The US November manufacturing and services PMI fell deeper under 50 at 46.3 from 48.2 in October and is the 5th straight month in contraction with manufacturing now falling for the first time in this post covid rebound. Services dropped to 46.1 from 47.8 while manufacturing declined to 47.6 from 50.4. With services, S&P Global said "Panelists often stated …
[Read more...] about In contraction for a 5th month/Incentives drive home sales/Consumer confidence
Initial jobless claims jumped to 240k, 15k more than expected and the highest print since mid August. This is up from 223k last week and brings the 4 week average to 227k from 221k and that is the most since early September. Continuing claims rose to 1.551mm and that is the most since early March and up 48k w/o/w. Bottom line, while most the reported job cuts have …
Have a great Thanksgiving, //www.youtube.com/watch?v=XhvgqSyWZA0 As we've been bombarded with Fed heads over the past 3 weeks since the last FOMC meeting, I doubt we'll read anything new in the laundered minutes that will be released today at 2pm est. Here were some important quotes I gleaned from the retail earnings calls …
The 7 yr note auction was pretty poor. The yield of 3.89% was about 3 bps above the when issued pricing just prior. The bid to cover of 2.33 was below the one yr average of 2.47 and the lowest since December 2021. And, dealers got stuck with 21.4% of the auction, the most since July 2021. This auction follows the really bad 10 yr and very good 30 yr seen a few weeks …
An economic slowdown in response to higher interest rates is not one event, it is a progression of events that take time to play out. The most immediate impact is always on the two biggest sectors directly impacted, like housing and autos but it takes time to metastasize to other parts of the economy. Much depends on how sensitive one is to the rising cost of capital …
[Read more...] about “Higher Rates Squeeze Small Businesses”
Much of the Fed speak we heard last week was really nothing new in terms of revealing any special insight that we don't already know. They will hike by the slower pace of 50 bps in December to 4.25-4.5% and maybe, just maybe, we'll get a few more 25 bps after that in 2023. Thus, as we're likely coming to the end of this I believe it is what happens next …
[Read more...] about What happens after the rate hikes?/ECB breathes sigh of relief
Positives 1)Initial jobless claims fell to 222k from 226k last week and that is 6k under the estimate. The 4 week average though rose 2k to 221k. 2)Core retail sales were better than expected in October by 4 tenths with its 7 tenths gain and September was revised up by 2 tenths to a rise of .6%. The y/o/y gain was 6.5%. 3)In Realtor.com’s report on October …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 11/18
Existing home sales in October totaled 4.43mm, a touch above expectations but down from 4.71mm in September and the lowest print since December 2011 if we take out the covid plunge. Assume many of these contracts were signed over the summer when mortgage rates were between 5.5-6% compared to just under 7% now. The median home price gain moderated to ‘just’ 6.6%, the …
Wednesday night the September Treasury capital flow data came out and there was another month of huge buying of US notes and bonds but again a lot of it came from the Caribbean and thru the UK banks (which means it could be anyone) while central banks were net sellers again. A net $60.4b of notes and bonds were purchased bringing the year to date amount to …
[Read more...] about TIC data/Retail comments/Japanese inflation
I forgot to mention the stock market sentiment data and it was worth taking note of. Today’s AAII data revealed that Bulls rose to 33.50, the most since the last week of December 2021. They rose 8.4 pts w/o/w and have doubled off the late September lows. Bears fell 6.8 pts to 40.2 and while that is off the above 60 level seen in late September, it still is above the …
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor. Each day The Boock Report provides summaries and commentary on the macro data and news that matter, with analysis of what it all means and how it fits together.
