The Boock Report

United States Capital spending remained weak in May. Core spending (defined as orders for non defense capital goods ex aircraft) fell .2% m/o/m instead of rising by .4% as expected. April was revised up by one tenth. Also, shipments which is part of the GDP calculation also fell by .2% m/o/m vs the estimate of up .4% and that should lead to a downward revision to Q2 …

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Are stocks still good at discounting future news? In the Bank of International Settlements (the central banks' central bank) annual report, they argue that central banks should be removing accommodation not because of an expected rise in inflation that could be triggered by a shrinking of slack in labor markets but instead for market stability reasons. They said …

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United States The Markit US services and manufacturing composite index moderated in June to 53 from 53.6 in May with both components down m/o/m. The 53 print matches the lowest level since September and thus pre election territory. The services component fell to 53 from 53.6 while manufacturing was lower by .6 pts to 52.1. There was some mixed internals. New orders …

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Asia Continuing a trend of very uneven economic data, the Japanese manufacturing PMI fell 1.1 pts to 52, a 7 month low. Markit said “Slower growth was signaled in June, with both orders and output rising at the weakest rates since last year amid reports of a slight softening in market conditions.” Of note, both input and out prices rose and Markit said that firms …

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Initial jobless claims totaled 241k, about in line with the estimate of 240k and last week was revised up by 1k to 238k. As a 235k print drops out of the average, the 4 week average rose to 245k from 243k. Continuing claims, delayed by a week, rose by 8k. The bottom line remains the same in that employers are keeping a hold on their employees in light of a …

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The United States If you were wondering why the Fed has ramped up its monetary tightening after a 1.6% GDP growth rate in 2016 followed by 1.2% in Q1 and a move from 58 to -76.5 over the past 3 months in the US Citi Surprise index, I think Patrick Harker’s comments to the FT laid out their thinking very clearly. The FT reported that Harker “stressed that his business …

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United States Existing home sales in May, likely covering contract signings in February thru April, totaled 5.62mm, 70k more than expected while April was revised down by 10k to 5.56mm. The May figure is just about right in line with the average year to date of 5.61mm. For a 3rd straight month, months’ supply crept up to 4.2 which is the most since October which also …

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United States As I always want to give perspective on markets and the economy, I have to say this as we all debate the impact of Fed policy and whether the hopes for Trumponics are moving stocks higher or not. Let’s use the broad index of the Value Line Geometric equal weighted index of about 1700 stocks (see chart). On December 18th 2013, the day the Fed initiated …

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