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July 26, 2022 By Peter Boockvar

Housing/Consumer Confidence/Manufacturing

In May, S&P CoreLogic said home prices rose 19.8% y/o/y, a painful print for that first time buyer on top of the sharp rise in mortgage rates but we can assume the peak in the rate of change is here with the only question as to how quick and by how much home price gains slow from here. More than 30% price increases were seen in Tampa, Miami and Dallas. The price …

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July 26, 2022 By Peter Boockvar

Further inversion/A bunch of anecdotes/Nat gas

The 2s/10s inversion, on the heels of the Walmart news that followed AT&T and Verizon telling us that some customers are delaying repaying their cell phone bills and stories abound of shoppers trading down to private label from brands, is now deeper than what was seen in 2006-2007 at 24 bps. That was last seen in September 2000 when the fed funds rate was at …

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July 25, 2022 By Peter Boockvar

‘Dear Mr. Fantasy’

"Dear Mister Fantasy play us a tune, something to make us all happy. Do anything, take us out of this gloom. Sing a song, play guitar, make it snappy. You are the one who can make us all laugh but doing that you break out in tears. Please don't be sad if it was the straight mind you had. We wouldn't have known you all these years."  These lyrics by Steve …

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July 22, 2022 By Peter Boockvar

Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 7/22

Positives 1)Within the PMI's today in the US, Europe and Asia, price pressures are moderating.  2)The ECB ended negative interest rate policy, finally. 3)Putin turned back on Nord Stream 1, although natural gas prices were unchanged on the week.   4)Multi family starts in June totaled 577k vs 523k in May, 632k in April and 525k in March. Multi family …

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July 22, 2022 By Peter Boockvar

At least on this metric, a recession is here

The US July Markit PMI is now reflecting recession because of the 5.7 pt m/o/m decline in services to 47 while manufacturing was down a touch to 52.3. The composite index stands at 47.5 from 52.3 in June and that's the first time it's below 50 since June 2020. On services while new business got back above 50, "the marginal upturn in client demand was much softer …

[Read more...] about At least on this metric, a recession is here

July 22, 2022 By Peter Boockvar

Notable quotables/Eurozone now contracting

Here are some notable quotables from earnings press releases and/or conference calls yesterday: AT&T: "Last quarter, I shared that we're seeing inflationary pressures, and we estimate those to be more than $1 billion above the elevated cost expectations embedded into our outlook...On the consumer side of our business, we're seeing an increase in bad debt to …

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July 21, 2022 By Peter Boockvar

Back to zero/Claims up again/Philly mfr’g negative

Firstly, the ECB did the right thing in raising rates by 50 bps back to a still embarrassing level of zero with inflation above 8% but with growth slowing notably. It’s the first time since 2014 that it’s not in negative territory and expect a plus sign in front of rates in September. They also gave details on their Italian bailout plan, I mean their anti …

[Read more...] about Back to zero/Claims up again/Philly mfr’g negative

July 21, 2022 By Peter Boockvar

Economic thoughts/Some gas relief/Kuroda remains ‘tenacious’/Other

When an economy shifts to one of slowing activity from growth it all doesn't happen at once but because of that there are always confusing signals being sent as different industries experience different time frames with this pivot. We know housing is clearly slowing and subprime delinquencies for auto's are rising (stated again by auto retailer Lithia this week). We …

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July 20, 2022 By Peter Boockvar

Housing and its GDP contribution

Existing home sales in June fell to 5.12mm annualized, about 200k below expectations, down from 5.41mm in May and the least since June 2020. Assume many of these closings saw contracts signed over the prior 3-5 months when mortgage rates rose from about 3.35% to about 5.50% (and then touched 6% in June). Regionally, most of the decline came from homes sold in the …

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July 20, 2022 By Peter Boockvar

Good morning

As Nord Stream will likely be turned back on but uncertain as to what extent, the Dutch TTF natural gas price is up 5% to 162 after falling by 3% yesterday when it was said it would pipe some gas again hopefully starting tomorrow. This equates to about $52 per mmBTU vs the US price today at $7.30. The euro is down a touch after 3 days of gains and European bourses …

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About Peter

Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor. Each day The Boock Report provides summaries and commentary on the macro data and news that matter, with analysis of what it all means and how it fits together.

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Disclaimer - Peter Boockvar is an independent economist and market strategist. The Boock Report is independently produced by Peter Boockvar. Peter Boockvar is also the Chief Investment Officer of Bleakley Financial Group, LLC a Registered Investment Adviser. The Boock Report and Bleakley Financial Group, LLC are separate entities. Content contained in The Boock Report newsletters should not be construed as investment advice offered by Bleakley Financial Group, LLC or Peter Boockvar. This market commentary is for informational purposes only and is not meant to constitute a recommendation of any particular investment, security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy. The views expressed in this commentary should not be taken as advice to buy, sell or hold any security. To the extent any of the content published as part of this commentary may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person. No chart, graph, or other figure provided should be used to determine which securities to buy or sell. Consult your advisor about what is best for you.

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