Positives 1)Initial jobless claims totaled 963k, 137k less than expected and down from 1.19mm (revised up by 5k) last week. Also positively, continuing claims, delayed by a week, continued to trend lower to 15.49mm vs 16.09mm in the week prior. The estimate was 15.8mm. Those collecting Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (non seasonally adjusted) fell to 489k from …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 8/14
Industrial production in July was as expected, rising by 3% m/o/m with a modest 3 tenths upward revision to June to a 5.7% increase. All related to the reopenings and increased economic activity as the byproduct of that. The manufacturing component in particular was up by 3.4% m/o/m vs the estimate of 3% and June was revised up by two tenths to a gain of 7.4%. The …
July core retail sales rose 1.4% m/o/m, above the estimate of up .8% and June was revised up by 4 tenths to a gain of 6%. This follows a 10.4% increase in May after the 12.4% drop in April as things were about fully shut. As things continued to reopen and consumers headed outside again, most categories saw m/o/m gains except building materials, autos/parts and …
[Read more...] about Retail sale in July, but what happens now?
Back in the time when Alan Greenspan was the Fed Chair one of the things he said is when he'd wake up in the morning the first market check he did was the 10 yr yield. I'll argue that now is the time to wake up and see where the 30 yr yield is trading at in gauging the markets opinion of growth and inflation because the Fed has polluted the market messaging of the 10 …
[Read more...] about Let’s reappoint the 30 yr bond as the go to
Longer term interest rates are moving to the high of the day after a poor 30 yr bond auction. The yield of 1.406% was a full 2 bps above the when issued. The bid to cover of 2.14 was the lowest since July 2019 and well below the one year average of 2.35. Dealers got stuck with 28% of the supply, the most since July 2019. In response, the 10 yr yield is now just …
[Read more...] about Poor 30 yr auction, longer term yields at high of day
Initial jobless claims totaled 963k, 137k less than expected and down from 1.19mm (revised up by 5k) last week. Also positively, continuing claims, delayed by a week, continued to trend lower to 15.49mm vs 16.09mm in the week prior. The estimate was 15.8mm. Those collecting Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (non seasonally adjusted) fell to 489k from 656k last week and …
Well, it took an all time high in the stock market for the individual investor to finally get more interested but they are still more bearish than bullish. AAII said Bulls jumped 6.8 pts to 30, just below the highest since mid June. Bears fell 5.5 pts to 42.1, the lease since mid June. You can be sure that the higher the market goes, the more bullish these people will …
With the 10 yr note yield microscopic but at the highest level in 5 weeks, the 10 yr auction was pretty good. Positively, the yield of .677% was a hair under the when issued and direct and indirect bidders took about 80% of the auction, matching the most since April 2019. The fly though was the bid to cover of 2.41 which was slightly below the one year average …
In response to the hotter than expected CPI print, the 10 yr inflation breakeven is up another 4 bps today to 1.67%. It was 1.40% one month ago. According to Investors Intelligence, the Bull/Bear spread is back above 40 which is considered extreme. Bulls rose to 58.1 from 56.7 while Bears are down to just 16.2 from 17.3. Always be aware of one’s investing …
The July consumer price index rose by .6% m/o/m both headline and core, well more than the estimate of up .3% and .2% respectively. Versus last year, headline CPI is up by 1% and the core rate is higher by 1.6% vs the forecast of up .7% and 1.1%. Services inflation ex energy jumped by .6% too after a .3% rise in June. This is up 2.3% y/o/y and continue to blame …
[Read more...] about Is the inflation I’ve expected to come already here?
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.
