The October NY manufacturing index, the 1st October industrial figure to be released, fell to -9.1 from -1.5 and that was below the estimate of -4.3. It’s also the 3rd straight month below zero and the 5th month in the past 6. New orders were unchanged at 3.7 while backlogs were under zero for a 5th straight month, though a touch less so. Inventories moderated but are still above zero at 4.6. Employment fell 2 pts but after rising by a similar amount in September. The workweek got back above zero. Delivery Time was basically flat at -.9. Prices paid rebounded by 9 pts after falling by 16 pts last month while those received fell .7 pts to the least since January 2021.
The 6 month outlook fell back below zero at -1.8 and that’s the 2nd time in the past 4 months. Capital spending plans improved but not for technology as it fell after rising in September.
Bottom line, we know that manufacturers are dealing with the hangover from the goods spending party over the past few years, the economic slowdown overseas and the competitive pressure from the strength in the dollar. While supply constraints have definitely eased as have commodity prices, they are still well above previous years and still remain a cost and procurement challenge, as does managing one’s labor force.
NY Mfr’g
Prices Received
The 6 month Outlook
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor. Each day The Boock Report provides summaries and commentary on the macro data and news that matter, with analysis of what it all means and how it fits together.