Positives 1) The Administration pulled back from its everything tariff threat on Mexico. 2) Core retail sales in May beat the estimate by one tenth with a .5% m/o/m rise but it was actually better than that as April was revised up by 4 tenths. The y/o/y gain of 3.4% compares with the 5 yr average of 3.7% and helped by online retailing and sales at restaurants …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 6/14
Initial jobless claims totaled 222k, 7k more than expected and up from 219k last week. This shifts the 4 week average up to 218k from 215k. Continuing claims, delayed by a week, were little changed. Bottom line, the level of firing’s remains low because we know how hard it is to find the right worker. The hiring situation as seen last week is slowing down partly …
[Read more...] about Claims/Import prices, particularly from China
Unlike the rise in optimism seen with small business from the NFIB a few days ago, yesterday the Business Roundtable economic outlook survey for Q2 saw a 5.7 pt decline from Q1. Hiring plans fell 5.2 pts, capital spending plans were lower by 2.9 pts and expectations for sales dropped by 8.9 pts. Notwithstanding this, the CEO GDP estimate for this year rose one tenth …
[Read more...] about Business confidence/Sentiment/HIBOR/Sorry banks
The 10 yr note auction was blah. The yield of 2.13% was about spot on with the when issued yield. The bid to cover of 2.49 was about exactly the previous one year average of 2.48. The slight positive was that direct and indirect bidders took 80% of the auction vs the 12 month average of 74%. In response, the 10 yr yield is basically where it was just prior to the …
Both headline and core CPI for May were up by .1% m/o/m with the headline figure as expected while the core rate was one tenth less. Versus last year, headline CPI is up 1.8% and the core rate is higher by 2%. Again, we have services inflation and goods deflation. Services inflation ex energy rose 2.7% y/o/y vs 2.8% in April while goods prices ex food and energy …
With another plunge in the average 30 yr mortgage rate to 4.12%, the lowest since September 2017, mortgage apps jumped by 27%. Most of that was with refi's which exploded by 47% higher w/o/w, yes, w/o/w and are up almost 100% y/o/y. Purchase apps grew by 10% w/o/w and are also up 10% y/o/y. I'll say AGAIN as everyone debates what the Fed will do, the bond market has …
The 3 yr auction was pretty good. The yield was a touch below the when issued level. The bid to cover of 2.62 was slightly above the 12 month average of 2.57 and the level of direct and indirect bidders was the best since August 2017, leaving dealers with the least since then. With the 3 yr very sensitive to expectations for Fed policy, what’s this saying about the …
[Read more...] about 3 yr auction was good, what’s it saying?
Headline PPI, core PPI and core PPI also ex trade all were in line with expectations. The core rate was up 2.3% y/o/y as was the core rate ex trade. The headline y/o/y increase was 1.8%. Again we have services inflation and no goods inflation. On the goods side, food and energy prices fell m/o/m but were unchanged ex food and energy. Transportation costs in particular …
The May NFIB small business optimism index rose 1.5 pts m/o/m to 105 and that is the best since October. Notwithstanding the disappointing jobs data seen last week where in the ADP report in particular there was outright firing from small businesses, Plans to Hire rose 1 pt to the highest December. There is still a problem with filling positions as this component was …
After seeing the labor market change in May last week where there was certainly a pause in the pace of hiring, today’s April job openings data should be seen as old news. That said, there is still a lot of labor needed and any clearing up on the visibility front would be helpful. Job openings totaled 7.45mm, about in line with the forecast of just below 7.5mm and …
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.
