Positives 1) March retail sales rebounded with a core gain of 1%, 6 tenths more than expected. Smoothing out the down December, up January, down February and up March, on a dollar basis we're just above (.2%) where sales totaled in November. 2) Initial jobless claims fell to just 192k, 13k less than expected and down from 197k last week. The 4 week average is now …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 4/18
The NY manufacturing index, the first April industrial figure to be reported, rose to 10.1 from 3.7 and that was 2 pts above the estimate. Last month was the lowest since May 2017. The internals however were very mixed. New orders got back the 4.5 pts it lost in March but backlogs fell back below zero again to -.7. Inventories jumped by 8.4 pts. The employment …
[Read more...] about NY mfr’g bounces but outlook drops sharply
So we've gone from criticizing the creation of a 'big, fat, ugly bubble' in 2016 to now 'let's blow this bubble sky high.' See in the chart though how good the Fed already is in blowing bubbles without any outside cajoling when comparing net worth, aka mostly asset prices, to disposable income (the actual economy). It dropped in Q4 as we know (which this chart …
Positives 1) Initial jobless claims for the week ended April 6th broke below 200k at 196k. That was 14k below the forecast and down from 204k last week (revised from 202k). That’s the lowest print since I was born. This brings the 4 week average down to 207k from 214k and that is also the lowest since 1969. Continuing claims, delayed by a week, fell to the lowest …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 4/12
The preliminary April UoM consumer confidence index fell to 96.9 from 98.4 and that was below the estimate of 98.2. All of the weakness was in the Expectations component which dropped by 3 pts. Current Conditions were up by .9 pts. Inflation expectations did fall by one tenth to 2.4% but that’s on the assumption that gasoline prices stop going up (they have been up or …
If you were wondering what was the cause of the stabilization in the Chinese PMI's last week for March, the loan data reported today was literally off the charts. Aggregate financing totaled 2.86 Trillion yuan, well more than the estimate of 1.85 Trillion. Of this, bank loans increased by 1.69 Trillion, 440b more than expected. To smooth out the January/February Lunar …
Initial jobless claims for the week ended April 6th broke below 200k at 196k. That was 14k below the forecast and down from 204k last week (revised from 202k). That’s the lowest print since I was born. This brings the 4 week average down to 207k from 214k and that is also the lowest since 1969. Continuing claims, delayed by a week, fell to the lowest since January. …
Last month I cited the Cass Freight Index in highlighting signs of a moderating US economy in February (h/t JB). Late yesterday they reported its March data. March shipments fell 1% y/o/y, the 4th month in a row that is negative. While Cass Freight is acknowledging the comps are tough, they did say "at a minimum, business plans and economic outlooks should be …
Sorry for the late review of the FOMC minutes which is the Fed’s 2nd chance of communicating a message to the market outside of the official statement and Powell press conference. Don’t mistaken these ‘minutes’ as actual minutes of what was said verbatim. Here are a few relevant points outside of the typical commentary on growth, the labor market and …
[Read more...] about The Fed pats itself on the back for rally in stocks
The March CPI rose .4% m/o/m headline as expected while the core rate was higher by .1% which was one tenth less than expected. Versus March last year the headline rate is up by 1.9% and the core rate is higher by 2%. While the 2% core rate is the slowest since February 2018, it does mark the 13th straight month with a 2 handle. Services inflation remains sticky …
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.
