The Boock Report

Peter Boockvar

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 9/20

Positives 1)The Fed took another step in trying to address the manufacturing and trade driven economic moderation with its 25 bps rate cut. 2)Initial jobless totaled 208k, 5k less than expected and vs 206k last week. This brings the 4 week to 212k from 213k last week and vs 217k the week prior. 3)Existing home sales in August totaled 5.49mm, about 100k more …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 9/13

Positives 1) Both sides are showing some signs of bending on the trade negotiations with a combination of economic and political pressures building. 2) The preliminary September UoM consumer confidence index ticked up a touch to 92 from 89.8 and that was 1.2 pts above the forecast and which follows the 8.6 pt drop in August. Both current conditions and …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 9/6

Positives 1) Within the payroll report, the household survey reflected a jump of 590k jobs (the biggest contribution from those aged 25-54) which combined with an increase of 571k in the size of the labor force kept the unemployment rate unchanged at 3.7% as expected. The participation rate rose two tenths to 63.2% which does match the most since 2013 thanks to a …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 8/23

This is coming to you early because I'm traveling today and will be away next week and not publishing. Putting aside what I think about the economy and what the Fed should do, I believe Jay Powell's commentary will adhere to his mid cycle adjustment theme in which he'll endorse a September rate cut but won't commit past that. He's already got a likely two …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 8/16

Positives 1)The Administration realized that since most of the goods that will be sold in the holiday shopping season have already been ordered with pricing in place, US importers were going eat about all of the intended tariffs. Hence, shifting about $165b of the affected to mid December. 2)July retail sales at the core level (ex auto's, gasoline and building …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 8/9

Positives 1)Initial jobless claims totaled 209k, 6k less than expected and down from 217k last week (revised up by 2k). This brings the 4 week average to 212k which is unchanged with the week prior because a print of 208k dropped out. Continuing claims, delayed by a week, fell by 15k after rising by 22k last week. 2)Refi's continue to be the only notable …

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Succinct Summation of the week’s events – 8/2

Positives 1)The Federal Reserve is responding the only way they know how, to ease policy at the prospect of an economic slowdown, this time due to 'global developments.' Separately, It is the rare central banker that cites financial markets and the desire not to spike the punch bowl for not wanting to cut rates. Quite refreshing to hear. Boston Fed President said …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 7/26

Positives 1)GDP in Q2 surprised to the upside with a 2.1% performance. The estimate was 1.8% and this brings the year to date average to 2.6%. The 2018 growth rate was revised down to 2.5% (4th Q over 4th Q) as part of benchmark revisions. Personal spending was the main catalyst as it grew by 4.3%, 3 tenths more than expected after a modest 1.1% gain in Q1. …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 7/19

Positives 1)Core retail sales in June exceeded expectations with a .7% m/o/m increase, more than twice the estimate of up .3% and May was revised up one tenth to a gain of .6%. Versus last year, core sales improved to a 4.6% y/o/y increase. 2)The July Philly manufacturing index saw a sharp snapback, rising to 21.8 from .3 and that was well above the estimate of 5.0. …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 7/12

Positives 1)I’m sympathetic to Powell’s belief that growth is moderating and he wants to take back that December hike. 2)Initial jobless claims totaled 209k, 12k less than expected vs 222k last week. However because of the 4th of July holiday we can throw out the number and wait until next week to average it out. 3)The MBA said mortgage applications to buy a …

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