In May, S&P CoreLogic said home prices rose 19.8% y/o/y, a painful print for that first time buyer on top of the sharp rise in mortgage rates but we can assume the peak in the rate of change is here with the only question as to how quick and by how much home price gains slow from here. More than 30% price increases were seen in Tampa, Miami and Dallas. The price …
[Read more...] about Housing/Consumer Confidence/Manufacturing
The 2s/10s inversion, on the heels of the Walmart news that followed AT&T and Verizon telling us that some customers are delaying repaying their cell phone bills and stories abound of shoppers trading down to private label from brands, is now deeper than what was seen in 2006-2007 at 24 bps. That was last seen in September 2000 when the fed funds rate was at …
[Read more...] about Further inversion/A bunch of anecdotes/Nat gas
"Dear Mister Fantasy play us a tune, something to make us all happy. Do anything, take us out of this gloom. Sing a song, play guitar, make it snappy. You are the one who can make us all laugh but doing that you break out in tears. Please don't be sad if it was the straight mind you had. We wouldn't have known you all these years." These lyrics by Steve …
Positives 1)Within the PMI's today in the US, Europe and Asia, price pressures are moderating. 2)The ECB ended negative interest rate policy, finally. 3)Putin turned back on Nord Stream 1, although natural gas prices were unchanged on the week. 4)Multi family starts in June totaled 577k vs 523k in May, 632k in April and 525k in March. Multi family …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 7/22
The US July Markit PMI is now reflecting recession because of the 5.7 pt m/o/m decline in services to 47 while manufacturing was down a touch to 52.3. The composite index stands at 47.5 from 52.3 in June and that's the first time it's below 50 since June 2020. On services while new business got back above 50, "the marginal upturn in client demand was much softer …
[Read more...] about At least on this metric, a recession is here
Here are some notable quotables from earnings press releases and/or conference calls yesterday: AT&T: "Last quarter, I shared that we're seeing inflationary pressures, and we estimate those to be more than $1 billion above the elevated cost expectations embedded into our outlook...On the consumer side of our business, we're seeing an increase in bad debt to …
[Read more...] about Notable quotables/Eurozone now contracting
Firstly, the ECB did the right thing in raising rates by 50 bps back to a still embarrassing level of zero with inflation above 8% but with growth slowing notably. It’s the first time since 2014 that it’s not in negative territory and expect a plus sign in front of rates in September. They also gave details on their Italian bailout plan, I mean their anti …
[Read more...] about Back to zero/Claims up again/Philly mfr’g negative
When an economy shifts to one of slowing activity from growth it all doesn't happen at once but because of that there are always confusing signals being sent as different industries experience different time frames with this pivot. We know housing is clearly slowing and subprime delinquencies for auto's are rising (stated again by auto retailer Lithia this week). We …
[Read more...] about Economic thoughts/Some gas relief/Kuroda remains ‘tenacious’/Other
Existing home sales in June fell to 5.12mm annualized, about 200k below expectations, down from 5.41mm in May and the least since June 2020. Assume many of these closings saw contracts signed over the prior 3-5 months when mortgage rates rose from about 3.35% to about 5.50% (and then touched 6% in June). Regionally, most of the decline came from homes sold in the …
As Nord Stream will likely be turned back on but uncertain as to what extent, the Dutch TTF natural gas price is up 5% to 162 after falling by 3% yesterday when it was said it would pipe some gas again hopefully starting tomorrow. This equates to about $52 per mmBTU vs the US price today at $7.30. The euro is down a touch after 3 days of gains and European bourses …
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor. Each day The Boock Report provides summaries and commentary on the macro data and news that matter, with analysis of what it all means and how it fits together.
