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January 15, 2021 By Peter Boockvar

Borrow, spend and fair share

What we heard last night was borrow, spend and fair share. With the latter otherwise known as higher taxes. Tha latter is not a surprise as we were told by the Biden side that it was coming but it is still a drag on growth however which way one wants to rationalize it. The borrow part has proven a legacy that lasts forever and the spend is fleeting as it eventually …

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January 14, 2021 By Peter Boockvar

Trout, Gretzky, now Mantle

Last month I highlighted the $1.3mm auction price sale of Wayne Gretzky’s rookie card as growing evidence for the desire for ‘hard assets’ (yes, it’s cardboard), along as we see with bitcoin, metals, etc… Today I see that a PSA 9 (10 is gem mint) 1952 Mickey Mantle Topps card was just sold for $5.2mm (h/t JB). The same card went for $2.8mm in 2018 and $283k in …

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January 14, 2021 By Peter Boockvar

Claims/Import prices

Initial jobless claims totaled 965k, well above the estimate of 789k and up from 784k last week. Initial claims for PUA rebounded to 284k from 161k last week and vs 310k in the week before. I can only guess that with the extended and expanded benefit payments with the passage of the recent $900b spending bill, many took advantage of it. When the federal government …

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January 14, 2021 By Peter Boockvar

Sentiment/China data and its voracious appetite for commodities

Investors Intelligence yesterday said Bulls rose to 63.7 from 60.2 and continues its run of 60+ prints. Bears fell to 16.7 from 17.5 and that 47 pt spread remains extreme. The AAII data is in error as it lists Bulls as being 100% which would be quite extraordinary if true, //www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey? but it's a mistake. Bottom line, we know sentiment is very …

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January 13, 2021 By Peter Boockvar

Beige Book comments on inflation and wages

On my belief that the direction of inflation might be the most important factor in determining where the prices of stocks and bonds go from here, I include comments on prices and wages in the just released Beige Book. I want to add that inflation/deflation is a process, not an event and that either direction takes time to unfold. While price pressures are …

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January 13, 2021 By Peter Boockvar

Another good auction

The 30 yr bond auction was very good too after the solid 10 yr yesterday. The yield of 1.825% was about 1.5 bps below the when issued. The bid to cover of 2.47 is above the 12 month average of 2.36. And, direct and indirect bidders bought 86% of the offering, above the one year average of 79%. Bottom line, the highest yield since late February brought out the …

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January 13, 2021 By Peter Boockvar

Consumer price data

Headline CPI in December rose .4% m/o/m and the core rate was higher by .1% m/o/m. Both are exactly in line with expectations. The headline rate is now up 1.4% y/o/y and 1.6% ex food and energy. The core rate is unchanged with November and the headline increase compares with 1.2% in November. The rise in energy prices is beginning to show up in the data as they rose …

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January 13, 2021 By Peter Boockvar

Commodity prices and bond yields

I'm going to mention commodities again ahead of the December CPI report at 8:30am est. The CRB raw industrials index yesterday rose for the 12th day in 13 and is just a hair below the highest level since August 2014. Also, if you didn't see the move in ag the past few days, corn rallied 5.1% yesterday after crop data was released and showed a 7 yr low in inventories …

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January 12, 2021 By Peter Boockvar

10 yr auction very good/Inflation comments

With an incredible 26 bps rise in 6 trading days, the 10 yr note auction was very good as the higher yield likely brought out some buyers. The yield of 1.164% was almost 1 bp below the when issued. The bid to cover of 2.47 was a touch above the one year average of 2.44. Also, direct and indirect bidders took down 80% of the auction, higher than the 12 month average of …

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January 12, 2021 By Peter Boockvar

When does rise in rates matter?

I've gotten a lot of questions over the past few weeks asking at what point does the rise in long rates matter (a lot of other questions on Bitcoin). When do they matter for stocks that have been inflated by very low rates and when do they matter for the Fed that would get them to react? As for the former, I'm not sure at what magic level multiples start to compress …

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Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.

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