Positives 1)The August ISM services PMI rose a touch to 56.9 from 56.7 in July and that was above the estimate of 55.3. That puts it about in line with the average year to date of 57.1 and it is the exact same level where it stood in February 2020. Of the 18 industries surveyed, 14 saw growth vs 13 in July, 18 in June and 14 in May. The ISM said “Growth continues, …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 9/9
The usually interesting and straight forward Gary Friedman, the CEO of RH, spoke on his company's earnings call last night and here were some good quotes from him. As for the outlook, "our expectation is for continued softening in our business trends during the remainder of fiscal 2022 as a result of ongoing weakness in the housing market over the next several …
[Read more...] about The always interesting Gary Friedman/Other good stuff
With ECB president Lagarde sounding hawkish, talking tough about wanting to contain inflation, and saying the vote to hike 75 bps was unanimous, the German 2 yr yield is now up 15 bps vs the 2.5 bps when I last wrote. At 1.255%, this would be a closing high last seen in 2011. 10 yr yields are up about 10-11 bps in Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Portugal. The Euro …
Reality and the German influence likely gaining traction resulted in the 75 bps rate increase by the ECB that at this point was anticipated. We’ll see if Lagarde hints at 8:45am whether we’ll see a string of these type of hikes in the meetings to come as they are still so far under the rate of inflation. The Transmission Protection of Italy, otherwise known as the …
Nick Timiraos at the WSJ is at it again, reporting on what the Fed will do at its next meeting in two weeks. They will hike by 75 bps according to him, taking the fed funds range to 3-3.25% and then will slow down the pace of increase in the following two meetings. On today's front page he said, "The Federal Reserve appears to be on a path to raise interest rates by …
In the debate over whether we are in a recession or not (we have a recession for some and not for others I say), the Fed’s Beige Book called it a draw using words like slightly, modestly and steady in describing economic activity in the 12 districts. Assume slightly and modestly have the same meaning here and steady means little changed from the prior Beige Book. 5 …
The Bank of Canada raised its benchmark rate by 75 bps to 3.25% as expected after surprising everyone with a 100 bps increase at its prior meeting to 2.50%. They are also continuing with QT. The only commitment from here was to keep raising rates but there was no hint in the statement as to by what pace and how high. They will know it when they see it, it seems. …
Newell Brands, which makes everything from Sharpie pens, Elmer's glue, and Rubbermaid garbage cans, to Graco baby products, Yankee Candles, Coleman camping equipment and Mr. Coffee machines said this last night in their lowered guidance, "Although we remain enthusiastic about the back-to-school season and continue to see solid growth in the Commercial business, we …
There is a major tale of two cities today in the two readings on the US services sector, which is by far the biggest. The ISM said things are peachy. S&P Global said we’re in recession in services with its August print of just 43.7, well under 50. The former only surveys large companies while the latter also includes small and medium sized ones. The August ISM …
I guess it could have been worse with the response in European natural gas to the Nordstream1 shutdown. Dutch TTF is up 4% over the past 2 days, giving back most of yesterday's jump. After falling by almost 50% last week, after doubling in the two weeks prior, German power prices are up 7% over the past two days. The senior VP for gas and power at Equinor, the large …
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor. Each day The Boock Report provides summaries and commentary on the macro data and news that matter, with analysis of what it all means and how it fits together.
