Positives 1)All 50 states have at least something reopened, even NJ and NY. 2)This is still a really poor number but better than what was seen in April (anything is). The May Markit manufacturing and services PMI bounced to 36.4 from 27 with most of the gain coming from the services sector which rose to 36.9 from 26.7. Manufacturing improved by 3.7 pts to …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 5/22
China telling Hong Kong what national security rules are best for them is not going over well in Hong Kong as it shouldn't. Premier Li said "We will establish sound legal systems and enforcement mechanisms for safeguarding national security in the two special administrative regions, and see that the governments of the two regions fulfill their constitutional …
[Read more...] about I don’t have much but still important stuff
The Markit May manufacturing and services PMI bounced to 36.4 from 27 with most of the gain coming from the services sector which rose to 36.9 from 26.7. Manufacturing improved by 3.7 pts to 39.8. Keep in mind with all this that 50 is the breakeven between expansion and contraction. The bottom line is as we know. Things are improving as we reopen but there is still …
Initial jobless claims totaled 2.44mm, about as expected and down from 2.688mm last week (revised from 2.98mm). It's the 7th week in a row of moderation, although remains alarming high. Reflecting this concern is the 25mm of continuing claims. The hope of course with all of these numbers is that as things reopen and extra benefits expire on July 31st (assuming they …
There was nothing new in the minutes yesterday from the FOMC meeting from 3 weeks prior but there was a discussion on forward guidance. With forward guidance basically telling the markets that they won't raise rates until certainly employment and inflation hurdles are met, the Fed's thinking is no one has to worry about higher rates for a while. If the words don't …
You don't need central bank induced negative rates to have negative rates. The UK sold 3 yr gilts totaling 3.75b pounds at a yield of .003%. Now we can call that a 'technical' difference and that it is still essentially zero. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey does speak today and I do expect him again to downplay the implementation of negative rates. After the experience …
[Read more...] about Enough with the NIRP debate/Inflation/Sentiment/Housing
Housing starts in April totaled 891k, about as expected but due to the obvious that is a moderation from the 1.28mm pace in March. Underneath the hood, single family starts slowed to 650k from 871k in March and over 1mm in February. Multi family starts totaled just 241k vs 405k in March and 533k in February. There was of course a mix of forced shutdowns of …
At 10am est we'll hear again from Fed Chair Jay Powell in his virtual testimony in front of the Senate and he will repeat what he said on 60 Minutes with respect to "We're not out of ammunition by a long shot." No central banker EVER will say otherwise keep in mind. His prepared text, released yesterday, says "We are committed to using our full range of tools to …
[Read more...] about The tools are there we’re told but do we really want to see them all?
The May NAHB home builder sentiment index improved by 7 pts m/o/m to 37 and that was 2 pts above the estimate but still about half the 72 print in March. Present Conditions rose 6 pts to 42 from April and compares with 79 in March. Future Expectations were up by 10 pts m/o/m to 46 and compares with 75 in March. Prospective Buyers Traffic rose to 21 from 13 and vs 56 …
The reflation trade is on today on further hopes of a better global economy as things reopen and covid counts continue to decline. WTI is back above $30, copper is higher by 2.2%, silver is up for a 3rd straight day, up 3.6% today and up 13% over the 3 days. Aluminum, nickel and zinc are each up around 1% and gold is higher by almost the same amount. Platinum is …
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.
