Housing starts in October were about as expected when taking into account the September revision. Single family starts improved to 936k from 918k in September and that is the most since January. In terms of geography it still remains very bifurcated. Single family starts in the Northeast plunged by 20k to the least since February 2015 and I have to again point to the …
[Read more...] about Housing starts & permits. Go South & West young man & woman.
As you know I've argued that the BoJ and ECB are at the end of their road in terms of monetary activism. An article today from Bloomberg News said "An unprecedented level of concern about damaging side effects of Japan's multi decade experiment with ultra low interest rates has gripped policy makers, regulators and legislators. The key takeaway: fiscal policy is set …
[Read more...] about End of the road/Retail/All on us/Some data
The NAHB home builder index for November fell 1 pt from October to 70. The estimate was for no change. Even still, with the breakeven being 50, builders are certainly highly confident. The internals were mixed as the Present Situation fell 2 pts but only after rising by 3 pts last month. The Future Outlook was up by 1 pt while Prospective Buyers Traffic was down by 1 …
With the rally to new highs in the S&P 500, the price to sales ratio in this index is now exactly where it was in early 2000. It’s only one valuation metric which takes out the games that are played with earnings. It also means nothing for stock market performance in the short term and thus is just a perspective check more than anything. PRICE TO SALES RATIO …
I'm going to start the week by talking about the Fed's balance sheet which has rocketed in size due to their purchases of T-bills. Whether it should be considered QE4 or not, in the eyes of the market it's just semantics. Markets view any increase in the size of the Fed's balance sheet as QE and the $250b increase in just two months is no doubt helping to lift stock …
[Read more...] about Fed’s balance sheet/Just say ‘constructive’ every day
Positives 1)”We are coming down to the short strokes” on this phase one deal says Larry Kudlow. Let’s hope so and that it includes substance and a roll back in at least some tariffs. 2)The producer price index in October rose .4% m/o/m headline and .3% core and both were one tenth more than expected. The y/o/y gains though did slow from September with the …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 11/15
Incorporating the week’s economic data into their models, the NY Fed’s Nowcast Q4 GDP estimate has fallen to .4% from .7% last week and 1.9% the week before. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast for Q4 has been cut to .3% from 1% in their last read and vs 1.8% at the end of October. …
[Read more...] about NY and Atlanta Fed adjust GDP estimates
Core retail sales in October rose .3% m/o/m as expected but September was revised down a slight one tenth. If we take out just autos and gasoline and leave building materials in, the sales picture missed by more. Here sales were up just .1% m/o/m, two tenths light relative to expectations and September was revised down by one tenth. Relative to September, sales …
[Read more...] about An ordinary retail sales report/NY mfr’g
Are we there yet? //www.youtube.com/watch?v=a8k1eTEw4rQ. Larry Kudlow last night said "We are coming down to the short strokes." The markets response though has been mixed which should tell us we've priced this in, for the 100th time. The Shanghai comp fell by .6%, the H share index was flat, the offshore yuan is up a touch, soybeans are higher by 1.7%, copper …
Yes, we all hope for some sort of trade deal that will get rid of at least some of the tariffs and the Fed rate cuts will lead to a soft landing and that economic growth will improve thereafter but until then, business activity continues to slow according to the new October report from Cass Freight. The October Cass Freight index fell 5.9% y/o/y which is the 11th …
[Read more...] about It’s Cass Freight time/Consumer confidence
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.
