Here is what Intel said last night on the all important issue of semi chip supply, "While I expect the shortages to bottom out in the second half, it will take another one to two years before the industry is able to completely catch up with demand." While semi supply constraints will be temporary, two years of temporary will still be challenging for many. And I'll …
[Read more...] about More economic anecdotes/Another EM rate hike
Existing home sales in June, likely reflecting mostly contracts signed in March, April and May totaled 5.86mm, just under the estimate of 5.9mm and vs 5.78mm in May (revised from 5.8mm). The median home price rose 23.4% y/o/y but assume that in the aggregate it is more like 15%, still an astonishing number and the author of the tent cities we are seeing a growing …
Initial jobless claims jumped to 419k from 368k and that was well above the estimate of 350k. While the low 300k’s is where claims were in the mid 2000’s expansion (vs low to mid 200k’s in the mid 2010’s), this begs the question that with 9.2mm job openings why are claims not falling faster. While the trajectory is down, it’s a fair debate. I can only speculate here …
Here are some inflation anecdotes from some earnings calls this week: Coke: “The pandemic has put pressure on supply chains around the world, be it the commodities input or the transportation costs around the world. In 2022 there are more pressures coming at us, and we are working closely with our bottling partners to mitigate some of those pressures. It’s …
Is bipolar the best way to describe the stock market the past two days? Likely as should we be concerned with Delta or not. I happen to think we power thru it because we have no choice as life is not stopping again, we have to live with it, and we have weapons to fight it with effective vaccines and defenses for those who choose to use it in the form of masks. Also, …
Housing starts in June totaled 1.643mm, 53k more than anticipated, partially offset by a 26k unit downward revision to May to 1.546mm. Breaking it down, single family starts made up 1.16mm of this which is just above the 6 month average of 1.13mm. Multi family starts were 483k and which compares with the 6 month average of 454k. Single family permits was where …
As we watch another very exciting space launch from Blue Origin weeks after Branson’s flight, this has such an amazing historical similarity in my opinion to the skyscraper race in the late 1920’s between Walter Chrysler and Pierre Du Pont with the Chrysler Building and the Empire State Building and which one would be taller. Today we are trying to get higher into the …
The July NAHB home builder index fell 1 pt to 80. The estimate was for no change. While Present Conditions fell 1 pt, the Outlook rose 2 pts with maybe the drop in lumber prices helping the mood. The negative within the report was the 6 pt drop in Prospective Buyers Traffic which now sits at 65, the lowest since last August. I assume that higher prices for some …
[Read more...] about Builder survey/Can Delta speed pace to herd immunity?
With freedom day in the UK today, along with other highly vaccinated countries including the US, these nations are going to have to prove to the world that life can/must go on regardless of the variant (Lambda will soon follow Delta in making headlines) and it will be considered another flu like virus that remains with us. Fortunately, the vaccination rates around the …
Positives 1)Core retail sales were as expected in June when we include the downward revision to May. June sales were 7 tenths more than expected but May was revised down by the same 7 tenths. In dollars, core retail sales were $341.5b in June vs $342.7 in April and vs $344.1b in March when the stimulus checks were mailed. 2)Those filing under pandemic …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 7/16
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.
