Positives 1)Initial jobless claims totaled 293k, below the estimate of 320k and down from 329k last week and finally a print with a 2 handle for the 1st time since pre Covid. The 4 week average fell to 334k from 345k. Also positive, continuing claims dropped by 134k w/o/w to 2.59mm and well below the estimate of 2.67mm and the lowest since pre Covid. They have …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events 10/15
I mentioned the other day to key your eye on the US inflation breakevens. Today the 5 yr is up 4.5 bps to 2.76%, matching the highest level since 2006. The easy trade for TIPS is over but if you think, as I do, that inflation will average more than 2.76% in the coming 5 yrs, the short term maturities are still a buy. The 10 yr breakeven is up 3.5 bps today to 2.57%, …
Core retail sales in September rose .7% m/o/m, 3 tenths more than expected and August was revised up by one tenth to a rise of 2.1%. Keep in mind that these are NOMINAL numbers and thus include the higher prices that we are all paying for just about everything. After a combined decline of about 14% in the prior four months because of not enough cars as we know, …
[Read more...] about Retail sales all about inflation/NY mfr’g/Import prices
The need to pay higher wages to find, retain and/or satiate one's workforce to prevent strikes (see Deere, Kellogg's), continues to show up in the data. We saw last Friday the BLS tell us that average hourly earnings rose at an annualized rate of 6% over the 6 months thru September. Yesterday the Atlanta Fed released its September wage figures and they are jumping. …
Headline PPI rose .5% m/o/m in September after a .7% increase in August. That was one tenth below the estimate. Taking out food and energy saw a .2% m/o/m gain which was 3 tenths less than forecasted and follows a .6% rise last month. Versus last year, price gains are robust with a headline gain of 8.6% and core increase of 6.8%. Over the past 6 months, core PPI is …
Running US ports 24 hrs/7 days a week is all well and good and hopefully will free up some ships but either the containers sit on the ships or they sit on the ground at the ports if there aren't enough trucking capacity/truck drivers to drive the goods off from there to sorting facilities or warehouses or hand them off to trains. Nothing works smoothly unless …
[Read more...] about Still need more trucks/CRB raw industrials at record high/Other
Headline CPI in September rose .4% m/o/m, one tenth more than expected while the core rate was higher by .2% as expected. Versus last year, the headline gain is now 5.4% and the core is up by 4%. Food prices rose .9% m/o/m and 4.6% y/o/y. Energy was higher by 1.3% m/o/m and 25% y/o/y. Gasoline prices by the way according to AAA is up another 3% month to …
[Read more...] about If you ex out most everything, inflation is low
"Transitory is a dirty word" said Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic yesterday in a virtual speech, meaning he's going to stop using the word to describe the current situation. Refreshing to hear from a central banker right now, especially since the belief has been wrong over the past year plus (we heard 'base effects' a lot from them too). Of course, most …
After a soft 3 yr auction earlier today, the 10 yr note auction was much better. The yield of 1.584% was just below the when issued pricing of 1.59%. The bid to cover of 2.58 was above the 12 month average of 2.45. And, direct and indirect bidders took 89% of the auction vs the 12 month average of 80%. Bottom line, a 4 month high in the 10 yr yield brought out the …
[Read more...] about Solid 10 yr auction/NY Fed inflation expectations
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.
