Positives 1)//twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1260946980710350855 2)The preliminary May UoM consumer confidence index rose to 73.7 from 71.8 and that was above the estimate of 68. The swing factor on the rise was the Current Conditions component which jumped to 83 from 74.3 after falling by 29.4 pts in April. The Expectations component fell by 2.4 pts …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 5/15
The preliminary May UoM consumer confidence index rose to 73.7 from 71.8 and that was above the estimate of 68. The swing factor on the rise was the Current Conditions component which jumped to 83 from 74.3 after falling by 29.4 pts in April. The Expectations component fell by 2.4 pts m/o/m to 67.7 and which was 92.1 back in February. Likely thanks to rising food …
Retail sales in April taking out auto's, gasoline and building materials (leaving us with the 'control group') fell by 15.3% m/o/m, three times the estimate. Online retail sales rose 8.4% m/o/m and 21.2% y/o/y. Everything else was awful but that's what you get when things are closed. What happens from here as stores/restaurants gradually reopen in the coming months is …
We're going to get a slew of economic data today including retail sales and industrial production in April and the May NY manufacturing index and the UoM consumer confidence figure. We'll also see job openings and business inventories but that's for March. I'll go out on a limb here and predict they'll all be bad. But again, it's irrelevant as we did this to …
Initial jobless claims were 2.98mm, about 500k above expectations but continues the moderation in the pace of increase since the peak in late March. The numbers though are still alarming of course but with more reopenings occurring in the coming months they should continue to recede. Continuing claims though will remain high as the pace of rehiring's will be gradual …
That extreme bearish read in last week's AAII individual investor sentiment read did moderate only slightly this week. Bears fell 2.1 pts to 50.6 off the highest level since 2013 when the taper tantrum rattled investors. Bulls were little changed at 23.3 from 23.7 last week and which was the lowest since October. With respect to other sentiment reads I unfortunately …
Powell was asked about his opinion on negative rates and I believe I'm close here on the quotes as I typed as fast as I could as he answered. "This is not something we are looking at." He repeated that ALL committee members in previous minutes said NIRP should not be used. "We think we have a good tool kit... and that is what we'll be using... effectiveness is …
Producer prices fell much more than expected m/o/m in April. The headline figure was lower by 1.3% vs the estimate of down .5%. The core rate was down by .3% vs the estimate of -.1% but also taking out trade saw a price drop of .9% vs the forecast of down .1%. On a y/o/y basis the headline figure is down by 1.2% while core is still up by .6%. Energy drove the …
Ahead of the Jay Powell speech today, Loretta Mester joins Fed President's Bostic, Evans and Bullard in expressing their belief that negative rates is not a good idea. She spoke last night and said "I still am not thinking that would be a go-to tool for me...I think the effects on the banking system and on money market funds would make me not want to use that as a …
[Read more...] about NIRP/Getting in is easy, getting out is much harder
The 10 yr note auction was solid. The yield of .70% was below the when issued of more than 1 bps above. The bid to cover of 2.69, well more than the 12 month average of 2.41. And, the level of direct and indirect bidders was the most since April 2019 leaving the dealers with the least since then. Bottom line, it's a new world where a yield of .70% brings out the …
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.
