Positives: Initial jobless claims totaled 262k, 3k less than expected and down 4k from last week. As a print of 252k comes out of the 4 week average, the new average rose to 265k, the most in 6 weeks from 263k but it’s still very low. July CPI was flat headline as expected and rose .1% core which was one tenth less than expected. On a y/o/y basis, prices were …
[Read more...] about 8/19 – A Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events
Initial jobless claims totaled 262k, 3k less than expected and down 4k from last week. As a print of 252k comes out of the 4 week average, the new average rose to 265k, the most in 6 weeks from 263k but it’s still very low. Continuing claims, delayed by a week, rose 15k after a 19k increase last week. It’s quietly at the highest level since late March. Something to …
Bottom line, some committee members believed the data supported a rate hike. In fact, some “judged that another increase in the federal funds rate was or would soon be warranted, with a couple of them advocating an increase at this meeting.” On the other hand, many judged that it was appropriate to wait for additional information that would allow them to evaluate the …
[Read more...] about FOMC Minutes, Sovereign Bond Yields, Retail
I posted some commentary over at CNBC.com about the possibility of the Fed raising inflation targets. Here's a taste: I can't let an opportunity go by without criticizing a Fed official. I believe their feet should be held to the fire after creating a huge asset price bubble and culture of debt that is dragging down economic growth. Fed President John Williams …
[Read more...] about Fed Inflation Targets, CPI, Housing Starts, Industrial Production
This morning I was CNBC and one of the things we discussed was the importance of keeping an eye on Japan's government-sponsored bonds for equity signals. If Japan does pivot from NIRP there are ramifications across global bond yields and therefore equities. Watch here: The NAHB home builder sentiment index for August rose to 60 from 58 in July (revised from …
[Read more...] about Home Builders, NY Manufacturing, Japan Bonds a Canary?
Positives: As measured by wholesale prices, inflation was subdued in July as headline PPI fell .4% m/o/m and .3% ex food and energy. Business inventories in June rose .2% m/o/m, one tenth more than expected and with a 1.2% sales gain, the inventory to sales ratio fell to 1.39 from 1.40. That is the lowest since November but still remains elevated and not far …
[Read more...] about 8/12 – Succinct Summation of Week’s Events
Retail sales in July were weaker than expected. Sales ex auto’s and gasoline fell .1% instead of rising by 3 tenths as expected. Revisions netted out to no change in the two prior months. Also taking out building materials to get to the so called ‘control group’ saw sales flat m/o/m vs the estimate of up .3%. Vehicle sales rebounded by 1.1% m/o/m but are now down by …
[Read more...] about Retail Sales, UoM, Biz Inventories, NIRP
Initial jobless claims totaled 266k, about in line with the estimate of 265k and vs 267k last week which was revised down by 2k. The 4 week average did rise to 263k from 260k as a print of 254k dropped out of the average. Continuing claims, delayed by one week, rose by 14k. Bottom line, this weekly data point remains a broken record in a good way in that the pace of …
[Read more...] about Jobless Claims, Import Prices, 30 yr Auction
A funny thing happened on the way to more QE from the BoE as some investors wised up and decided to not sell their longer dated paper (15 years+) to the BoE. After all, why give up higher yielding bonds when the alternatives with the cash are pathetic? Why would any insurance company or pension fund sell their longer term bonds? We’ll soon see if this was a summertime …
[Read more...] about A funny thing happened on the way to more QE from the BoE
My focus this week is twofold. First is on the US consumer as we know that is the only thing keeping the US economy out of recession. After hearing apprehensive comments about spending over the last few weeks from Ford, Starbucks, Dunkin Donuts and Yum Brands, we heard this (lost in the euphoria of the good payroll report) from QVC on Friday: “Beginning in early June …
[Read more...] about My two main areas of focus this week are…
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.
