On the ECB Oli Rehn comments that the ECB is coming with big guns in September (even though they’ll have blanks), European yields are collapsing further and thus taking its financial system with it. The German 10 yr yield is now -.70% and the 30 yr yield is falling 7 bps to -.26%. German insurance companies are loving this! The Spanish 10 yr is approaching zero at …
IP and Housing, and a comment on mfr’g
Before I get to the IP data for July and the NAHB figure for August I just want to say this about the August manufacturing data we saw this morning from the NY and Philly Fed’s. With the consumer product tariff tweet on August 1st, we have to assume it left everyone scrambling to procure products as quickly as possible ahead of implementation. Not that one month would …
Some data
Reflecting still that the US consumer is what's keeping the US economy together, July retail sales at the core level (ex auto's, gasoline and building materials), rose 1% m/o/m, 6 tenths more than expected and comes after a .7% gain in June. Sales gains were driven by online retailing, likely goosed by Amazon's prime day which lifted sales up by 2.8% m/o/m and 19% …
Tariffs/Data/Sentiment/US Housing
It was good to see some economic sense reverse the really bad idea of taxing incoming consumer goods just a few months before the holiday shopping season. If only everything can now be reversed because I've seen estimates that about $110b of consumer goods will still be subject to the 10% tariff rate. Hopefully the administration is finally realizing the limits of …
Now goods inflation?
There is no inflation? If one looks just at the PCE I guess. CPI for July rose .3% m/o/m both headline and core. The headline figure was as expected while the core rate was one tenth more. Versus last year the headline number rose 1.8% y/o/y and the core rate was higher by 2.2%. That core rate matches the most since July 2018. Services inflation ex energy, a …
A bunch of things
I listened to parts of Carrie Lam's press conference last night and to the most important question asked, she just wouldn't answer. I'm paraphrasing, "Why don't you just officially get rid of the extradition bill and are you doing the bidding of Beijing?" Until she does officially kill it, this will go on but I'm still of the belief that the protests die down on their …
Argentina peso
The Argentinian peso is crashing by around 20%. The Merval stock index is opening soon. …
Hong Kong/China/European banks/Argentina
For each day the Hong Kong protests continue the obvious worry is that the Chinese PLA walks into Hong Kong and then we have a mess on our hands. I'm going to guess instead that at least for a while, the Chinese will rely on covert activities and nothing more. Also, I'm going to venture a guess that officials both in Hong Kong and China are hopeful that when kids …
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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 8/9
Positives 1)Initial jobless claims totaled 209k, 6k less than expected and down from 217k last week (revised up by 2k). This brings the 4 week average to 212k which is unchanged with the week prior because a print of 208k dropped out. Continuing claims, delayed by a week, fell by 15k after rising by 22k last week. 2)Refi's continue to be the only notable …
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Claims remain low
Initial jobless claims totaled 209k, 6k less than expected and down from 217k last week (revised up by 2k). This brings the 4 week average to 212k which is unchanged with the week prior because a print of 208k dropped out. Continuing claims, delayed by a week, fell by 15k after rising by 22k last week. Bottom line, with all the worries about economic growth, …
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.