Retail sales in July were weaker than expected. Sales ex auto’s and gasoline fell .1% instead of rising by 3 tenths as expected. Revisions netted out to no change in the two prior months. Also taking out building materials to get to the so called ‘control group’ saw sales flat m/o/m vs the estimate of up .3%. Vehicle sales rebounded by 1.1% m/o/m but are now down by …
[Read more...] about Retail Sales, UoM, Biz Inventories, NIRP
Initial jobless claims totaled 266k, about in line with the estimate of 265k and vs 267k last week which was revised down by 2k. The 4 week average did rise to 263k from 260k as a print of 254k dropped out of the average. Continuing claims, delayed by one week, rose by 14k. Bottom line, this weekly data point remains a broken record in a good way in that the pace of …
[Read more...] about Jobless Claims, Import Prices, 30 yr Auction
A funny thing happened on the way to more QE from the BoE as some investors wised up and decided to not sell their longer dated paper (15 years+) to the BoE. After all, why give up higher yielding bonds when the alternatives with the cash are pathetic? Why would any insurance company or pension fund sell their longer term bonds? We’ll soon see if this was a summertime …
[Read more...] about A funny thing happened on the way to more QE from the BoE
My focus this week is twofold. First is on the US consumer as we know that is the only thing keeping the US economy out of recession. After hearing apprehensive comments about spending over the last few weeks from Ford, Starbucks, Dunkin Donuts and Yum Brands, we heard this (lost in the euphoria of the good payroll report) from QVC on Friday: “Beginning in early June …
[Read more...] about My two main areas of focus this week are…
Positives1) Job growth in July of 255k was well above the estimate of 180k. The private sector added 217k of the jobs vs the estimate of 170k thus a key surprise was also the hiring jump within government, particularly at the local level. Government hiring has grown by 71k over the past two months vs the average of about 10k per month over the prior 12 months. The 3 …
[Read more...] about 8/5 – Succinct Summation of Week’s Events
July payrolls surprised to the upside with a gain of 255k, 75k more than expected. The private sector beat vs the estimate was 47k. Thus, government workers were a main boost to job growth. The private sector added 217k jobs vs the estimate of 170k and the two prior month revisions basically netted out to zero. For the headline, the two prior months were revised up by …
[Read more...] about Jobs surprise. What’s the trend? / Rate Hike Odds Jump.
Initial jobless claims rose 3k w/o/w to 269k which was 4k above the estimate. As a 254k print dropped out of the 4 week average, the new 4 week average rose to 260k from 257k. Continuing claims, delayed by a week, fell 6k after rising by 12k last week. Bottom line, ahead of tomorrow’s July payroll report, the pace of firing’s remains modest for the reasons we’ve known …
The July ISM services index fell 1 pt to 55.5 which was a touch below the estimate of 55.9 but is still above the average year to date of 54.6. This compares with the 2015 average of 57.2. New orders rose .4 pts to the best since October at 60.3 although there was a drop in the number of companies seeing an increase to 13 from 15 surveyed in June. Backlogs rose 3.5 …
[Read more...] about ISM, ADP, Services PMI’s, Mortgage Apps
The July ISM manufacturing index fell .6 pts to 52.6 which was a touch below the estimate of 53.0 and down from 53.2 in June which was a jump from 51.3 in May. New orders were basically unchanged at 56.9 vs 57 last month with 12 industries of 18 surveyed seeing growth, the same as in June. Backlogs however fell 4.5 pts to back below 50 at 48 after jumping by 5.5 pts …
[Read more...] about July ISM Still Above 50, UK PMI Not So Much, Bottom in Bond Yields?
Positives: The Employment Cost Index for Q2 saw private sector wages and salaries rise 2.6% y/o/y, the most since Q1 2015 and a pick up from the 2% gain in Q1. Benefits also rose by the most since Q1 2015 and by 1.7% y/o/y vs 1.2% in Q1. The Chicago PMI for July fell 1 pt to 55.8 but that was a bit higher than the estimate of 54. Smoothing out this very …
[Read more...] about 7/29 – Succinct Summation of Week’s Events
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.
