New home sales in August totaled 713k which was well above the forecast of 659k and July was revised up by 31k to 666k and which compares with 729k in June. All of the upside m/o/m was seen in the South and West. As the number of homes for sale slipped, months’ supply fell to 5.5 from 5.9. The median home price, which jumps around a lot month to month, rose 2.2% to a …
At least for now, it should mean nothing
I'm certainly not going to chime in on the factual side of the allegations against Trump and only say what it might mean about the economy and markets. I'll argue for now, nothing as no matter where it goes in the House, it dies in the Senate. Yes, Washington DC now has something else to obsess about but it will mean much less to Main Street and Wall Street. Now this …
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Good 2 yr auction
The 2 yr note auction, an area of the curve very sensitive to Fed policy and maybe an area of safety for those fixed income buyers shaken by what’s happened in money markets over the past week, was very good. The yield of 1.612% was about 1 bp below the when issued. The bid to cover of 2.64 was above the one year average of 2.56. And, direct and indirect bidders took …
Consumer confidence slips as does mfr’g in Richmond region
The September Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence index fell to 125.1 from 134.2 and that was well below the estimate of 133. It’s also a 3 month low and below the average seen this year of 128.6. Of particular note was the weakness in the Expectations component which fell to 95.8 from 106.4 and that’s the lowest since January (right after stock market tanked) and …
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One more thing
If you click thru to the website, it should currently include everything in a clear fashion. …
Fixing the delivery of the daily notes
We are working on fixing the email delivery issues that are bunching up the text into one paragraph and not printing the charts. This should be fixed ASAP. Sorry for any inconvenience. …
Some notable things this am
Last week the Fed released its Q2 flow of funds statement, essentially the financial statements of the country at all levels, both public and private sectors. I include the updated Net Worth to Disposable Income chart at almost 700% to highlight the US economy's dependency on asset prices in driving things. It is why raising them is the Fed's other mandate and …
A read on US mfr’g and services
The Markit US manufacturing and services composite index for September rose a touch to 51 from 50.7 with manufacturing up ticking to 51 from 50.3 and services up by .2 pts to 50.9. Here are some comments from Markit as while the number did slightly increase, it still remains around the 50 level. With services, new orders fell to the lowest level since the survey …
Further economic weakness overseas
The German manufacturing sector continued to worsen in September as its PMI fell to just 41.4, well below the breakeven of 50 while services moderated as well to 52.5. With activity down too in France, the overall manufacturing and services composite index for the Eurozone is now basically flatlining at 50.4, a more than 6 year low with manufacturing down to 45.6 and …
Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 9/20
Positives 1)The Fed took another step in trying to address the manufacturing and trade driven economic moderation with its 25 bps rate cut. 2)Initial jobless totaled 208k, 5k less than expected and vs 206k last week. This brings the 4 week to 212k from 213k last week and vs 217k the week prior. 3)Existing home sales in August totaled 5.49mm, about 100k more …
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Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.