With all due respect to the office of the President, I can't think of many other bigger wastes of my time than watching the State of the Union address. I honestly can't remember the last time I watched more than 10 minutes of one as nothing ever is new. It ends up being a combination of pats on the back and promises on everything with applauses every 5 minutes from …
[Read more...] about State of the Union, Taxes, Treasuries and more…
Positives Existing home sales in January, likely covering contracts signed between October and December (and thus straddling the pre and post election move in mortgage rates) totaled 5.69mm, 140k more than expected and up from 5.51mm in December. This is a new high in this cycle but still remains well below the bubble peak of 7.25mm back in September 2005. …
[Read more...] about 2/24 – Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events
As I said yesterday, I expected nothing new from the FOMC minutes as we heard from Yellen and other Fed members since the last meeting and nothing new is what we got. The FOMC continues to suffer from monetary constipation where this constant hemming and hawing over a rate hike won’t stop even in the face of a world that clearly changed on November 8th and as we …
[Read more...] about Mnuchin & Tax Reform, Yellen & Wealth Effect, Initial Jobless Claims and more…
Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria. You likely have heard that quote before from John Templeton, an investing hero of mine. My prior boss, another great investor, often cited it and I felt that it was an important guide in gauging what stage of a bull market we are in. Sentiment is an unusual thing as its …
[Read more...] about What Would John Templeton Think?, Home Sales, Mortgage Apps, Fed Minutes
This was out yesterday but I need to highlight it in case you missed it. German PPI in January rose .7% m/o/m, well above the estimate of up .3% and brings the y/o/y gain to 2.4% from 1% in December. This is the fastest pace of gain since March 2012 and yes energy is the main culprit but PPI ex energy was still up a sharp .6% m/o/m and 1.8% y/o/y. What is also …
[Read more...] about Some Inflation in Europe, Fed Commentary, March Hike?, and more…
Positives FINALLY (but a few years too late), Janet Yellen realizes that “waiting too long to remove accommodation would be unwise, potentially requiring the FOMC to eventually raise rates rapidly, which could risk disrupting financial markets and pushing the economy into recession.” FINALLY, BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda publicly acknowledges that “a new …
[Read more...] about 2/17 – Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events
I’ve continued to call out Mark Carney for the inflation problem he has on his hands and which he further facilitated with his panic easing after Brexit. For a 2nd straight month retail sales ex fuel were very disappointing. They fell .2% m/o/m in January vs the estimate of up .7%. Also, December sales were revised to a 2.2% m/o/m decline from -2% and vs the initial …
January housing starts totaled 1.246mm, 20k more than expected and December was revised up by 53k to 1.279mm. Single family starts were up by 15k to 823k after falling by 18k in December. Multi family starts were 423k, down about 50k but after jumping by 150k in the month prior. Permits grew m/o/m but it was all in multi family. Starts there jumped by 79k to 477k, …
Headline CPI rose .6% m/o/m, double expectations and brings the y/o/y gain to 2.5%, the highest level in almost 5 years. Yes, energy was a main factor (up 4% m/o/m and 11% y/o/y) but the rate ex energy and food jumped .3% m/o/m and 2.3% y/o/y, also above expectations. The core rate pace matches the most since September 2008 as services inflation ex energy was up .3% …
[Read more...] about Hot CPI, Industrial Production, Jan Retail Sales, NY Manufacturing and more…
Rate hike odds for March were at 34% before the CPI (they rose after), really not much of a change from the 30% before we heard from Yellen. I believe this is less due to what she said (she made it clear that they want to raise rates sooner rather than later) but more due to her reputation as the ultimate dove. The track record speaks for itself. Thus, with the market …
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor. Each day The Boock Report provides summaries and commentary on the macro data and news that matter, with analysis of what it all means and how it fits together.
