New home sales in August totaled 1.011mm, 120k more than expected and up from 965k in July which was revised up by 64k. The increase to the highest level since 2006 was solely led by the South region as sales were little changed in the Northeast m/o/m and were down in the Midwest and WEST (although remain elevated). Inventory remains lean as months’ supply fell to …
Home sales above 1mm again
New home sales in August totaled 1.011mm, 120k more than expected and up from 965k in July which was revised up by 64k. The increase to the highest level since 2006 was solely led by the South region as sales were little changed in the Northeast m/o/m and were down in the Midwest and South (although remain elevated). Inventory remains lean as months’ supply fell …
Claims data
Initial jobless claims were little changed w/o/w at 870k vs 866k last week but that was 30k more than expected. The 4 week average moderated to 878k from 914k as a print of 1.01mm fell out. Continuing claims, delayed by a week, fell to 12.58mm from 12.75mm but that was more than the forecast of 12.28mm. Those receiving PUA, not seasonally adjusted, fell to 630k from …
A new investing world/Sentiment/Other
To highlight again the new world we're in, and I'm talking solely here about the relationship between stocks and bonds, on September 2nd, the day before the stock market correction began, the 10 yr yield was .65%. Yesterday with the S&P 500 down 10% from its peak it closed at .67%. The Treasury market remains a port in the storm but only from a capital …
US business activity in Sept/Market sentiment
The preliminary September Markit manufacturing and services composite index for the US fell slightly m/o/m to 54.4 from 54.6. Manufacturing improved to 53.5 from 53.1 but was offset by a .4 pt drop in services to 54.6. With respect to services Markit said “Firms noted that increased business activity stemmed from the resumption of client operations following …
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What about small and medium sized banks?/Some data
There was nothing new in the House Financial Services Committee's Q&A of Powell and Mnuchin. There was discussion on trying to help small and medium sized businesses but what was not asked of Powell and Mnuchin was what Fed policy was doing to the profitability of small and medium sized banks which in turn impacts small and medium sized businesses. The big banks …
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Housing/Mfr’g
Existing home sales in August totaled 6mm at an annualized rate and that was spot on with the estimate and up from 5.86mm in July. Figure many of these closings reflect contract signings AFTER people came out of lockdown in May, June and July. Home inventories remained lean and reflected in months’ supply at just 3.0, matching the lowest since at least 1999 that I …
Hand and Glove/No NIRP?/Some data
Today at 10:30am there is a hearing before the House Financial Services Committee titled "Oversight of the Treasury Department's and Federal Reserve's Pandemic Response." If there was any doubt, these two agencies are now hand and glove with the latter financing the profligacy of the former. I believe the key factor in the US dollar weakness this year and the lack of …
Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events
Positives 1)The preliminary September UoM consumer confidence index rose 4.8 pts m/o/m to 78.9 and that was above the estimate of 75. Both Current Conditions and Expectations were higher. One year inflation expectations moderated by 4 tenths to 2.7% but that is still above where it was in February at 2.4%. The internal components were mixed with employment …
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Sentiment/South Korea/China
Last Monday I said the better way to get a good tradable bottom was to wring out a lot of the uber bullishness that we've seen in some of the sentiment numbers. We're getting there but we're not there yet as seen by last week's II data where Bulls are still above 50, Bears below 20 and with the weekend's Citi Panic/Euphoria index which is cooling but is still more …
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.