The NAHB February home builder sentiment index fell 1 pt m/o/m to a still very high 74. The estimate was for no change. Both the Present Situation and Expectations components fell 1 pt. The Prospective Buyers Traffic also fell 1 pt to 57, thus remaining well above 50. The positives and challenges remain the same for housing. Lower mortgage rates have certainly …
NY Manufacturing index
The February NY manufacturing index, the first February industrial figure to be reported, rose to 12.9 from 4.8 and that was better than the estimate of 5.0. It is also the best since May. Much of the improvement was due to a sharp increase in inventories and new orders. Inventories jumped to 12.9 from -.7 and new orders rose to 22.1 from 6.6. Backlogs also went …
With huge exposure to China, why surprised by Apple news?
I want to ask something somewhat rhetorically here. What is more surprising, that Apple with its huge customer base in China and broad procurement needs also in China announces that its business is being negatively impacted by 2/3 of the Chinese economy almost shut down or that the stock in the face of these obvious facts hit a record high last week? Was last week's …
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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 2/14
Positives 1)The preliminary February UoM consumer confidence index ticked up by 1.1 m/o/m to 100.9, just shy of the highest in this cycle. The estimate was 99.5. The components were mixed as Current Conditions fell by .6 pts m/o/m but was offsets by a 2.1 pt rise in Expectations. One year inflation expectations held at 2.5%. The Net Income component jumped 10 …
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IP/Consumer confidence
Industrial production in January fell .3% m/o/m, one tenth more than expected and December was revised down by one tenth. The manufacturing component was as expected, falling one tenth but December was also revised lower by one tenth. For perspective, the manufacturing index closed 2019 at 104.9. It began the year at 106.4. Blame it on tariffs mostly. Utility output …
Retail sales
January core retail sales taking out auto’s, gasoline and building materials was soft, seeing no change from December vs the estimate of up .3% and December was revised down by 3 tenths and November was revised lower by one tenth. So for all the talk about a solid consumer, core retail sales since August, thus 5 months since, is down a total of .3%. January core sales …
Trade with China/Fed’s balance sheet
While it's clear that markets could care less about the economic impact of the virus on the assumption that it goes away soon and we'll be back to where we were, I just wanted to put some numbers behind the influence of China on the rest of us in terms of trade. These numbers are as of 2017 that I have full data on so it is a bit stale but you get the point of the …
Atlanta Fed’s sticky core CPI at near 12 yr high
As the Fed worries about inflation that is too low, the Atlanta Fed’s January sticky core CPI just reported reached 2.8% y/o/y, the highest since November 2008. ATLANTA STICKY CORE CPI …
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Core CPI at 2%+ for 23 straight months
The January CPI rose .1% headline and .2% core, with the former one tenth less than expected and the core as forecasted. Versus last year, headline CPI is up 2.5% y/o/y and 2.3% y/o/y at the core level. Due to rounding, both are above estimates and that core print above 2% is the 23rd month in a row (high 5 Rick Santelli). Again leading the way was the .3% m/o/m …
Repeat after me, “I don’t know”
With the upward revision to the number of those afflicted, the answer we should all give when asked about the full impact of this virus and when it goes away is "I don't know." Context for this morning's pullback in the futures: yesterday the NDX closed 19% above its 200 day moving average. On January 26th, 2018, a time when some metrics in the markets never had us …
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.