/ Central Banks So I guess August 25th won’t be a big deal after all. Reuters is reporting that “ECB President Mario Draghi will not deliver a new policy message at the US Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole conference, two sources familiar with the situation said, tempering expectations for the bank to start charting the course out of stimulus.” The reason …
[Read more...] about Jackson Hole Lotta Nothing / Fed Minutes / Mortgage Apps
The August NAHB home builder survey rose 4 pts m/o/m to 68 and better than the estimate of no change. Present conditions rose by 4 pts while the Outlook was up by 5. Prospective Buyers Traffic though was up by just 1 pt and is still below 50 at 49. Notwithstanding this last important component, the NAHB said “Our members are encouraged by rising demand in the new home …
[Read more...] about Builder sentiment/inventories (old news)
United States Core retail sales (ex auto’s, gasoline and building materials) in July rose .6% m/o/m, two tenths more than expected and also off a higher than expected base as June was revised up by 2 tenths. Auto sales/parts were up by 1.2% m/o/m, higher for a 4th straight month and up 5.5% y/o/y. As July auto sales were reported down 6% y/o/y a few weeks ago, I have …
[Read more...] about Sales, mfr’g and import inflation (or lack thereof)
Asia Aggregate financing in China in July totaled 1.22T yuan, 220b more than expected but down from 1.77T yuan in June. Of this, 825b were official bank loans (down from 1.54T m/o/m) with the balance coming from the non bank side that Chinese officials are trying so hard to corral. Part of this was a rebound in corporate bond issuance. They are having some success …
[Read more...] about China credit/German GDP/UK CPI/Hampster wheel of monetary policy
I recently sat down with Yra Harris over at FRA for a podcast where we discussed Quantitative Tightening and more. Listen here: Topics Include (Full transcript available here): • The relationship between Quantitative Tightening (QT) and steepening bond yield curves • Possible volatility moves in the European bond curve if the European Central Bank …
Quantitative Tightening If you had doubts about whether the Fed would begin quantitative tightening in September because of the recent inflation figures, NY Fed President Bill Dudley, a key member of the troika, is telling you AGAIN that it’s coming. He said “I think we’re still on the same trajectory we’ve been on for several years. Above trend growth, gradually …
[Read more...] about Dudley is reminding us again of what’s most likely to come
Asia Let’s attribute the global equity market rally (and bond and gold selloff and dollar rally) to a modestly toned down situation with North Korea at least for a day. The weird market action took place in Japan where a better than expected Q2 GDP figure led to a 1% fall in the Nikkei and a selloff in the yen. So the yen rallies on the possibility of nuclear war but …
[Read more...] about Japan, China data / Euro positioning / Equity selectivity
In case you missed it, the latest update to my investment ideas is here (members only). Positives Consumer prices rose .1% m/o/m at both the headline and core levels in July. That was one tenth less than expected for each. Versus last year, prices were up by 1.7% for both and that was up from 1.6% for the headline last month and unchanged at the core. …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 8/11
CPI Consumer prices rose .1% m/o/m at both the headline and core levels in July. That was one tenth less than expected for each. Versus last year, prices were up by 1.7% for both and that was up from 1.6% for the headline and unchanged at the core. Services ex energy was up by .2% for a 3rd straight month and up by 2.4% y/o/y but this trended 3%+ for a few years …
United States Death, taxes and gravity. Here are some technical spots to keep in mind that developed as of yesterday’s close. The Value Line geometric equal weighted index of 1700 stocks that I like to watch as a broad cross section of the market closed 1% below its 200 day moving average. This index is now up just .8% year to date. The Transportation index closed …
Peter is the Chief Market Analyst with The Lindsey Group. He is Co-CIO at Bookmark Advisors, a member of the Advisory Services Network and a regular CNBC Contributor.
