Positives 1)May payrolls rose by 390k, above the estimate of 318k, partly offset by a 22k downward revision to the two prior months. The private sector added 333k of this, 32k more than expected and thus government workers contributed the most to the upside. The household survey said 321k jobs were added and when combined with a similar 330k person increase in the …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 6/3
May payrolls rose by 390k, above the estimate of 318k, partly offset by a 22k downward revision to the two prior months. The private sector added 333k of this, 32k more than expected and thus government workers contributed the most to the upside. The household survey said 321k jobs were added and when combined with a similar 330k person increase in the labor force, …
As we all try to figure out, especially the Fed, the amount of rate hikes and QT that will be needed to not just tame inflation but eventually bring it back to the magically invented level of 2% without damaging the economy and also deflating further asset price inflation that has also run rampant over the past few years, we have to understand that the US economy and …
ADP said a net 128k private sector jobs were added in May, well below the estimate of 300k and April was revised down by 25k to 202k. Notable was the 2nd month in a row of job declines for small businesses, those with less than 50 employees. These companies are having a tough time competing with the newly elevated wage bar set by its bigger competitors. The service …
I have to highlight again what is going on in European bonds as yields continue to rise. When we look back over the last 10 yrs and search for excess, negative interest rate policy was the epitome of it as it was the ultimate hot potato, and the air continues to come out of that epic bubble in response to high inflation and ECB rates that are still negative and QE is …
[Read more...] about Bond yields/US auto sales/Market sentiment
With the just released Beige Book from the Fed, let’s hone in on the comments on consumer spending and how consumers are reacting to higher prices and the mix shift in their spending behavior away from goods and towards services like travel. Boston: “Retail and restaurant contacts reported flat to moderately higher sales, and tourism contacts enjoyed robust …
[Read more...] about Beige Book, how’s the consumer reacting?
The May ISM manufacturing index rose to 56.1 from 55.4 in April. That was 1.6 pts above the estimate and the May print compares with 57.1 seen in March and 58.6 in February. New orders were up 1.6 pts m/o/m to 55.1 but still below the 6 month average of 57.2. Backlogs were higher by 2.7 pts to 58.7 and there was a 4.3 pt increase in inventories to a 6 month high. …
Treasury Secretary Yellen said yesterday on CNN, "I was wrong about the path inflation would take. There have been unanticipated and large shocks to the economy that have boosted energy and food prices and supply bottlenecks that have affected our economy badly that at the time I didn't fully understand." We all get things wrong at times, no doubt but one didn't have …
[Read more...] about No need for Economics 101 class for this/Other things of importance
Somewhat dated and likely marking peak rate of change, the S&P CoreLogic national home price index in March saw a rise of 20.6% y/o/y, the quickest in this cycle and that is on top of a 13.5% y/o/y rise in March 2021. Again, great for existing homeowners that can tap that equity if needed but this is remains quite the challenge for the first time buyer. Bottom …
While Atlanta Fed president Bostic last week focused more on the rate he wants to get to, that being 2%ish, before playing it by ear from there, Fed governor Waller over the weekend is more focused on doing whatever it takes to get inflation back to 2%. He said yesterday in Germany, "I am not taking 50 bp hikes off the table until I see inflation coming down closer to …
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor. Each day The Boock Report provides summaries and commentary on the macro data and news that matter, with analysis of what it all means and how it fits together.
