Positives 1)Payrolls in November expanded by 263k, 63k more than anticipated, partly offset by a downward revision to the two prior months of 23k. Most of the beat was in the government sector as private payrolls rose by 221k, 36k above the estimate. Smoothing out the monthly noise puts the 3 month job hiring average at 272k vs the 6 month average of 323k, the 12 …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 12/2
Payrolls in November expanded by 263k, 63k more than anticipated, partly offset by a downward revision to the two prior months of 23k. Most of the beat was in the government sector as private payrolls rose by 221k, 36k above the estimate. The negative for a 2nd straight month was the drop of 138k in the household survey after a 328k job loss in October. The reason …
[Read more...] about Powell talked about wages, market ignored but are listening today
Ahead of the jobs report, this was an upsetting story I read yesterday from Marketwatch in an article titled "Hardship withdrawals from 401k's reach 'concerning' all time high, Vanguard says." The story read, "Amid stubbornly high inflation, a record breaking share of Americans are turning their 401k accounts into emergency piggy banks, according to Vanguard. …
A very important stat I forgot to mention on the 8:30am data was the US personal savings rate which is now down to just 2.3%. The last time I saw something less was 2.1% in July 2005 in data going back to 1959. The bottom line is easy but unfortunate here, the savings well is running dry and why credit card usage, as mentioned by a few retailers over the past few …
[Read more...] about The savings well is running dry/ISM mfr’g below 50
Apartment List reported its National Rent report covering November and its index fell by 1% m/o/m, “marking the 3rd straight m/o/m decline, and the largest single month dip in the history of our index, going back to 2017. The timing of the recent cooldown in the rental market is consistent with the typical seasonal trend, but its magnitude has been notably sharper …
Sorry for no note earlier this morning as I had some travel issues. Let’s be honest, Jay Powell said nothing new and only just reaffirmed what we’ve heard from all of his colleagues over the past few weeks. I believe the reaction was more due to ‘no news is good news’ and it being the last day of the month. Quantifying the job losses in tech, Challenger’s labor …
To the point I made in the ADP note that we can now add US manufacturing to the recession side of the ledger, nothing said that better than the awful November Chicago PMI which plunged to 37.2 from 45.2 and well under the estimate of 47. It's the 3rd straight month below 50 and the lowest print since May 2020. I don't have the press release yet to see more …
ADP said only a net 127k private sector jobs were created in November, below the estimate of 200k and almost half the pace of 239k seen in October. Notable was the 100k person drop in manufacturing employment while construction shed 2k jobs. The service sector added 213k jobs but the dispersion was VERY mixed. Leisure/hospitality hired a net 224k, …
I'm going to start today with a quote from Crowdstrike in their earnings press release last night to highlight how circumspect businesses, especially small ones, are becoming in this slowing economic environment. After talking about still "robust growth", "total net new ARR (annual recurring revenue) was below our expectations as increased macroeconomic headwinds …
The S&P CoreLogic September home price index saw a 10.7% y/o/y increase, continuing to slow due to tough comps and outright declines m/o/m for a 3rd straight month for reasons we all know. The sunbelt states led the gains with Miami, Tampa, Charlotte, Atlanta and Dallas the top 5. The smallest increase was in San Francisco of only 2.3% followed by Seattle, …
[Read more...] about Home prices fall for a 3rd straight month/Consumer confidence
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor. Each day The Boock Report provides summaries and commentary on the macro data and news that matter, with analysis of what it all means and how it fits together.
