Peter Boockvar

Positives 1) US retail sales in May within the so called ‘control group’ which takes out auto’s, gasoline and building materials rose .5% m/o/m, one tenth more than expected and April was revised up by two tenths and March down by one tenth. 2) Initial jobless claims totaled 218k, 5k less than expected and down from 222k last week. The 4 week average was 224k vs …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 6/15

Positives 1) The ISM services index was a better than expected 58.6, up from 56.8 in April and one point better than the estimate after a 2 pt drop in April. Supply constraints though apparent in the jump in new orders, supplier deliveries and prices paid. While the headline services PMI printed up m/o/m, the breadth weakened. Of 18 industries surveyed 14 saw growth …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 6/8

Positives 1) Payrolls expanded by 223k in May, 33k more than expected and the two prior months were up a revised 15k. The unemployment rate fell another tenth to just 3.8% as the household survey showed a job gain of 293k at the same time the size of the labor market rose just 12k. The U6 unemployment rate is now down to 7.6% which is the lowest since May 2001. …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 6/1

Positives Core retail sales in April (taking out auto's, gasoline and building materials) rose .4% m/o/m as expected while March was revised up by one tenth. Sales just ex autos and gasoline were as expected including a March revision. The y/o/y growth rate of core sales was 3.9%, a bit above the 5 yr average of 3.5% but still below the 5% gains in the two …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 5/18

Positives The first two this week are positive only because they didn’t exceed expectations. Consumer prices rose .2% m/o/m in April at the headline level and .1% ex food and energy. Both were one tenth below the forecast. Due to rounding the y/o/y rise of 2.5% was as expected vs 2.4% in March. The core rate was higher by 2.1%, the same as in March. Again, …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 5/11

Positives 1)After last week’s sharp drop in initial jobless claims to 209k, the lowest since 1969, they stayed pretty low this past week. They totaled 211k, 14k less than expected. This brings the four week average down to 222k from 229k and which is the lowest since 1973. Continuing claims, delayed by a week, fell by 77k to also the lowest since 1973. 2) …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 5/4

Positives Q1 GDP grew by 2.3% annualized, better than the 2% expectations. A main contributor to the beat was the inflation deflator which came in 2 tenths less than expected. Thus, nominal GDP was one tenth above the estimate. Spending was positive thanks to services and more than a 3rd of the contribution from services was from spending on healthcare. Private …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 4/27/18

Positives The Philly April manufacturing index rose slightly to 23.2 from 22.3 and that was 2.2 pts above the forecast. The internals though were much more mixed with new orders, backlogs and inventories down while the labor market components were up. Of note, Delivery Time rose to the highest level ever since this survey began in 1968 and this reflects a …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 4/20

Positives Depending on one’s view this could also be seen as a negative: in the FOMC minutes they said “A number of participants indicated that the stronger outlook for economic activity, along with their increased confidence that inflation would return to 2 percent over the medium term, implied that the appropriate path for the federal funds rate over the next …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 4/13/18

Positives While I’m not supportive of the means, we hope the ends to the tariff threats is an agreement with China over US IP. ADP said private sector job growth over the past 3 months has averaged 243k and with a 6 month average of 203k. Over time though it matches with the BLS as the 12 month average is 192k vs 187k in the BLS private sector component. In …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 4/6/18