Positives 1)The March ISM services index rose to 63.7 from 55.3 and that was well above the estimate of 59. This is the highest on record dating back to 1997. All 18 industries surveyed saw growth vs 17 in February and 14 in January. The ISM summed up the release by saying “Respondents’ comments indicate that the lifting of covid related restrictions has …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 4/9
The March PPI rose 1% m/o/m, double the estimate and the core rate jumped by .7%, more than triple the forecast. Versus last year, producer prices rose 4.2% and by 3.1% ex food and energy. Easy comps for sure but considering the extent of the beat, it is more than just that. Energy prices were up by 5.9% m/o/m after a 6% rise in February. Food prices grew by .5% …
Ahead of the US PPI figure today, China said its PPI calculation rose 4.4% y/o/y in March, up from 1.7% in February and above the estimate of 3.6%. Supply constraints, higher commodity prices and transportation costs were the main reasons as it is everywhere. What it also means is that China is going to start exporting higher prices to the rest of us if this persists. …
Initial jobless claims totaled 744k, 64k more than expected and up from 719k last week. The 4 week average is now 724k from 721k last week. Positively, those receiving pandemic unemployment assistance (PUA) did fall to 152k from 237k but those continuing to get it remains high. Delayed by a week, continuing claims fell by 60k w/o/w to 3.73mm but that was almost 100k …
Yesterday we saw the bull sentiment get extreme in the 'professional' community as measured by Investors Intelligence. Today we see the individual investor sentiment has gotten extreme too. Bulls jumped 11.1 pts w/o/w to 56.9. The is the highest since the 1st week of 2018. Bears fell to the lowest since April 2019 at 20.4, down 2.8 pts w/o/w. The spread between the …
[Read more...] about Bull boat full again/Supply crunches/Some data
The FOMC minutes from the meeting three weeks ago was uneventful in terms of delivering new news, especially after hearing from a slew of members over this time frame, including today. We know that even though the economy will ‘normalize’ with the continued increase in inoculation, the Fed will not be normalizing policy anytime soon. The policy of lower for …
[Read more...] about The Fed minutes and the bifurcation between big and small
Investors Intelligence said today that its survey of ‘professional’ investors saw Bulls recapture the 60 level again at 60.8 up from 54.4 last week. Bears fell further, now at 16.7 from 17.5. As I’ve said many times before, a read above 60 is considered extreme as is a spread greater than 40 vs the bears. This is not a market call as bulls can stay above 60 for weeks …
After hearing from Fed President Mester Monday and Kaplan today with Evans and Barkin also speaking today, there is still no direct commentary from them on the red hot US housing market. In fact, what we've heard so far is that the economy still needs the same level of policy accommodation which implies that Mester and Kaplan wants to continue to throw gasoline on the …
Yes, we are still 8.5mm people below the number of employed workers in February 2020 but as of February 2021 there are 7.4mm job openings up from 7.1mm in January and 6.75mm in December and now above the 7mm in February 2020 and 7.15mm in January 2020. In fact, this is the most amount of job openings since January 2019. Relative to January, more jobs are needed …
As measured by Caixin, China's private sector service sector index for March gained 2.8 pts m/o/m to 54.3. That was better than the estimate of 52.1. Caixin said "The Covid flare ups that occurred in the fall and the winter have basically died down, and the services sector has quickly recovered with supply and demand expanding. Compared with strong domestic demand, …
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.
