The September Conference Board Consumer Confidence index was much better than expected, rising to 101.8 from 86.3 and 11.8 pts above the estimate. The Expectations component led the way with a 17.4 m/o/m increase but the Current Situation was higher as well by 12.7 pts. One year inflation expectations remained elevated at 5.7% but that is down one tenth from …
[Read more...] about Consumer confidence/Home prices/NIRP, ZIRP, QE
As we await whether an airline bailout takes place and what comes of the Mnuchin/Pelosi back and forth, I can't stop staring at a 10 yr yield of just .65% and believing that even with all the Fed manipulation, it still is messaging a rather lackluster economic environment. That said, when looking at the last 3 months of the year, I think the tone of the vaccine news …
Positives 1)Non defense durable goods orders ex aircraft in August rose 1.8% m/o/m, above the estimate of 1% and July was revised up by 6 tenths to a 2.5% rise. There was a headline miss relative to expectations but due to volatile aircraft orders and we know full well the situation there. 2)New home sales in August totaled 1.011mm, 120k more than expected and …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 9/25
Versus last year, computers/electronics led the way with a 6.1% gain but there were declines elsewhere. Auto/parts orders fell 2% y/o/y, machinery by 3.1%, electrical equipment by 4.9% and metals, both primary and fabricated, by about 7%. Core shipments, plugged into GDP, rose 1.5% m/o/m, about twice the estimate of up .8% and July was revised up by 4 tenths. …
Firstly, price stability no longer meant stable prices and an increase of 2% per year became the new definition. Now in the US, average inflation targeting is the updated definition of price stability. In Europe, their definition of price stability was annual increases of "below, but close to 2%." Now there are rumblings within the ECB that they are smitten with the …
New home sales in August totaled 1.011mm, 120k more than expected and up from 965k in July which was revised up by 64k. The increase to the highest level since 2006 was solely led by the South region as sales were little changed in the Northeast m/o/m and were down in the Midwest and WEST (although remain elevated). Inventory remains lean as months’ supply fell to …
New home sales in August totaled 1.011mm, 120k more than expected and up from 965k in July which was revised up by 64k. The increase to the highest level since 2006 was solely led by the South region as sales were little changed in the Northeast m/o/m and were down in the Midwest and South (although remain elevated). Inventory remains lean as months’ supply fell …
Initial jobless claims were little changed w/o/w at 870k vs 866k last week but that was 30k more than expected. The 4 week average moderated to 878k from 914k as a print of 1.01mm fell out. Continuing claims, delayed by a week, fell to 12.58mm from 12.75mm but that was more than the forecast of 12.28mm. Those receiving PUA, not seasonally adjusted, fell to 630k from …
To highlight again the new world we're in, and I'm talking solely here about the relationship between stocks and bonds, on September 2nd, the day before the stock market correction began, the 10 yr yield was .65%. Yesterday with the S&P 500 down 10% from its peak it closed at .67%. The Treasury market remains a port in the storm but only from a capital …
The preliminary September Markit manufacturing and services composite index for the US fell slightly m/o/m to 54.4 from 54.6. Manufacturing improved to 53.5 from 53.1 but was offset by a .4 pt drop in services to 54.6. With respect to services Markit said “Firms noted that increased business activity stemmed from the resumption of client operations following …
[Read more...] about US business activity in Sept/Market sentiment
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.
