After yesterday’s improved 2 yr note auction compared with the poor one seen in June, the 5 yr auction was better as well. The yield was below the when issued, the bid to cover was above the one year average and direct and indirect bidders took 75% of the auction vs the previous 12 month average of 66%. Bottom line, the market doesn’t believe the Fed is raising …
New home sales, Markit Manufacturing, Richmond Fed and more…
New home sales in July totaled 654k, well above the estimate of 580k and up from 582k in June. This is the best pace of sales in this recovery and was mostly driven by a 61k home sale increase in the South. The West and Midwest were flat and the Northeast rose by 10k. With the rise in sales, months’ supply fell to 4.3 from 4.9, the lowest since 2013. Fortunately for …
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She’s the one they call Dr. Feelgood?
“She’s the one they call Dr. Feelgood, she’s the one that makes ya feel alright.” I know, Motley Crue is not for everybody and I’ve substituted She for He, but I lay out the lyrics just days before we hear from our monetary Dr who is not just an academic doctorate. Ben Bernanke and Alan Greenspan went to the same med school where markets LOVED the monetary drugs that …
8/19 – A Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events
Positives: Initial jobless claims totaled 262k, 3k less than expected and down 4k from last week. As a print of 252k comes out of the 4 week average, the new average rose to 265k, the most in 6 weeks from 263k but it’s still very low. July CPI was flat headline as expected and rose .1% core which was one tenth less than expected. On a y/o/y basis, prices were …
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Jobless Claims, Philly, BoJ, UK
Initial jobless claims totaled 262k, 3k less than expected and down 4k from last week. As a print of 252k comes out of the 4 week average, the new average rose to 265k, the most in 6 weeks from 263k but it’s still very low. Continuing claims, delayed by a week, rose 15k after a 19k increase last week. It’s quietly at the highest level since late March. Something to …
FOMC Minutes, Sovereign Bond Yields, Retail
Bottom line, some committee members believed the data supported a rate hike. In fact, some “judged that another increase in the federal funds rate was or would soon be warranted, with a couple of them advocating an increase at this meeting.” On the other hand, many judged that it was appropriate to wait for additional information that would allow them to evaluate the …
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Fed Inflation Targets, CPI, Housing Starts, Industrial Production
I posted some commentary over at CNBC.com about the possibility of the Fed raising inflation targets. Here's a taste: I can't let an opportunity go by without criticizing a Fed official. I believe their feet should be held to the fire after creating a huge asset price bubble and culture of debt that is dragging down economic growth. Fed President John Williams …
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Home Builders, NY Manufacturing, Japan Bonds a Canary?
This morning I was CNBC and one of the things we discussed was the importance of keeping an eye on Japan's government-sponsored bonds for equity signals. If Japan does pivot from NIRP there are ramifications across global bond yields and therefore equities. Watch here: The NAHB home builder sentiment index for August rose to 60 from 58 in July (revised from …
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8/12 – Succinct Summation of Week’s Events
Positives: As measured by wholesale prices, inflation was subdued in July as headline PPI fell .4% m/o/m and .3% ex food and energy. Business inventories in June rose .2% m/o/m, one tenth more than expected and with a 1.2% sales gain, the inventory to sales ratio fell to 1.39 from 1.40. That is the lowest since November but still remains elevated and not far …
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Retail Sales, UoM, Biz Inventories, NIRP
Retail sales in July were weaker than expected. Sales ex auto’s and gasoline fell .1% instead of rising by 3 tenths as expected. Revisions netted out to no change in the two prior months. Also taking out building materials to get to the so called ‘control group’ saw sales flat m/o/m vs the estimate of up .3%. Vehicle sales rebounded by 1.1% m/o/m but are now down by …
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Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.