New home sales in July totaled 654k, well above the estimate of 580k and up from 582k in June. This is the best pace of sales in this recovery and was mostly driven by a 61k home sale increase in the South. The West and Midwest were flat and the Northeast rose by 10k. With the rise in sales, months’ supply fell to 4.3 from 4.9, the lowest since 2013. Fortunately for …
[Read more...] about New home sales, Markit Manufacturing, Richmond Fed and more…
“She’s the one they call Dr. Feelgood, she’s the one that makes ya feel alright.” I know, Motley Crue is not for everybody and I’ve substituted She for He, but I lay out the lyrics just days before we hear from our monetary Dr who is not just an academic doctorate. Ben Bernanke and Alan Greenspan went to the same med school where markets LOVED the monetary drugs that …
Positives: Initial jobless claims totaled 262k, 3k less than expected and down 4k from last week. As a print of 252k comes out of the 4 week average, the new average rose to 265k, the most in 6 weeks from 263k but it’s still very low. July CPI was flat headline as expected and rose .1% core which was one tenth less than expected. On a y/o/y basis, prices were …
[Read more...] about 8/19 – A Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events
Initial jobless claims totaled 262k, 3k less than expected and down 4k from last week. As a print of 252k comes out of the 4 week average, the new average rose to 265k, the most in 6 weeks from 263k but it’s still very low. Continuing claims, delayed by a week, rose 15k after a 19k increase last week. It’s quietly at the highest level since late March. Something to …
Bottom line, some committee members believed the data supported a rate hike. In fact, some “judged that another increase in the federal funds rate was or would soon be warranted, with a couple of them advocating an increase at this meeting.” On the other hand, many judged that it was appropriate to wait for additional information that would allow them to evaluate the …
[Read more...] about FOMC Minutes, Sovereign Bond Yields, Retail
I posted some commentary over at CNBC.com about the possibility of the Fed raising inflation targets. Here's a taste: I can't let an opportunity go by without criticizing a Fed official. I believe their feet should be held to the fire after creating a huge asset price bubble and culture of debt that is dragging down economic growth. Fed President John Williams …
[Read more...] about Fed Inflation Targets, CPI, Housing Starts, Industrial Production
This morning I was CNBC and one of the things we discussed was the importance of keeping an eye on Japan's government-sponsored bonds for equity signals. If Japan does pivot from NIRP there are ramifications across global bond yields and therefore equities. Watch here: The NAHB home builder sentiment index for August rose to 60 from 58 in July (revised from …
[Read more...] about Home Builders, NY Manufacturing, Japan Bonds a Canary?
Positives: As measured by wholesale prices, inflation was subdued in July as headline PPI fell .4% m/o/m and .3% ex food and energy. Business inventories in June rose .2% m/o/m, one tenth more than expected and with a 1.2% sales gain, the inventory to sales ratio fell to 1.39 from 1.40. That is the lowest since November but still remains elevated and not far …
[Read more...] about 8/12 – Succinct Summation of Week’s Events
Retail sales in July were weaker than expected. Sales ex auto’s and gasoline fell .1% instead of rising by 3 tenths as expected. Revisions netted out to no change in the two prior months. Also taking out building materials to get to the so called ‘control group’ saw sales flat m/o/m vs the estimate of up .3%. Vehicle sales rebounded by 1.1% m/o/m but are now down by …
[Read more...] about Retail Sales, UoM, Biz Inventories, NIRP
Initial jobless claims totaled 266k, about in line with the estimate of 265k and vs 267k last week which was revised down by 2k. The 4 week average did rise to 263k from 260k as a print of 254k dropped out of the average. Continuing claims, delayed by one week, rose by 14k. Bottom line, this weekly data point remains a broken record in a good way in that the pace of …
[Read more...] about Jobless Claims, Import Prices, 30 yr Auction
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor. Each day The Boock Report provides summaries and commentary on the macro data and news that matter, with analysis of what it all means and how it fits together.
