Job openings in January totaled 10.82mm, almost 300k above the estimate but down from 11.23mm in December. Hiring’s rose by 121k from December and the hiring rate was 4.1% vs 4% in December and 4.1% in November. The number of quits fell and the quit rate fell to 2.5% which is the lowest since February 2021. Well, at least in the most interest rate sensitive part of …
[Read more...] about JOLTS, job openings plunge in construction and other real estate
ADP said 242k private sector jobs were added in February following 119k in January. While that was above the estimate of 200k, the January figure was of course quite different than what the BLS told us. Of note, small businesses shed jobs, totaling 61k but was offset by the rise in hiring by medium and large companies. For a local restaurant or small business to …
While Jay Powell continues to feed the rates market more gummies, not appreciating the time delay feature, nor the shock of a vertical rise in rates in just one year and that positive real rates for a while will itself be a continued form of monetary tightening, the Bank of Canada is expected to sit on its hands today, keeping its overnight rate at 4.5%. Swait Dhingra …
[Read more...] about Powell and rates, overseas dissent/Some data points/Mexico
After taking an Advil while watching the questions being asked of Powell and with Powell saying the dot plot in a few weeks will most likely tilt up in terms of the median end point of the fed funds rate from the previous 5.4%, the fed funds futures market is pricing in a 48% change of a 50 bps hike in two weeks. That is up from 28% yesterday. The end rate is now up …
[Read more...] about A time for Advil and a check on the fed funds futures
Cutting to the chase of Powell’s prepared testimony, he said “Although inflation has been moderating in recent months, the process of getting inflation back down to 2% has a long way to go and is likely to be bumpy…If the totality of the data were to indicate that faster tightening is warranted, we would be prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes. Restoring price …
[Read more...] about “We will stay the course until the job is done”
With the stock market shrugging off the deteriorating earnings picture, it's quite apparent that the only thing it's focused on is the end of Fed hikes. Yeah, the Fed has a few more to go, but it's clear that there is an assumption that we're close to the end. Thus, Jay Powell day, as it is at each FOMC press conference and speech, will again be a binary event as …
[Read more...] about Powell/RBA/KEY and some comments on CRE/Trade data
Just because it hasn't happened yet, does that mean it won't? The economy has absorbed a lot of interest rate body blows and it won't break. The stock market bottomed in mid October and the fed funds rate will soon be 200 bps higher than it was then and while well off their highs stocks act well for sure this year. Does that mean it's all clear? Well, it's …
[Read more...] about Just because it hasn’t happened yet, does that mean it won’t?
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events: Positives, 1)The February ISM services index was little changed m/o/m at 55.1 vs 55.2 in January but that was just above the estimate of 54.5. Industry breadth improved with 13 industries of 18 asked seeing growth vs 10 in January. Four saw a decline in activity vs 8 last month. 2)The S&P …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events
The February ISM services index was little changed m/o/m at 55.1 vs 55.2 in January but that was just above the estimate of 54.5. New orders were higher by 2.2 pts to 62.6 after jumping by about 15 pts in the month before. Backlogs were steady at 52.8 while inventories got back above 50 for the first time since last May at 50.6 Employment was a bright spot, …
On the debate over wage growth, in case you didn't see the news this week, a few days ago Delta's pilots secured a 34% pay increase over a 4 yr time frame. There will be an 18% immediate pay raise retroactive to the beginning of the year which will be followed by a 5% increase next year and then 4% raises in the two years after. In the last deal struck in December …
[Read more...] about Good for employees, not good for profit margins/Other stuff
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor. Each day The Boock Report provides summaries and commentary on the macro data and news that matter, with analysis of what it all means and how it fits together.
