Positives 1) The November ISM services index rose .4 pts to 60.7 and that was 1.7 pts better than expected. For comparison, the 6 month average is 59.3. The breadth of the growth remained good as 17 of 18 industries surveyed saw growth, the same level for a 3rd month. This said, 15 of 18 saw growth in new orders, the least in 4 months. Also, all 18 industries said …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 12/7
Positives 1) There is an opportunity Saturday night to at least postpone further tariffs as both sides seem interested in some détente. Even Robert Lighthizer is optimistic. 2) Jay Powell gave himself some breathing room and flexibility in terms of the timing of achieving his goal of an eventual 3%-ish fed funds rate. 3) The headline PCE inflation deflator …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 11/30
Positives 1) The average 30 yr US mortgage rate was little changed w/o/w at 5.16%, just off the 8 1/2 year high of 5.17% last week. Purchases did rebound by 3.1% w/o/w off the lowest level since February 2017 but they are down 4.8% y/o/y. 2) Existing home sales in October totaled 5.22mm, a touch above the estimate of 5.2mm and up from 5.15mm in September. The …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 11/23
Positives 1) Jay Powell still seems intent on raising rates next month but maybe gave himself some wiggle room on that when talking about the economic softening going on overseas. While a pause would have made perfect sense if the fed funds rate was already at 3% or higher, dragging their feet and only getting it to 2-2.25% at this point really complicates their …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events 11/16
Positives 1) The FOMC statement was as uneventful as can be but that itself is a message from the Fed that nothing that occurred in October is going to alter their interest in raising rates again in December. 2) Initial jobless claims at 214k was as expected and little changed from 215k last week. The 4 week average also held at 214k. Continuing claims, delayed …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 11/9
Positives 1) October payrolls grew by 250k, 50k more than expected and there were no net revisions over the two prior months. The household survey reported a big number with a 600k increase in new jobs but because the labor force grew by a whopping 711k, the unemployment rate held at 3.7% while the U6 fell one tenth to 7.4%. Positively, most of these household job …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 11/2
This is being sent before the GDP report because I'll be in transit/meetings. Positives 1) Pending home sales rose .5% in September, a touch above the forecast of no change and follows a 1.9% decline in August. Sales are still lower by 3.4% y/o/y and the m/o/m rise is off the lowest index level since October 2014. The chief economist of the NAR …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 10/26
Positives 1)Initial jobless claims totaled 210k pretty much as expected and down from 215k last week. The 4 week average did tick up to 212k from 210k because a 202k print dropped out of the average. Continuing claims, delayed by a week, fell by 13k to the least since 1973. 2)The Philly manufacturing October index was 22.2 vs 22.9 last week but 2 …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 10/19
Positives 1) President’s Trump and Xi plan a get together at the G20 meeting the end of November. 2) The September consumer price index rose .1% both headline and core and that was one tenth less than expected. The y/o/y gains moderated to 2.3% headline from 2.7% in August. The core rate was up 2.2%, the same as in August. Again, core goods deflation of .3% …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 10/12
Positives 1) September hiring totaled 134k, 50k less than expected but that was completely offset and then some by the 87k person upward revision to the two previous months. After shedding 423k jobs in the household survey in August, 420k were added back in September. As that rose above the 150k increase in the size of the labor force, the unemployment rate fell 2 …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 10/5
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.
