Initial jobless claims totaled 219k, 15k more than expected and up from 190k last week. The 4 week average though was little changed at 207k vs 206k last week and vs 216k in the week before. Continuing claims rose to 1.361mm from 1.346mm and 11k above the estimate.
Bottom line, the absolute level of claims is still really low as while some industries are cutting staff such as in tech, others are holding tight to employees after a tough time finding many of them over the past few years. Overall though, while firing’s remain muted, the pace of hiring’s will likely reflect further slowing tomorrow as it did in the ADP report.
This said, we also saw today the Challenger job cut data (thus doesn’t reflect the offsetting number of hiring’s) and there was a 46% increase in cuts in September relative to August. They said “September marks the fifth time this year that cuts were higher in 2022 than in the corresponding month a year earlier.” The positive was that the number of job cuts in Q3 was below Q2. A senior VP there said “Some cracks are beginning to appear in the labor market. Hiring is slowing and downsizing events are beginning to occur.”
4 Week Avg in Claims
Continuing Claims
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor. Each day The Boock Report provides summaries and commentary on the macro data and news that matter, with analysis of what it all means and how it fits together.