The March ISM manufacturing index rose to 64.7 from 60.8 and that was above the estimate of 61.5 and the highest since 1983. New orders rose 3.2 pts m/o/m to 68 while backlogs were up a similar amount to 67.5. Inventories got back above 50 at 50.8 but Customer Inventories are getting even slimmer at 29.9 likely now in response to all the supply problems we know is …
Claims data
Initial jobless claims totaled 719k, 44k more than expected but partially mitigated by the downward revision of 26k last week to 658k. The 4 week average fell by 10k to 719k. Those filing for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) fell by 4k to 237k. Delayed by a week, those still receiving claims fell by 46k to 3.79mm. Delayed by two weeks, those continuing to …
Some thoughts
I'm only going to say a few things about the Biden plan because I don't want to get deep into the politics of it. With $2 Trillion spent being spread out over 8 years and this spending being called 'investment' (code word for more government spending), why can't we just borrow the $250b per year since this 'investment' is supposed to give us back a return? Considering …
Chicago PMI/KMB comments/Home sales
Ahead of tomorrow’s ISM manufacturing index, the last regional one was just released. The Chicago PMI rose to 66.3 from 59.5 and that was 5.3 pts above expectations. New orders and production (fulfilling previous new orders) rose but backlogs fell. Inventories increased by 5.1 pts and are above 50 for the 3rd straight month, “mainly driven by supply chain issues.” …
ADP jobs report
According to ADP, the private sector added 517k jobs in March, below the estimate of 550k but February was revised up by 59k to 176k. The job contribution was evenly spaced among small, medium and large businesses. The service side as usual led the way with 437k added jobs driven, not surprisingly, by leisure/hospitality which was 169k of this vs 51k in each of the …
Rents/Deliveroo/Some data
A key factor in the direction of the inflation stats of CPI and PCE in coming quarters will be rents where within CPI it is 32% of headline CPI and about 40% of core. Rents in PCE is about half that. We know home prices are rising double digits but the Fed ignores that because it's not directly imbedded in those inflation reads. Well, here are some comments from the …
Confidence jumps
Three million shots a day and the ever widening path out of Covid, further reopenings, the warmer weather and another round of government checks saw the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence index jump by almost 20 pts m/o/m to 109.7 from 90.4. Both components were up solidly. For perspective, the 109.7 print is about the exact middle of the February 2020 high …
Global yields
The selloff in global bonds that is seeing US long rates go to new recent highs started in Asia with yields jumping by 9 bps in Australia in their 10 yr to 1.78%. New Zealand and South Korea saw similar moves. The Japanese 10 yr JGB yield was higher by 1.6 bps to .09% and the 40 yr was up by 2 bps to .71%. European yields are higher by 4-8 bps across the board. The …
Dallas mfr’g, the pros & cons
Recovering from the weather shock in February, along with the previous factors of the need for inventory rebuilding that is getting clogged up with logistical issues and raw materials, in addition to getting prepared for further reopenings, the Dallas manufacturing index in March rose to 28.9 from 17.2 and well better than the estimate of 16.8. New orders, …
I don’t have much today
It's pretty quiet today ahead of a big week of economic data and an expected announcement from Biden & Co. of ever more government spending and now with massive tax increases. You can be sure the spending with have a multiplier less than zero and tax increases are always an economic drag with the extent the only difference. As for the hype around infrastructure, …
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.