Amazingly, initial jobless fell again to 193k which was 22k less than expected and down from 209k last week (revised from 213k). This brings the 4 week average to 207k from 216k and vs 223k in the week before. Also of note, continuing claims fell to 1.347mm, about 40k less than expected and down from 1.376mm in the week prior. In the face of a growing number of …
You can’t half ass it or else it won’t work
A big problem with intervention, whether in FX or in the bond market, is you can't half ass it or the markets will fight right back. While many want to blame the Truss UK budget for the craziness in the UK bond market, the Bank of England is very much to blame too. Both because of their modest interest rate hikes to date in the face of raging inflation at the same …
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Hotel California, coming to a theater near you?
We're witnessing the further unraveling of the grand experiment of central banks over the past 15 years, originally championed and led by Ben Bernanke. The accidents continue to pile up in its reversal and in response, they can never really leave. In the BoE press release today, "In line with its financial stability objective, the Bank of England stands ready to …
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Not good
After yesterday’s weak 2 yr auction, today’s 5 yr was poor. The yield of 4.228% was almost 3 bps above the when issued pricing. The bid to cover of 2.27 was well below the one yr average of 2.42. Also, dealers got stuck with the 2nd highest percentage of a 5 yr auction this year. Bottom line, what’s amazing and concerning at the same time is that 5 yr yield at the …
Consumer confidence/Home sales/Mfr’g
The September Conference Board’s index on consumer confidence rose to 108 from 103.6 in August and that was above the estimate of 104.6. Thanks mostly to lower gasoline prices and a still good labor market, this figure is at the best since April. Both the Present Situation and Expectations rose m/o/m. One yr inflation expectations fell to 6.8% from 7%. Those that …
Home prices moderate again/Durable goods
Home prices in July according to S&P CoreLogic moderated to a 15.8% y/o/y pace in July from 18.1% in June. That is the slowest rate of gain since April 2021 and assume this slowdown will only continue. The gains were still led by the sunbelt cities, Tampa, Miami, Dallas, Charlotte and Atlanta. Phoenix home prices slowed to a 22.4% y/o/y pace from over 30% just a …
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Short term extremes/Other
At least from a very short term perspective, the Daily Sentiment Index data has reached big extremes. The DSI for the SPX and Nasdaq is down to just 5 (0-100 range). The Dollar index is up to 97 bullish and at 7 for bonds. In other words, the rubberband has been stretched pretty tight so that is the set up for today's bounce in stocks and bonds around the world and …
‘It’s just another manic Monday’
The dramatic plunge in the pound and Gilts is unbelievable and to the point where at least the pound is likely a buy. The 14 day RSI is down to just 15 and the 7 day is at just 8. The 14 day is matching the lowest since March 2020 and January 2016 before that which was a few months before the Brexit vote. The 2 yr Gilt yield is spiking by 58 bps and is now up 100 bps …
Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 9/23
Positives 1)The Fed continues on with its commitment to lower inflation. 2)We also saw hikes this week from the BoE (50 bps as expected), the SNB (75 bps as expected), the Riksbank (100 bps, 75 bps expected), the Norges Bank (50 bps as expected), the Bank of Indonesia (50 bps vs 25 bps that was expected), the central bank in Taiwan (12.5 bps as expected), the …
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US PMI
The US composite September PMI bounced to 49.3 from 44.6 with manufacturing up by .3 pts m/o/m to 51.8 and services rebounding back to near 50 at 49.2 from 44.6 last month. With services, new orders rose from August but “The upturn was only slight overall, as reports of strong inflation and interest rates hampering sales persisted. In contrast to a rise in total …
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor. Each day The Boock Report provides summaries and commentary on the macro data and news that matter, with analysis of what it all means and how it fits together.