Positives: July saw a new record high in the amount of US job openings. They totaled 5.87mm in the month, about 240k more than expected and up from 5.64mm in June. The level of hiring’s rose to a 4 month high but are 63k below that March level when there was 200k less job openings. This again points to the supply side (or lack thereof) of the labor market …
[Read more...] about 9/9 – Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events
I’m going to start off by repeating that I continue to believe that global interest rates have bottomed and that the post UK vote referendum was the final blow off. I say this again because more evidence continues to build of the logistical and credibility limits the BoJ and ECB (the current center’s of monetary insanity) are reaching in their QE programs. The 10 yr …
Initial jobless claims fell to 259k from 263k last week. The estimate was 265k. This brings the 4 week average to 261k from 263k last week. Continuing claims, delayed by a week, fell by 7k after rising by 6k in the week prior. Bottom line, the story remains the same in that the pace of firing’s remain modest and is likely due in part to employer’s holding on tight to …
[Read more...] about Jobless Claims, Draghi, China and more…
I don’t think anyone should be surprised by the Beige Book. As to what it means for the next Fed meeting, will they focus most on the employment and inflation data and check off their dual mandate box with another hike or will they actually look at all the economic data and sit on their hands, again. I’ll say for the umpteenth time, the economic data certainly doesn’t …
[Read more...] about Beige Book, Job Openings, Mortgage Apps, and more…
The ISM non manufacturing index for August was weak, falling to 51.4 from 55.5 in July and that was well below expectations of 54.9. This is the worst print since February 2010 when it was at 50.8. New orders sunk by 9 pts to just above 50 at 51.4. Backlogs fell back below 50 at 49.5 vs 51 in July. Employment was barely above 50 at 50.7, down .7 pts. Export orders …
note: I will on vacation next week. Have a great last week of the Summer and I'll see you here afterwards. Positives: Core capital spending orders, defined as non defense capital goods ex aircraft, rebounded in July. They rose 1.6% m/o/m, well more than expectations of up .2% but they still remain deep in contraction on a y/o/y basis, by 7.1%. Initial …
[Read more...] about 8/26 – A Succinct Summation of the Weeks Events
In Janet Yellen’s speech titled The Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy Toolkit (read full text here) she used Jackson Hole as a venue to discuss the near term outlook for the US economy and what it means for monetary policy. She said specifically on policy: “Based on this economic outlook, the FOMC continues to anticipate that gradual increases in the federal funds …
[Read more...] about Yellen Emerges, Sees Her Shadow, 4 More Weeks
After yesterday’s improved 2 yr note auction compared with the poor one seen in June, the 5 yr auction was better as well. The yield was below the when issued, the bid to cover was above the one year average and direct and indirect bidders took 75% of the auction vs the previous 12 month average of 66%. Bottom line, the market doesn’t believe the Fed is raising …
New home sales in July totaled 654k, well above the estimate of 580k and up from 582k in June. This is the best pace of sales in this recovery and was mostly driven by a 61k home sale increase in the South. The West and Midwest were flat and the Northeast rose by 10k. With the rise in sales, months’ supply fell to 4.3 from 4.9, the lowest since 2013. Fortunately for …
[Read more...] about New home sales, Markit Manufacturing, Richmond Fed and more…
“She’s the one they call Dr. Feelgood, she’s the one that makes ya feel alright.” I know, Motley Crue is not for everybody and I’ve substituted She for He, but I lay out the lyrics just days before we hear from our monetary Dr who is not just an academic doctorate. Ben Bernanke and Alan Greenspan went to the same med school where markets LOVED the monetary drugs that …
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.
