Reflecting the reopenings, spending rebounding in May by 8.2% m/o/m after the drop of 12.6% in April and 6.6% fall in March. With the revisions it was about as expected. The goods side led the rebound with a 14% gain after two months of 12% declines. Services bounced more modestly by 5.4% as that will take more time to recover. Personal income fell 4.2% m/o/m …
Another quiet one
It's again another quiet, summer morning outside of the focus on the virus count which is simply do to more people going outside and not wearing masks, something hopefully easily addressable but I know easier said than done. If you missed it, it was refreshing to hear from Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan yesterday express some humility on the powers of what …
Claims/Durable Goods/Trade
Initial jobless claims totaled 1.48mm, above the estimate of 1.32mm but down from 1.54mm last week (revised from 1.508mm). So after 9 weeks of sharp slowdowns in the pace of increase in those filing initial claims, the rate over the past two weeks has slowed and of course is still very elevated. Delayed by a week, continuing claims came in at 19.5mm, down from 20.29mm …
I don’t have much
Individual investors still don't share any level of enthusiasm for stocks that 'professional' investors do. AAII said Bulls were little changed at 24.1, the lowest in 6 weeks. Bears rose 1.1 pts to 48.9 after last weeks 9.7 pt gain and that is the most in 6 weeks. I continue to believe that individuals are voting the current economic situation while 'professionals' …
What works/Sentiment/Some data/100 yrs
There is clear disappointment that the warmer weather has not been effective in slowing the pace of virus spread but what is clear is wearing a mask does. The good that will come of the increase in positive tests is that those who think it's cool not to wear a mask will start to get the message, whether voluntary or forced by the local/state government, that it is …
Some US economy stats
There was improvement in the Markit’s June US manufacturing and services PMI but were a bit below expectations. Manufacturing rose to 49.6 from 39.8 while services grew to 46.7 from 37.5. Again, direction not degree is the driver here as things reopen. With this composite index still below 50 at 46.8, it reflects a situation where “the overall pace of decline eased …
Loose lips move markets/Inflation/PMI’s
Tariff fan Peter Navarro put the S&P futures on quite the wild ride last night with his comments at around 7pm est that the China deal was dead only to have Trump in a tweet to walk it back about 3 hours later, "The China Trade Deal is fully intact. Hopefully they will continue to live up to the terms of the Agreement!" The Chinese wasted no time in calling …
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Existing home sales in May
Existing home sales in May, likely reflecting contract signings in January thru April, totaled 3.91mm annualized and that is below the estimate of 4.09mm and down from 4.33mm in April. This is the slowest pace since 2010 but we of course know the main reason. The supply did increase which it always does in the Spring but combined with the lower sales count brought the …
Morning
After going out for dinner Saturday night for the 1st time since late February, I believe this country can reopen safely but not without strict mask wearing. And that is just what the economic pace of the reopening is going to come down to. To my readers I'm just stating the obvious but I felt the need to say it again. Yes, we need a vaccine and effective therapeutics …
Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 6/19
Positives 1)The June Philly manufacturing index jumped to 27.5 from -43.1 and that was well better than the forecast of -21.4. As for the 6 month outlook, it rose to 66.3 from 49.7 as optimism grows with the reopening. Capital spending plans also improved. 2)The June NY manufacturing index was well better than expectations at -.2 vs the forecast of -29.6 …
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Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.