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[Read more...] about Tell us what you really think now that you’re not at the Fed
Not that we needed this stat because it is something I’ve talked a lot before but it is a good visual in case you didn’t see this chart from Steve Rattner on Twitter today, //twitter.com/SteveRattner/status/1391701559722057729, adding fuel to the debate about added unemployment benefits and what that does to the supply of labor. We will hear from a slew …
Positives 1)Offsetting somewhat the big jobs disappointment was the increase in hours worked to 35 from 34.9 which matches the most since at least 2006 that I have data on. Also, the participation rate ticked up by 2 bps to 61.7%, matching the highest since March 2020 although remains well below the 63.4% print in January 2020. The employment to population ratio …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events: 5/7
The BLS said a net 266k jobs were created in April, quite different than the expectations of a 1mm plus and the two prior months were revised down by 78k. The private sector added just 218k. The household survey said a net 328k jobs were gained and when compared to the rise in the labor force of 430k, the unemployment rate rose to 6.1% from 6%. Positively though, the …
Ahead of today's payroll report we saw more signs of the tight labor market and the rising wage situation from the NFIB. Next week they report the full April survey results but yesterday they published the labor market components. Plans to Hire was little changed at 21% from 22% in March but trying to find help is becoming more and more difficult. Positions Not Able …
Initial jobless claims fell to 498k from a revised 590k last week (revised up from 553k) and while that was 40k less than expected, it’s basically a push when including that revision. The 4 week average fell to 560k from 621k as a print of 742k fell out. PUA fell to 101k from 121k. Delayed by a week, continuing claims rose by 37k and at 3.69mm is 70k more than …
[Read more...] about Claims data/Productivity, unit labor costs
So let me get this straight. Our Federal Government starts a trade war with China, instigated by one side but supported by the other, in large part to have them better protect US intellectual property, and then the US Government just decides to expropriate vital US IP, some of which is the most important the world has ever seen? The Chinese are now laughing at us. …
Before I get to the details of the ISM data, we are seeing today another leg higher in inflation breakevens in the TIPS market. The 3 yr breakeven is up another 3 bps today to 2.82%, the highest since 2006. The 10 yr is breaking out to a fresh 8 year high. Chicago Fed President Evans today that after the base effect impact on inflation in coming months, he thinks …
ADP said a net 742k private sector jobs were added in April, 108k less than expected but almost half was offset by an upward revision of 48k to 565k for March. By company size the pace of job growth was evenly distributed with small businesses in particular contributing 235k jobs. The m/o/m job increase was mostly driven by the services side which added 636k vs …
My only thought with what Janet Yellen said yesterday and tried to pull back was that she was first referring to market driven rates and had no intention whatsoever in giving Jay Powell advice. I think she's responding to the main critique of all the spending in that it will generate higher inflation that would negatively impact the economy. She specifically made the …
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.
