Fear and Greed A day before we see the weekly II data, the CNN Fear/Greed index closed at just 15 yesterday (Extreme Fear according to CNN) vs 17 on Friday, 36 one week ago and vs 73 one month ago. With II, twice this year when Bulls reached 60 the market cooled off and the same thing has certainly happened again. Thus, from strictly a sentiment standpoint, we might …
[Read more...] about Sentiment / Copper again / Data / Kuroda going to JH
I've updated my investment ideas page. (members click here). As always, this week's write-up includes specific equity, ETN, and ETF analysis. Updates of note this week include thoughts on some of the drawdown we saw in equities last week. Here's a sample from this week's update: I think the tip off to the recent market pullback really began early on in this past …
Inflation There’s nothing going on so I’ll just opine on inflation and give perspective ahead of Friday’s Jackson Hole appearances by Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi. Central bankers focus solely on rate of change in gauging the pace of inflation and mostly of course with consumer price inflation. And within CPI, it doesn’t really capture a cumulative rise in prices. …
Positives Initial jobless claims totaled 232k, 8k less than expected and down from 244k. This drops the 4 week average a hair to 240,500 from 241,000 as a similar 234k print drops out. Continuing claims, delayed by a week, fell by 3k. The NY manufacturing August index saw a large rebound to 25.2 from 9.8, was well above the forecast of 10 and is at the best …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 8/18
Confidence Consumer confidence in August, according to the UoM, jumped 4.2 pts to 97.6 and that was well above the estimate of 94. It is at the best level since January but the components were mixed. Current conditions fell 2.4 pts to 111 which is the lowest level since November but was more than offset by the 8.5 pt jump in the Expectations component. …
United States ‘Yet’ happened rather quickly. The title of my note yesterday was “Markets don’t give a damn, yet” defining where the line was when it would care. Picking fights and getting criticized by members of one’s own party don’t help in pursuing one’s agenda. I’ll take two quotes from today’s WSJ article titled “Donald Trump’s Jabs at Lawmakers Fire Up GOP …
[Read more...] about ‘Yet’ happened rather quickly / One Belt, One Road
United States Initial jobless claims totaled 232k, 8k less than expected and down from 244k. This drops the 4 week average a hair to 240,500 from 241,000 as a similar 234k print drops out. Continuing claims, delayed by a week, fell by 3k. Bottom line, the bottom line remains the same with the modest pace of firing’s in light of the shrinking pool of available …
[Read more...] about Claims / Philly mfr’g / IP / Autos in recession
The Market As I’m sure all of you have been discussing, I’ve been as well over the past few days on why the market doesn’t care about all the drama from the Administration. I respond and just say here simply, the markets and our $18T economy don’t give a damn about Trump’s personality, the things he says and his tweets. It will only care if it starts to impact that …
[Read more...] about Markets don’t give a damn… yet / Some data / Commodities
FOMC Minutes Bottom line with the just released FOMC minutes is this, the only thing the Fed seems comfortable committing to right now is QT in September “absent significant adverse developments in the economy or in financial markets.” As for when the fed funds rate might go up again, everyone had their own opinion that spanned the spectrum of thought, all with …
July housing starts totaled 1.155mm, 65k less than expected and down from 1.213mm in June. Most of the reason for the m/o/m drop was a 54k unit fall in multi family as single family starts were down just 4k m/o/m. As for permits, single family was unchanged m/o/m at 811k while multi family permits fell by 52k after jumping by 75k in June. I’ll use pictures to …
Peter is the Chief Market Analyst with The Lindsey Group. He is Co-CIO at Bookmark Advisors, a member of the Advisory Services Network and a regular CNBC Contributor.
