After a few weeks of higher than expected initial claims prints, this week saw 210k, down from 218k last week and vs the forecast of 215k. That though is the 3rd week in the past 4 with a 2 handle and the 4 week average is now 207k vs 200k last week and vs 191k in the week prior. That’s the highest since mid February. Continuing claims rose 31k to 1.346mm off the 50+ …
Auto’s, retail/BoK/Nat Gas/Sentiment
Just as we're seeing the slowdown in the housing market with regards to the rate of transactions because combining the high cost of the 'product' with a rising cost of funding it makes it much less affordable, the same thing is now seeping into the car market. That car market that also has high prices and is very interest rate sensitive. TrueCar yesterday came out …
Quick color on the minutes
There was nothing really new in the FOMC minutes from the meeting 3 weeks ago. I’ll just comment on three things. 1)The Fed is highlighting the inner workings of the Treasury market saying, “Several participants who commented on issues related to financial stability noted that the tightening of monetary policy could interact with vulnerabilities related to the …
Capital spending
Non defense capital goods orders ex aircraft rose .3% m/o/m in April, two tenths less than expected and March was revised down by two tenths to a gain of 1.1%. Core shipments, plugged into GDP, was about as expected when combined with the downward revision to the prior month. Orders for vehicles/parts fell .2% m/o/m but off a robust 4.8% increase in March and it is …
A few things of note
When I woke up and checked the S&P futures I thought they were broken because I can't remember the last time they were little changed but they now seem to be working again. We know we've heard about the mix shift in products being sold by Walmart and Target with more needs than wants being the consumer focus. Nordstrom, with obviously a higher end customer, …
US Mfr’g & Services/New Home Sales/Record prices paid
Markit’s (now S&P Global) May manufacturing and services PMI fell to 53.8 from 56 with both components weaker m/o/m. Manufacturing fell to 57.5 from 59.2 while services was at 53.5 from 55.6. With respect to services, the index is at a 4 month low and “the pace of expansion was reportedly weighed down by hikes in selling prices and concerns with higher interest …
[Read more...] about US Mfr’g & Services/New Home Sales/Record prices paid
A bunch of macro anecdotes
Just in case you didn't see the exact wording from Snap's 8K yesterday, they said this: "Since we issued guidance on April 21, 2022, the macroeconomic environment has deteriorated further and faster than anticipated. As a result, we believe it is likely that we will report revenue and adjusted EBITDA below the low end of our Q2 2022 guidance range." Because of how …
Lagarde, FX/CRE/Wealth effect/Freight rates/Other
At around 4:15am est, ECB president Christine Lagarde echoed what her colleagues have been saying for weeks now. Reiterating that QE will end right after Q2 and rates would go up in July with a possible zero deposit rate by "the end of the third quarter" she said. She however does not want to hike in 50 bps increments right now, "This means that it is sensible to move …
[Read more...] about Lagarde, FX/CRE/Wealth effect/Freight rates/Other
Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 5/20
Positives 1)Core retail sales in April rose 1% m/o/m in nominal terms, 3 tenths more than expected. There was also the annual revision changes for the prior year plus that influenced the comparisons. Unfortunately inflation is eating much into this in real terms. 2)In the first full month covering the Russian invasion, foreigners bought a net $48.8b of US notes …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 5/20
A big congrats to Haruhiko Kuroda
A big congrats goes out to Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda who finally got the 2% inflation rate he's been trying so hard for. Japan's April CPI ex food rose 2.1% y/o/y from .8% in March and outside of the consumption tax boost in 2014-2015 that lifted inflation above 2%, this is the first time since September 2008 that we've seen a 2 handle. He must be very …
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor. Each day The Boock Report provides summaries and commentary on the macro data and news that matter, with analysis of what it all means and how it fits together.