POSITIVES As we soon enter the 9th year of the economic expansion, the FOMC raised interest rates to the range of .75-1.00% and finally got off the snail’s pace of once each December seen the last two years. The preliminary UoM consumer confidence index for March rose to 97.6 from 96.3 in February and that was slightly above the estimate of 97.0. Since the …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 3/17
The preliminary UoM consumer confidence index for March rose to 97.6 from 96.3 in February and that was slightly above the estimate of 97.0. Since the October one yr low of 87.2, we saw it get to as high as 98.5 in January. This are the best levels of this recovery and compares with the levels seen in the mid 2000’s but still below the 1990’s party. Almost all of the …
Industrial production in February was unchanged m/o/m vs the estimate of up .2% but because January was revised up by two tenths we can call it in line. The amazingly mild winter has caused a sharp decline in utility output which has impacted the headline figure. Manufacturing production rose .5% as expected but off a better than expected base as January was revised …
[Read more...] about IP, Focus on Manufacturing, Not weather
On the heels of ECB member Nowotny’s comments yesterday that they will most likely be raising rates before QE ends (but we still have no idea when), the 2 yr German bund yield is higher by 2.5 bps to a still insane -.765%. That is a 6 week high. Sovereign yields are also higher throughout the region on the long end too. The French 10 yr yield is 2 bps from a 6 month …
[Read more...] about Around the World – ECB, Euro, Sovereigns, China
This story is not really saying anything about the timing of when the ECB will raise its deposit rate from -.40% but it does confirm the story last week that it is being discussed and the ECB will take a different tact than the Fed. This is because much of the corporate financing in Europe takes place via the banks as opposed to the much wider reach of the US capital …
Initial jobless claims totaled 241k, about in line with the estimate of 240k and vs 243k last week. The 4 week average was little changed at 237k. Continuing claims delayed by a week fell by 30k. The bottom line story remains the same with employers keeping a strong hold on their employees on hopes of quicker economic growth with better fiscal and regulatory policy …
[Read more...] about Jobless Claims, Mfr’g, Housing, Post FOMC, FX, Treasuries, BoJ, BoE, Yields
I've done an update to my ideas page. (members click here) This week's write-up includes specific equity, ETN, and ETF commentary. I include this to show what specifically I am looking at on a risk/reward basis as well as idea generation that can then be applied to your own investments and risk analysis. This will be a permanent, but just the latest, addition to …
After hiking rates, the markets are excited (bonds, stocks, gold and everyone short the dollar) because the Fed didn’t change their dot plot and thus remain on pace with 3 hikes this year in total. Even though the dot plot is not relevant because so much can change, the Fed reminded us all of the gradual nature of their expected behavior on this rate hike cycle. …
The Atlanta Fed has lowered its Q1 GDP estimate to .9% from 1.2% after seeing the BLS report Friday and consumer spending and CPI today. This is obviously in contrast to the dramatic improvement we’ve seen in confidence so let’s assume that Q2 will see a nice bounce back. It better: …
Home builder confidence jumped to 71 in March, up from 65 in February and vs expectations of no change. This is the highest level since June 2005 when this figure peaked at 72. Of course the level of activity today is nowhere near the level then and again reflects that these sentiment numbers only measure the direction of change. Present conditions rose by 7 pts to 78 …
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor. Each day The Boock Report provides summaries and commentary on the macro data and news that matter, with analysis of what it all means and how it fits together.
