Peter Boockvar

Positives 1) In coming weeks, we’ll watch a lower level get together between Chinese and US officials that hopefully will be more than just a coffee talk about the possibility of higher level trade talks. 2) Initial jobless claims totaled 212k, 3k less than expected and down 2k from last week. Due to a print of 208k dropping out of the average, the 4 week …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 8/17

Positives 1) Initial jobless claims totaled 213k, 7k less than expected and down from 219k last week. The 4 week average fell by 1k to 214k which hovers just above the lowest level since 1969. Continuing claims, delayed by a week, rose 29k after falling by 21k last week. 2) US producer prices in July were unchanged m/o/m instead of rising .2% as expected. The …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 8/10

POSITIVES 1) July payrolls grew by 157k, 25k below expectations but was more than offset by a combined upward revision in the two prior months of 59k. The private sector added 170k, 20k less than expected but June alone was revised up by 32k. I did forget to mention in my previous note on this though, the service sector added the least amount of jobs since …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 8/3

Positives 1) US GDP growth in Q2 q/o/q annualized was above 4% for the first time since 2014 at 4.1%. Consumer spending and exports (mostly soybeans) were the main contributors to growth with also help from government spending. Overall investment was little changed as gains in business spending and structures was offset by a decline in residential construction. …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 7/27

Positives 1) Jay Powell's testimony and Q&A in front of Congress was uneventful but short rates are closing the week at fresh 10 year highs as for now he will keep on keeping on. No need yet to commit to a December hike. Rate hike odds are about 60% for two more. 2) Initial jobless claims totaled 207k, 13k below estimates and down from 215k last week. This is …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 7/20

Positives 1) Thanks to a 5 week low in the average 30 yr mortgage rate, buyers of homes stepped up as the MBA said purchases applications rose 6.5% w/o/w and 7.7% y/o/y. 2) China continues to sharply crackdown on any bank lending that is not being done at the bank level. Bank loans spiked by almost 700b m/o/m in June to 1.84T which was 300b more than expected. …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 7/13

Positives 1) The US economy added a net 213k jobs in June, 18k more than expected and the two prior months were revised up by 37k. Manufacturing jobs surprised to the upside by 21k and were key reason for June upside as was government hiring at the state and local level which added the most jobs since August 2017. The household survey said 102k jobs were …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 7/6

Positives 1) The June Chicago manufacturing index rose to 64.1 from 62.7 and that was 4 pts better than expected. While new orders rose to a 5 month high, production fell “for the 4th time since peaking in December, with firms stifled by issues higher up in the supply chain.” Backlogs grew as a result and supplier deliveries (the higher it goes, the more constrained …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 6/29

Positives 1) US retail sales in May within the so called ‘control group’ which takes out auto’s, gasoline and building materials rose .5% m/o/m, one tenth more than expected and April was revised up by two tenths and March down by one tenth. 2) Initial jobless claims totaled 218k, 5k less than expected and down from 222k last week. The 4 week average was 224k vs …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 6/15