Positives 1)Headline CPI was flat m/o/m in July and up by .3% m/o/m at the core level, both 2 tenths below expectations. For perspective, the comparisons were 1.3% and .7% in June. Versus last year, the headline gain was up 8.5% vs 9.1% in June and by 5.9% at the core, unchanged with June. Driven by a 7.7% drop in gasoline prices, energy fell by 4.6% m/o/m, though …
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Up against a tough comparison in June of up 1.1%, July headline PPI fell by .5% instead of rising by .2% as expected. The core rate was higher by .2%, half the estimate. The y/o/y gains are still very robust but less so. The headline increase was 9.8% vs 11.3% last month. The core rate was up by 7.6% vs 8.2% in June. The 9% m/o/m drop in energy after a similar gain …
I'm traveling today and tomorrow to the middle of nowhere and will have very sketchy wifi. I'll do what I can with writing. Going thru some earnings calls over the past few days, I was focused on the consumer and the bifurcation we're now seeing. With respect to Disney, a stock we own, I wanted to hear what they had to say about the parks business for coming …
The benchmark 10 yr Treasury note auction was pretty good. The yield of 2.755% was just below the when issued of 2.76%. The bid to cover of 2.53 was just above the one yr average of 2.49. Also, direct and indirect bidders took down 90% of the auction, the 3rd most going back at least 20 years. With the CPI print out of the way, it likely helped bring out some …
Headline CPI was flat m/o/m in July and up by .3% m/o/m at the core level, both 2 tenths below expectations. For perspective, the comparisons were 1.3% and .7% in June. Versus last year, the headline gain was up 8.5% vs 9.1% in June and by 5.9% at the core, unchanged with June. Driven by a 7.7% drop in gasoline prices, energy fell by 4.6% m/o/m, though still up 33% …
Outside of the swing factor on the headline from food and energy, today's CPI will come down to how much services inflation offsets another expected slowing rate of change in core goods prices. For the week ended July 29th, the average 30 yr mortgage rate fell by a sharp 31 bps to 5.43% and for the week ended August 5th ticked up to 5.47%. In response, purchases …
While old news but with Q3 shaping up to be no better, productivity in Q2 fell 4.6% q/o/q annualized after a 7.4% drop in Q1. As I like to look at this figure y/o/y, it was down 2.5% after a .6% drop in Q1 and that is the worst quarterly y/o/y figure since I have data going back to 1948. Coincident with this was the 9.5% y/o/y rise in unit labor costs after an 8.2% …
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Thanks to a sharp drop in gasoline prices, a fall in food prices, price cuts on a variety of goods like apparel, and the implicit belief that aggressive rate hikes are going to further hurt demand and thus prices, the NY Fed yesterday said one yr inflation expectations fell to 6.2% from 6.8%. The 3 yr outlook fell to 3.2% from 3.6%. They said "Both decreases were …
Maybe this partly helps to explain the upside surprise in Friday's jobs number and the negative read it means for productivity. Today the CEO of JetBlue Robin Hayes told BBC that "I now need to over-hire just to keep the number I need. With Covid, we lost a lot of experienced people...and your attrition is much higher - you're hiring people but then they're leaving …
Positives 1)The headline gain in payrolls for July far exceeded expectations with a 528k gain, more than double the estimate of 250k and the two prior months were revised up by a combined 28k. The household survey said 179k jobs were added after losing 315k in June. Combine that with the drop of 63k in the labor force and the unemployment rate fell one tenth to …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 8/5
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor. Each day The Boock Report provides summaries and commentary on the macro data and news that matter, with analysis of what it all means and how it fits together.
