United States Industrial production surprised to the upside in April with a 1% m/o/m gain, well above the estimate of up .4% but was it for good reason? The main factor in the upside was on the manufacturing side due to a 5% m/o/m jump in auto production after a 3.6% decline in March. This brings the y/o/y increase to 4% and I asked whether it was for ‘good reason’ …
Housing Starts slowest pace since November
United States April housing starts totaled 1.172mm, well below the forecast of 1.26mm and down from 1.203mm in March which was revised down slightly. This is the slowest pace of starts since November. The main factor in the miss was the drop in multi family starts by 34k to 337k while single family starts were higher by 3k to 835k. See chart. As these numbers are …
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Dollar weakness or Euro strength? / Stagflation light in the UK
The Euro The euro heavy US dollar index is but a smidgeon from giving back the entire Trump election rally. It’s back to where it was on November 9th, the day after, which compares with the close of 97.86 the day of the election. While I saw a news headline today blaming the new news on Trump’s new soap opera story, I’ll stick to the data and the shifts in monetary …
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“You ain’t a beauty but hey you’re alright”
Foreigners in March finally got interested again in US notes and bonds. Buying totaled a net $24.39b, the most since March of last year and follows a steady stream of selling that saw net liquidations of $326b in 2016 and $20.5b in the first two months of this year. This follows net selling of $20.3b in 2015. Most of the swing came from the Japanese who stepped up …
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Investment Ideas – Update – 5/15/17
I've updated my investment ideas page. (members click here). As always, this week's write-up includes specific equity, ETN, and ETFs analysis. Updates of note this week include a new idea in CORN, a significant update to the SCCO position and something new in HYG. Here's a sample from this week's update: There is this persistent belief that gold is a safety play and …
Builders are still feeling good
United States The May NAHB builder sentiment index rose 2 pts to 70 which is also 2 pts more than expected. The Present Situation was higher by 2 pts too after dropping by 3 pts in April and spiking by 6 pts in February. Smoothing this out puts the 6 month average at 74. The Future Outlook was higher by 4 pts to 79 and is also 2 pts above the 6 month average. …
What happens if things don’t get better in Q2?
United States The NY manufacturing May index fell to -1.0 from +5.2 in April. That was well below the estimate of +7.5 and is back below zero for the first time since before the election in October. Post election it peaked at 18.7 in February. New orders fell 11.4 pts to -4.4, the worst since September. Backlogs also went negative, falling by 16.1 pts to -3.7 pts. …
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2% inflation in Japan?!, Oil and yields, OBOR and more soft China data
Japan Mr. Kuroda, you finally have your 2% inflation print. Sorry though that it was for producer prices instead of the 2% cost of living increase for consumers. April PPI rose 2.1% y/o/y. Taking out the influence of the April 2014 VAT hike, it last touched 2% in January 2014. Energy, steel and electricity prices led the way. The estimate was for a gain of 1.8% but …
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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 5/12
Positives Initial jobless claims totaled 236k, 9k less than expected and compares with 238k last week. As a 234k print dropped out, the 4 week average was little changed at 244k. Continuing claims, delayed by a week, fell another 61k to the lowest level since 1988. Headline CPI for April was higher by .2% as expected and the core rate moved up by .1% which was …
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Retail Sales, Inflation, China Whack-a-mole and more…
United States April retail sales at the core level taking out auto’s, gasoline and building materials were up .2% m/o/m which was .2% less than expected but March was revised up by two tenths so call it a two month push relative to forecasts. On a y/o/y basis, the level of core sales were up by 2.9% which as seen in the chart below remains at pretty mediocre growth …
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Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor. Each day The Boock Report provides summaries and commentary on the macro data and news that matter, with analysis of what it all means and how it fits together.