Reported over the weekend was the China November trade data. Exports fell 1.1% y/o/y, weaker than the estimate of up .8%. Exports to the US in particular fell by 23% y/o/y. Imports though surprised to the upside with a .3% y/o/y increase versus the forecast of down 1.4%. Part of that however was a 41% increase in the value of soybean imports, most likely much from the …
Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 12/6
Positives 1) Job growth in November totaled 266k, well more than the estimate of 180k and the two prior months were revised up by 41k. The 3 month private sector job growth average is 200k. The November figure includes a rebound of 41.3k jobs in vehicles/parts which about reverses the revised decline of 42.8k in October. Education/health care and leisure and …
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I need some help on this
Maybe a reader can help me with an explanation but quietly now the 10 yr and 30 yr Treasury yields are about back to unchanged on the day after the initial spike after the impressive jobs headline and wage gains. INTRADAY 10 yr INTRADAY 30 yr …
The BLS and ADP need to reconcile this
Job growth in November totaled 266k, well more than the estimate of 180k and the two prior months were revised up by 41k. The November figure includes a rebound of 41.3k jobs in vehicles/parts which about reverses the revised decline of 42.8k in October. Job growth in the household survey did slow to a pace of 83k and which combined with a modest rise of 40k in the …
Today
When looking at today's jobs data it will be important to average the October and November prints as it will smooth out the impact of the GM strike. In October 41.6k jobs were 'lost' in the motor vehicle/parts industry and we'll of course get that back in November. Wage data in Japan, a key missing link in their economy, saw regular base pay rise .6% y/o/y. It …
Claims/Trade deficit
Initial jobless claims totaled 203k, 12k less than expected and down from 213k last week. This brings the 4 week average to 218k from 220k. Again, because of the holiday and this year Thanksgiving be a bit later than usual in November, the seasonal adjustments are distorted so it’s best to look at the 4 week average as seen in the chart below. They are off the lows …
Tourist spending/Europe/Sentiment
I don't have much this morning as we sit and wait for the deal or no deal news and ahead of tomorrow's payroll report. With all the retailers that have reported earnings over the past month, we certainly saw the winners and losers depending on what area of retail one was in. But, there was one notable change in terms of spending trends and that was a slowdown in …
ISM services slips
The November ISM services index fell to 53.9 from 54.7 and that was below the estimate of 54.5. Of particular note is the Business Activity component which fell by 5.4 pts m/o/m to 51.6, matching the lowest level since July 2009. New orders did tick up by 1.9 pts to 57.1 but backlogs held below 50 at 48.5, the lowest since December 2016. In contrast to the soft …
ADP job growth slows further
ADP said private sector job growth in November slowed to a pace of 67k, about half the estimate of 135k and October was revised down by 4k to 121k. For the 5th month in the past 7, small businesses with less than 20 employees saw jobs shed. In terms of sectors, the goods producing side saw job losses of 18k with 6k each coming out of manufacturing, construction and …
Macro headlines remain the driver/Some data
The macro news headline driven market continues. The European markets and S&P futures lifted around 4am when BN reported that "US, China move closer to trade deal despite heated rhetoric." The story says "The US and China are moving closer to agreeing on the amount of tariffs that would be rolled back in a phase one trade deal despite tensions over Hong Kong and …
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Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.