Headline CPI in May rose by .6% headline and .7% core vs the estimate for up .5% for both. These follow .8% and .9% increases respectively in April. Versus last year, headline CPI is now up 5% and the core rate by 3.8%. To rid ourselves of the easy comp/base effect discussion, May headline CPI was up 5.1% versus May 2019. In other words, about 2.5% per year. The core …
[Read more...] about We can now toss out base effect excuse/Claims
Yesterday Investors Intelligence said the Bull/Bear spread is getting closer to 40 again as Bulls rose 1 pt to 54.5 and Bears are down to 16.2, the lowest since last August. Today, AAII said Bears rose just under a point to 20.7 and that is a bit off the lowest level since the 1st week in January 2018 seen last week which was right after the major tax bill was passed …
[Read more...] about Sentiment/China loan data/BoK sets up rate hikes
The 10 yr note auction was great. The yield of 1.497% was about 1 bp below the when issued pricing just prior. The bid to cover of 2.58 was well above the one year average of 2.40. Also, direct and indirect bidders took almost 85% of the auction, above the 12 month average of 76%. This solid demand of course comes right before tomorrow’s CPI and the ECB meeting …
Another week and more evidence of low interest rates losing its effectiveness. With housing the most influenced sector in the entire US economy by changes in interest rates, purchases were little changed on the week, up .3% after a 3.1% drop last week. They are down 24% y/o/y. Refi's dropped for the 3rd straight week, by 5.1% and are lower by 27% y/o/y. We know what's …
The chief economist of the Bank of England, Andy Haldane, is leaving at month's end but he remains the most hawkish committee member and he's speaking out again and flexing on that reputation. He referred to the recent higher inflation stats by saying there was "some pretty punchy pressure on prices...If both pay, and costs are picking up, inflation on the high street …
There was a time, up until now, that the job openings number was looked at as an afterthought because it was delayed in its release. Not anymore in the context of the growing mismatch between the demand for workers and the supply of them. The number of job openings in April jumped to 9.29mm from 8.29mm in March. We’ve never seen this much availability after the …
Don't call it a taper but the Bank of Japan did not buy one share of ETF's in May. Not one of a market that they already own 70% of. Don't worry though because I'm sure they will be back on any sharp decline in stocks. That said, there has been an enormous amount of pressure on them to stop because of the distortive impact of what they are doing in return for little …
[Read more...] about Don’t call it a taper/Truth serum/40 yr high
To further my point from Friday with the late 1990's stock charts of a few names that the movie we are seeing now with some stocks is just a sequel with a slightly different script, here was a front page cover of Forbes back in 1998, h/t SH. The only definition I know of the word 'transitory' is "not permanent." The only question is not what we think that …
[Read more...] about ‘A Bunch of Kids are Tormenting Wall Street!’
Positives 1)ADP said a net 978k private sector jobs were added in May, well more than the estimate of 650k but partly offset by an 88k downward revision to April to 654k. The job distribution by business size was well balanced. ADP said “While goods producers grew at a steady pace, it is service providers that accounted for the lion’s share of the gains, far …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 6/4
As we hear rationalizations for the current meme stock craze as this time is different, I want to show some charts of stocks from the late 1990’s for those that weren’t around and as a reminder to those that were watching. Here are the names shown: Iomega, JDS Uniphase, Verisign, Ciena (the most extreme), TimeWarner/AOL, Emulex, Lucent and Nokia. IOMEGA JDS …
[Read more...] about “But life is just a party, and parties weren’t meant to last”
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.
