Initial jobless claims fell under 200k at 190k vs the estimate of 214k and down from 205k last week. The 4 week average fell to 206k from 213k in the week before. Delayed by a week, continuing claims rose 17k to 1.647mm but after falling by 67k in the week before. Bottom line, as the MLK holiday likely influenced the figure, wait until next week to get a cleaner …
Sentiment/CRE/Wages and other anecdotes
The market rally has brought back the bulls as sentiment ALWAYS follows price. Yesterday Investors Intelligence said Bulls rose 46.5 from 41.4 and that is the most since December 2021. Bears fell to 29.6 from 32.9. In today's AAII, Bulls rose 7 pts to 31, the most since mid November 2022. Bears fell by almost 7 pts to 33.1, the least since early November 2022 and just …
[Read more...] about Sentiment/CRE/Wages and other anecdotes
IP joins other mfr’g data points/Builder sentiment
The string of disappointing US data points (ISM mfr’g, services, NY mfr’g, retail sales, housing, autos and NFIB) continued with a 7 tenths m/o/m drop in December for industrial production and November was revised down by 4 tenths. Manufacturing softness led the way (confirming the weakness in other mfr’g data) with a 1.3% m/o/m drop, well worse than the expected down …
[Read more...] about IP joins other mfr’g data points/Builder sentiment
Wholesale inflation continues to roll over/Retail sales soft
Headline PPI fell by .5% m/o/m in December, more than the estimate of down one tenth. The core rate rise of .1% was as forecasted but November was revised lower by two tenths. The y/o/y headline gain slowed to 6.2% from 7.4% while the core rate was up by 5.5% vs 6.2% in the month prior. About half the decline for goods prices was the 13.4% drop in gasoline, …
[Read more...] about Wholesale inflation continues to roll over/Retail sales soft
Making sense of the nonsensical
The binding constraint on the Bank of Japan that is stopping them from conducting monetary policy in order to best keep prices stable is that they are now an arm of the Japanese government and financing that government's fiscal needs takes precedence. The need to keep financing costs low with that huge amount of debt is priority number one. It's the only …
New Podcast: All That Glitters With Dan Nathan, Peter Boockvar and Rudi Fronk, CEO of Seabridge Gold.
I'm happy to present a new podcast and CEO interview. In this episode Dan Nathan and I discuss commodities, particularly gold and silver with the latter also benefiting from industrial uses as well as being a monetary metal. Then we discuss the importance of copper in this new age of electrification and renewables. We also cover the upcoming earnings …
That was ugly
After two months in a row to end 2022 seeing contraction in US manufacturing as measured by ISM, the January NY manufacturing index, the first January industrial figure to be reported, plunged to -32.9 from -11.2 and that was well worse than the estimate of -8.6. If you take out covid, this is the worst print since March 2009. New orders (forward looking) went from …
‘Mild’ recession clearly consensus but broaden the debate
I've included below some comments from the earnings calls from JPM, BAC and DAL. The consensus out of the bank executives is that we'll have a 'mild' recession (the CEO's at Davos this week I'm sure will echo the same thing) but I think it's important to think more broadly than this. We could have a mild recession but something that is drawn out. We could have a …
[Read more...] about ‘Mild’ recession clearly consensus but broaden the debate
Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 1/13
Positives 1)The December CPI fell one tenth headline while up .3% core and both were exactly as anticipated. Versus last year, headline inflation rose 6.5% and the core rate was higher by 5.7% with both a slowdown from the 7.1% and 6% seen in November, respectively. Energy prices fell 4.5% m/o/m, though still up 7.3% y/o/y. Food prices grew by .3% m/o/m and a still …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 1/13
My quarterly guarantee
I'll guarantee something today, one I make every quarter. That about 70-75% of companies reporting earnings will beat the earnings per share consensus estimate. We'll still likely see y/o/y declines for Q4 and muted guidance but that is how the earnings game is played, each and every quarter. With respect to market valuations ahead of earnings, we know we all usually …
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor. Each day The Boock Report provides summaries and commentary on the macro data and news that matter, with analysis of what it all means and how it fits together.