ready to spill the beans on Michael as head of one of the biggest crime families. But, at the committee hearing, after seeing …
I mentioned the Treasury rally that we see but I just wanted to highlight the change in the fed funds futures market. For perspective, in last week’s dot projections from the Fed, the median 2022 fed funds rate was 3.4% by yr end. It’s 3.8% by yr end 2023. The fed funds futures market today says the Fed will stop at 3.4% in early 2023 and then end next year closer to …
US Treasuries are extending their rally after the fall in the US PMI June figure. At 51.2, it is down from 53.6 and the lowest since January. Manufacturing saw the biggest decline, falling to 52.4 from 57. Services moderated to 51.6 from 53.4 last month. With services, “Weaker growth in business activity was driven by a solid fall in new orders. Client demand …
Initial jobless claims totaled 229k, 3k more than expected and last week was revised up by 2k to 231k. This brings the 4 week average to 224k from 219k as a 211k print drops out. Continuing claims rose by 5k to 1.315mm, slightly off the lowest level in more than 50 yrs. Bottom line, the pace of firing’s still remains very low but the trajectory has certainly …
[Read more...] about Jobless Claims/Tech vs the Airline Industry
While prices are still high and pain still felt, we are seeing a pullback in ag prices to the relief of all not in the ag business. Soybeans are down 2% today and by 4.7% this week to about where it was the week BEFORE the Russian invasion at $16.22 a bushel. Wheat is down 7% this week and back under $10 a bushel, though still up 20% in the Friday before the invasion. …
[Read more...] about Some relief on food prices?/Yields/KB/PMI’s
This morning's market action has recession worries written all over it. Bonds are rallying, stocks are lower, crude oil and copper are trading down and the dollar is rallying again. Everyone on the sellside is throwing out their recession odds with many not really going out on a limb by saying 50/50. While nothing is 100%, I'll guess the odds are 99%. We saw a 1.5% …
If there ever was a great advertisement for nuclear power, which is dependable, stable, and clean base load power, it was the front page of the Weekend Financial Times titled "Germany to restart old coal plants after Russia cuts back gas supplies." This is the same Germany that decided foolishly years ago to shut down all their nuclear plants after the Fukushima …
[Read more...] about The case for nuclear/’Guessing’ not ‘guiding’
Positives 1)The Fed, BoE, SNB, and central banks in Brazil and Taiwan all raise interest rates in an attempt to not just cool inflation but to regain their credibility (Brazil at least has one with their aggressive response to inflation). The ECB temporarily calms down the yield widening between German, France and the others. This as they are still doing QE for a …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 6/17
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor. Each day The Boock Report provides summaries and commentary on the macro data and news that matter, with analysis of what it all means and how it fits together.
