The July ISM services index fell 1 pt to 55.5 which was a touch below the estimate of 55.9 but is still above the average year to date of 54.6. This compares with the 2015 average of 57.2. New orders rose .4 pts to the best since October at 60.3 although there was a drop in the number of companies seeing an increase to 13 from 15 surveyed in June. Backlogs rose 3.5 …
[Read more...] about ISM, ADP, Services PMI’s, Mortgage Apps
The July ISM manufacturing index fell .6 pts to 52.6 which was a touch below the estimate of 53.0 and down from 53.2 in June which was a jump from 51.3 in May. New orders were basically unchanged at 56.9 vs 57 last month with 12 industries of 18 surveyed seeing growth, the same as in June. Backlogs however fell 4.5 pts to back below 50 at 48 after jumping by 5.5 pts …
[Read more...] about July ISM Still Above 50, UK PMI Not So Much, Bottom in Bond Yields?
Positives: The Employment Cost Index for Q2 saw private sector wages and salaries rise 2.6% y/o/y, the most since Q1 2015 and a pick up from the 2% gain in Q1. Benefits also rose by the most since Q1 2015 and by 1.7% y/o/y vs 1.2% in Q1. The Chicago PMI for July fell 1 pt to 55.8 but that was a bit higher than the estimate of 54. Smoothing out this very …
[Read more...] about 7/29 – Succinct Summation of Week’s Events
What was most relevant from the BoJ was not what they did, it is what they didn’t do. Doubling their etf purchases is just more of the same and likely why the Nikkei rallied even though the yen is ripping higher. But, by not moving further into NIRP maybe is a reflection that Kuroda took note of the really cynical response on the part of both the Japanese banking …
[Read more...] about BoJ: Have They Reached the Logistical End of The Road?
TINA (‘there is no alternative’ to stocks which there never is in a bull market) and the dividend yield on stocks being higher than many bonds are the two main reasons being given for the persistent strength in large cap stocks. I don’t mean to pick on any one company but I want to use one as an example that if you’re going to ‘search for yield’ in stocks, remember …
[Read more...] about Market response to FOMC, Atlanta Fed, BoJ
On the heels of the 287k print in June, the FOMC acknowledged this by saying “job gains were strong in June following weak growth in May.” They added this new line on the labor market that wasn’t there previously: “On balance, payrolls and other labor market indicators point to some increase in labor utilization in recent months.” They repeated that household spending …
[Read more...] about Ongoing game of whether and when to hike measly 25 bps continues
Core durable goods orders, as measured by non defense capital goods ex aircraft, rose .2% m/o/m in June with May revised down by one tenth to a decline of .5%. It was in line with the estimate for up .2%. This measure of capital spending was still down 4.2% y/o/y and remains the missing piece of US economic activity. Durable goods ex transports were much weaker than …
[Read more...] about Durable Goods, Japan Stimulus, Fed Funds Futures, more…
I just sat down with Guy Adami and Dan Nathan for the first of many podcasts for The Boock Report. It's about 45 minutes long and we cover the FOMC statement tomorrow, what other Central Banks like the ECB and BoJ are doing. And ultimately what it all means for the dollar, yields, commodities, equities and the economy as a whole. I specifically discuss what was in the …
[Read more...] about New Podcast – FOMC Preview: It’s the Central Bank’s World
A few months ago I referred to monetary policy as entering a Jungleland where central bankers are essentially lost in the woods. After seeing Guns N Roses Saturday night, I'll refer to this week as Welcome to the Jungle. The week is all about the Fed and the BoJ. The key questions to be answered are will the former raise the possibility of a rate hike this year and …
[Read more...] about FOMC and BoJ Preview: Welcome to the Jungle
Positives: Initial jobless claims remained very low at 253k, 12k less than expected and little changed with last week’s print of 254k. This brings the 4 week average down to 258k from 259k last week and near a level seen 3 months ago. Delayed by a week, continuing claims fell by 25k after rising by 36k last week. The Markit’s index of US manufacturing for July …
[Read more...] about 7/22 – A Succinct Summary of the Week’s Events
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.
