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January 17, 2023 By Peter Boockvar

That was ugly

After two months in a row to end 2022 seeing contraction in US manufacturing as measured by ISM, the January NY manufacturing index, the first January industrial figure to be reported, plunged to -32.9 from -11.2 and that was well worse than the estimate of -8.6. If you take out covid, this is the worst print since March 2009.

New orders (forward looking) went from -3.6 to -31.1 while shipments (backward looking) dropped to -22.4 from +5.3. Backlogs fell to -14.3 and are in contraction for an 8th straight month. Inventories rose slightly. Employment dropped 11 pts to the lowest since September 2020 and the workweek fell further below zero at -10.4. Delivery times fell 1 pt and prices paid fell a sharp 17 pts to 33.  

The 6 month outlook rose 1.7 pts to 8, so assumes some improvement over this time frame from what was seen in January but not much. Capital spending plans fell a touch but did rise for tech spending by 5 pts to the best since last June.

I want to make clear here that these diffusion indices measure the direction of change, not degree but an overwhelming number of respondents saw the pace of business contract in the NY region in January.

Notwithstanding the bad report, Treasury yields are at the high of the morning as they are too in Europe and as we await what the BoJ will do this week, if anything.

NY Mfr’g

New Orders

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About Peter

Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor. Each day The Boock Report provides summaries and commentary on the macro data and news that matter, with analysis of what it all means and how it fits together.

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Disclaimer - Peter Boockvar is an independent economist and market strategist. The Boock Report is independently produced by Peter Boockvar. Peter Boockvar is also the Chief Investment Officer of Bleakley Financial Group, LLC a Registered Investment Adviser. The Boock Report and Bleakley Financial Group, LLC are separate entities. Content contained in The Boock Report newsletters should not be construed as investment advice offered by Bleakley Financial Group, LLC or Peter Boockvar. This market commentary is for informational purposes only and is not meant to constitute a recommendation of any particular investment, security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy. The views expressed in this commentary should not be taken as advice to buy, sell or hold any security. To the extent any of the content published as part of this commentary may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person. No chart, graph, or other figure provided should be used to determine which securities to buy or sell. Consult your advisor about what is best for you.

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