Positives1) Job growth in July of 255k was well above the estimate of 180k. The private sector added 217k of the jobs vs the estimate of 170k thus a key surprise was also the hiring jump within government, particularly at the local level. Government hiring has grown by 71k over the past two months vs the average of about 10k per month over the prior 12 months. The 3 …
[Read more...] about 8/5 – Succinct Summation of Week’s Events
July payrolls surprised to the upside with a gain of 255k, 75k more than expected. The private sector beat vs the estimate was 47k. Thus, government workers were a main boost to job growth. The private sector added 217k jobs vs the estimate of 170k and the two prior month revisions basically netted out to zero. For the headline, the two prior months were revised up by …
[Read more...] about Jobs surprise. What’s the trend? / Rate Hike Odds Jump.
Initial jobless claims rose 3k w/o/w to 269k which was 4k above the estimate. As a 254k print dropped out of the 4 week average, the new 4 week average rose to 260k from 257k. Continuing claims, delayed by a week, fell 6k after rising by 12k last week. Bottom line, ahead of tomorrow’s July payroll report, the pace of firing’s remains modest for the reasons we’ve known …
The July ISM services index fell 1 pt to 55.5 which was a touch below the estimate of 55.9 but is still above the average year to date of 54.6. This compares with the 2015 average of 57.2. New orders rose .4 pts to the best since October at 60.3 although there was a drop in the number of companies seeing an increase to 13 from 15 surveyed in June. Backlogs rose 3.5 …
[Read more...] about ISM, ADP, Services PMI’s, Mortgage Apps
The July ISM manufacturing index fell .6 pts to 52.6 which was a touch below the estimate of 53.0 and down from 53.2 in June which was a jump from 51.3 in May. New orders were basically unchanged at 56.9 vs 57 last month with 12 industries of 18 surveyed seeing growth, the same as in June. Backlogs however fell 4.5 pts to back below 50 at 48 after jumping by 5.5 pts …
[Read more...] about July ISM Still Above 50, UK PMI Not So Much, Bottom in Bond Yields?
Positives: The Employment Cost Index for Q2 saw private sector wages and salaries rise 2.6% y/o/y, the most since Q1 2015 and a pick up from the 2% gain in Q1. Benefits also rose by the most since Q1 2015 and by 1.7% y/o/y vs 1.2% in Q1. The Chicago PMI for July fell 1 pt to 55.8 but that was a bit higher than the estimate of 54. Smoothing out this very …
[Read more...] about 7/29 – Succinct Summation of Week’s Events
What was most relevant from the BoJ was not what they did, it is what they didn’t do. Doubling their etf purchases is just more of the same and likely why the Nikkei rallied even though the yen is ripping higher. But, by not moving further into NIRP maybe is a reflection that Kuroda took note of the really cynical response on the part of both the Japanese banking …
[Read more...] about BoJ: Have They Reached the Logistical End of The Road?
TINA (‘there is no alternative’ to stocks which there never is in a bull market) and the dividend yield on stocks being higher than many bonds are the two main reasons being given for the persistent strength in large cap stocks. I don’t mean to pick on any one company but I want to use one as an example that if you’re going to ‘search for yield’ in stocks, remember …
[Read more...] about Market response to FOMC, Atlanta Fed, BoJ
On the heels of the 287k print in June, the FOMC acknowledged this by saying “job gains were strong in June following weak growth in May.” They added this new line on the labor market that wasn’t there previously: “On balance, payrolls and other labor market indicators point to some increase in labor utilization in recent months.” They repeated that household spending …
[Read more...] about Ongoing game of whether and when to hike measly 25 bps continues
Core durable goods orders, as measured by non defense capital goods ex aircraft, rose .2% m/o/m in June with May revised down by one tenth to a decline of .5%. It was in line with the estimate for up .2%. This measure of capital spending was still down 4.2% y/o/y and remains the missing piece of US economic activity. Durable goods ex transports were much weaker than …
[Read more...] about Durable Goods, Japan Stimulus, Fed Funds Futures, more…
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.
