Positives 1) In November, the US trade deficit fell to $49.3b from $55.7b in October. That’s well below the estimate of $54b but was mostly due to a 2.9% drop in imports to the lowest since June as exports fell .6%. While this will boost Q4 GDP, it’s not for the right reasons and instead is just the math. Reflecting the slowdown in key economies and regions …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 2/8
Continuing the string of softer data overseas, the Markit Hong Kong January PMI was 48.2, little changed from 48 in December. It marks the 10th straight month below 50. Markit equates this level with just 1.5% GDP growth. They said "Given flagging Chinese demand, the outlook for Hong Kong's private sector continues to darken. Business sentiment remained negative, as …
After the holiday distorted initial claims data over the past few weeks where smoothing it out averaged 227k, claims for the week ended Feb 2nd was 234k, 13k more than expected. The government shutdown does not impact this data directly as claims here are state filings. It would only matter if private contractors saw some layoffs which likely happened to some degree. …
As seen in the II number yesterday and the rise in positive sentiment in the CNN Fear/Greed index, today's AAII index of stock sentiment for individuals got more bullish. Bulls rose 8.1 pts to 39.9 and that is the most since November 8th. Bears were down by 9 pts to 22.8 and that's the least since June. Bottom line, from a contrarian standpoint this figure along with …
[Read more...] about Bears disappear/More weak data overseas
After a mixed 3 yr note auction yesterday, today’s benchmark 10 yr auction was weak. The yield of 2.689% tailed above the when issued yield by about 1 bp. The bid to cover of 2.35 is below the one year average of 2.50 and that matches the lowest demand since February 2018. Direct and indirect bidders took a combined 72% of the auction, about in line with the 12 month …
What is now old data is continuing to drip out. In November, the trade deficit fell to $49.3b from $55.7b in October. That’s well below the estimate of $54b but was mostly due to a 2.9% drop in imports to the lowest since June as exports fell .6%. While this will boost Q4 GDP, it’s not for the right reasons and instead is just the math. Reflecting the slowdown in …
The stock market is certainly at a key spot, just 4 pts from its 200 day moving average (yellow line) and with the 14 day RSI at the highest level since mid September (just below the red line). In terms of sentiment, II said Bulls are getting close to 50 again at 48.6 from 45.8 last week. Bears were unchanged at just 20.6. While Bulls are still below 50, typically a …
The January ISM services index fell to 56.7 from a revised 58 last month (from 57.6). The estimate was 57.1 and this level does match the lowest since December 2017. New orders dropped 5 pts to the least also since December 2017. Backlogs rose 2 pts to 52.5 but after falling 5 pts in December. Employment was up 1.2 pts after dropping by 1.4 pts in the month prior. …
The revised January services PMI for the Eurozone was lifted to 51.2 from the first print of 50.8 and that puts it unchanged with December. That though is a 49 month low with France and Italy "the primary sources of weakness, with both countries registering declines in activity during January." Business improved in both Germany and Spain. The combined manufacturing …
This is not a survey I had seen before but it adds to the mixed messages we are getting from the data. The WSJ survey of small businesses index fell to the lowest level since the presidential election. "Just 14% of firms expect the economy to improve this year, while 36% expect it to get worse." The lone caveat was that this survey was done right before the government …
[Read more...] about Clear messages overseas, still mixed in the US
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.
