While the 'short strokes' are turning out to be the hardest part, I'd still be shocked if those December 15th tariffs were implemented, not because it would impact the holiday season directly in terms of procurement of products but because of what it could do to the stock market 10 days before Christmas. The only data point out today is November auto sales after …
[Read more...] about The ‘short strokes’ are the hardest part/Auto’s/RBA/NIRP
On the heels of some signs of bottoming in the manufacturing PMI’s overseas (hard to tell what is just a positive sentiment shift on likelihood of China trade agreement versus what’s actual activity), the November US ISM manufacturing index unexpectedly fell a touch to 48.1 from 48.3 and below the forecast of 49.2. It marks now the 4th straight month of contraction in …
The S&P futures fell off their early morning high after the Trump tweet that called out Brazil and Argentina and "effective, immediately, I will restore the Tariffs on all Steel & Aluminum that is shipped into the US from those countries." He is specifically criticizing the dramatic falls in their currencies and telling the Fed to "Lower Rates & Loosen." …
[Read more...] about Tariff tool again/Fed/Data lifting rates
Positives The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow Q4 GDP estimate was lifted to 1.7% from .4% last week. Initial jobless claims after two weeks of notable upside surprises came in at 213k, 8k less than expected vs 228k last week (revised up by 1k) and 227k in the week prior. As a print of 219k dropped out, the 4 week average fell to 220k vs 221k. Continuing claims, delayed by a …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 11/29
Thanks to some better than expected data over the past two days, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast has lifted to 1.7% from .4%. Adding 6 tenths in particular however was yesterday’s trade data on goods as because imports fell more than exports, the math leads to an increase in GDP although both declined. Either way, it is what it is with growth expectations back …
The November Chicago manufacturing index rose to 46.3 from the pretty depressed, in part GM strike driven, level in October of 43.2. That though was slightly below the estimate of 47. It marks the 5th month in the past 6 below 50 and thus reflecting a contraction. I’m sure the GM strike over the past few months was a main factor but I was hoping for more of a bounce …
Initial jobless claims after two weeks of notable upside surprises came in at 213k, 8k less than expected vs 228k last week (revised up by 1k) and 227k in the week prior. As a print of 219k dropped out, the 4 week average fell to 220k vs 221k. Continuing claims, delayed by a week, fell by 57k. Bottom line, it's good to see the claims decline after the two prior weeks. …
Yesterday after I heard Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan again express his concern with the high levels of corporate debt I found this chart on the WSJ Daily Shot from Goldman Sachs highlighting the net debt to EBITDA ratios for the median IG and HY ex commodity related company. It's a good visual to what extent corporate cash flows are being asked to service …
[Read more...] about Corporate debt/Some other notable things
The exports of goods in October fell to the lowest level since January 2018 at $135.3b, down .7% m/o/m after a 1.3% decline in September. They are also down 3.7% y/o/y and helps to explain the moderation in economic growth for reasons we all know. Also reflecting softening activity was the 2.4% m/o/m and 6.9% y/o/y decline in imports to the least since October 2017. …
[Read more...] about Trade/Home sales/Mfr’g/Consumer confidence/Yields slip again
This stock market melt up is impressive for sure, putting the S&P 500 at 19x 2019 earnings. I'm optimistic too that there will be a deal of some sort. The yield curve at yesterday's close, the 3 month vs 10 yr, on the other hand flattened for the 9th straight day going from 27 bps to 14 bps. I don't believe the Treasury market is betting against a deal, I just …
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.
