Job openings in March shrunk for a 3rd straight month to 9.59mm. That’s the least since April 2021 as the economy was then reopening. It remains well above the February 2020 level of about 7mm but that was before the whole work from home trend skyrocketed which in turn impacted the amount of job openings that could be posted for one job. So, I can’t make an apples to apples comparison to pre Covid.
The hiring rate was unchanged at 4% while the quit rate fell one tenth to 2.5% after rising by one tenth in February.
Job openings for construction work (we know that residential and commercial are under some pressure while factories, healthcare, etc… are still doing well), fell to the 2nd least since June 2021. Manufacturing job openings fell to the lowest since February 2021. Retail job openings at 717k are now below where they stood in February 2020 at 730k. With the freight recession we are now well aware of, job openings in transportation stand at the least since February 2021. The usual steady eddy healthcare/social assistance job openings are at the lowest since August 2021.
After a steady decline, job openings in ‘information’ rose for a 3rd month. Job openings for leisure/hospitality still remained plentiful at about 1.5mm. Job openings for financial activities rose a touch m/o/m.
Bottom line, this is another data point reflecting fraying around the edges of the labor market and joins the lifting in both initial and continuing claims over the past month. It first starts with a slowdown in the pace of hiring’s that then filters into firing’s. Friday’s expectations for payrolls is at 180k which if achieved would be the least since December 2019 not including Covid.
A BFF of mine Danielle DiMartino Booth in yesterday Quill Intelligence Feather saw from Friday’s employment component within the UoM consumer confidence index that “the top tercile of income earners’ expectations that the unemployment rate will rise in the coming year at cycle high 54%. Not only is this up 12 whopping percentage points” but they note “Since 1979 inception, this definitive metric has an 85% hit rate for recession…in the current month.” The bold is theirs.
Job Openings
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