We have a big month ahead that got more relevant last week when the Fed finally awakened. A rate hike, a Dutch election, the last month of full speed ahead ECB QE (they meet on Thursday), and expected details of what healthcare and tax policy the Administration will be behind HOPEFULLY, will become evident. Of course on the latter point what the Senate will support or …
[Read more...] about A Big Month Ahead – The Two Main Things
Note: I’ll be co hosting Squawk Box on CNBC, Monday from 6-7am est. Positives The Fed has finally come around to the belief that rising inflation, a even tighter labor market, a dramatic easing in financial conditions as seen in equity and credit markets, and upcoming fiscal stimulus of some kind would thus mark a good time to raise rates from just .625% …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 3/3
Janet Yellen is basically on board with a March hike by saying “At our meeting later this month, the Committee will evaluate whether employment and inflation are continuing to evolve in line with our expectations, in which case a further adjustment of the fed funds rate would likely be appropriate.” She is also is defending the turf of the FOMC by saying “I …
The February ISM services index rose 1.1 pts to 57.6 where unchanged was expected. It’s at the best level since October 2015. New orders improved by 2.6 pts to 61.2, also the best since 2015. Backlogs rose 4 pts off the 50 level. Employment was up a .5 pt to 55.2 which is where it was in November in the initial reaction after the election. Export orders jumped by 9 …
Stanley Fischer speaks at 12:30pm and Yellen follows at 1pm. Remember a year ago the Fed used the excuse of ‘the tightening of financial conditions’ as reason not to hike. With stocks at record highs and credit spreads near record lows its now quite the opposite. Thanks to rising energy costs, January headline CPI in Japan rose .4% y/o/y as expected vs .3% in …
All right now, we’ve got another Fed dove who seems to be on board with a March rate hike. The team is coming together. Fed Governor Lael Brainard last night said “assuming continued progress, it will likely be appropriate soon to remove additional accommodation, continuing on a gradual path.” She also mentioned the need to shrink the balance sheet at some point. …
Modest and moderate are filtered throughout the Fed’s Beige Book, more of the same notwithstanding the more ebullient emotional response to the election. And, the last sentence of the 1st paragraph was this: “Businesses were generally optimistic about the near-term outlook but to a somewhat lesser degree than in the prior report.” The Fed is raising rates in two …
[Read more...] about Beige Book Still Saying “Modest” and “Moderate” A Lot
To quantify the impact from this morning’s negative real January personal spending figure from the perspective of one organization, the Atlanta Fed, they just cut their Q1 GDP forecast to 1.8% from 2.5% on Monday. Prior to today, the consensus for Q1 was around 2%. It is now vital for tax reform to get done quickly and not get bogged down so companies can make …
[Read more...] about Tax Reform, Political Fights and Q1 GDP
The ISM manufacturing index for February was 57.7, up 1.7 pt from January and 1.5 pts above the estimate. It’s at the best level since August 2014 and follows the improvements seen in all the regional manufacturing surveys. New orders jumped by 4.7 pts to 65.1 and thus is well above 50. Backlogs spiked by 7.5 pts to 57 and that’s the first time above 50 since June. …
[Read more...] about Manufacturing, Inflation, Personal Spending, Fed Moves
The content was optimistic and the delivery was smooth but we still yearn for details on the tax plan that DJT will eventually be behind and we didn’t get it, not unexpectedly. Thus, there really wasn’t anything new in last night’s speech in terms of his long wish list. On the issue of the Border Adjustment Tax (BAT) and its vital place in the Paul Ryan Better Way …
[Read more...] about Tax Plan, Retailers Strike Back, Overseas
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor. Each day The Boock Report provides summaries and commentary on the macro data and news that matter, with analysis of what it all means and how it fits together.
