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January 19, 2023 By Peter Boockvar

Claims, mfr’g and housing stats

Initial jobless claims fell under 200k at 190k vs the estimate of 214k and down from 205k last week. The 4 week average fell to 206k from 213k in the week before. Delayed by a week, continuing claims rose 17k to 1.647mm but after falling by 67k in the week before. Bottom line, as the MLK holiday likely influenced the figure, wait until next week to get a cleaner …

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January 19, 2023 By Peter Boockvar

Sentiment/CRE/Wages and other anecdotes

The market rally has brought back the bulls as sentiment ALWAYS follows price. Yesterday Investors Intelligence said Bulls rose 46.5 from 41.4 and that is the most since December 2021. Bears fell to 29.6 from 32.9. In today's AAII, Bulls rose 7 pts to 31, the most since mid November 2022. Bears fell by almost 7 pts to 33.1, the least since early November 2022 and just …

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January 18, 2023 By Peter Boockvar

IP joins other mfr’g data points/Builder sentiment

The string of disappointing US data points (ISM mfr’g, services, NY mfr’g, retail sales, housing, autos and NFIB) continued with a 7 tenths m/o/m drop in December for industrial production and November was revised down by 4 tenths. Manufacturing softness led the way (confirming the weakness in other mfr’g data) with a 1.3% m/o/m drop, well worse than the expected down …

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January 18, 2023 By Peter Boockvar

Wholesale inflation continues to roll over/Retail sales soft

Headline PPI fell by .5% m/o/m in December, more than the estimate of down one tenth. The core rate rise of .1% was as forecasted but November was revised lower by two tenths. The y/o/y headline gain slowed to 6.2% from 7.4% while the core rate was up by 5.5% vs 6.2% in the month prior. About half the decline for goods prices was the 13.4% drop in gasoline, …

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January 18, 2023 By Peter Boockvar

Making sense of the nonsensical

The binding constraint on the Bank of Japan that is stopping them from conducting monetary policy in order to best keep prices stable is that they are now an arm of the Japanese government and financing that government's fiscal needs takes precedence. The need to keep financing costs low with that huge amount of debt is priority number one. It's the only …

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podcast

January 17, 2023 By Peter Boockvar

New Podcast: All That Glitters With Dan Nathan, Peter Boockvar and Rudi Fronk, CEO of Seabridge Gold.

I'm happy to present a new podcast and CEO interview. In this episode Dan Nathan and I discuss commodities, particularly gold and silver with the latter also benefiting from industrial uses as well as being a monetary metal. Then we discuss the importance of copper in this new age of electrification and renewables. We also cover the upcoming earnings …

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January 17, 2023 By Peter Boockvar

That was ugly

After two months in a row to end 2022 seeing contraction in US manufacturing as measured by ISM, the January NY manufacturing index, the first January industrial figure to be reported, plunged to -32.9 from -11.2 and that was well worse than the estimate of -8.6. If you take out covid, this is the worst print since March 2009. New orders (forward looking) went from …

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January 17, 2023 By Peter Boockvar

‘Mild’ recession clearly consensus but broaden the debate

I've included below some comments from the earnings calls from JPM, BAC and DAL. The consensus out of the bank executives is that we'll have a 'mild' recession (the CEO's at Davos this week I'm sure will echo the same thing) but I think it's important to think more broadly than this. We could have a mild recession but something that is drawn out. We could have a …

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January 13, 2023 By Peter Boockvar

Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 1/13

Positives 1)The December CPI fell one tenth headline while up .3% core and both were exactly as anticipated. Versus last year, headline inflation rose 6.5% and the core rate was higher by 5.7% with both a slowdown from the 7.1% and 6% seen in November, respectively. Energy prices fell 4.5% m/o/m, though still up 7.3% y/o/y. Food prices grew by .3% m/o/m and a still …

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January 13, 2023 By Peter Boockvar

My quarterly guarantee

I'll guarantee something today, one I make every quarter. That about 70-75% of companies reporting earnings will beat the earnings per share consensus estimate. We'll still likely see y/o/y declines for Q4 and muted guidance but that is how the earnings game is played, each and every quarter. With respect to market valuations ahead of earnings, we know we all usually …

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About Peter

Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor. Each day The Boock Report provides summaries and commentary on the macro data and news that matter, with analysis of what it all means and how it fits together.

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Disclaimer - Peter Boockvar is an independent economist and market strategist. The Boock Report is independently produced by Peter Boockvar. Peter Boockvar is also the Chief Investment Officer of Bleakley Financial Group, LLC a Registered Investment Adviser. The Boock Report and Bleakley Financial Group, LLC are separate entities. Content contained in The Boock Report newsletters should not be construed as investment advice offered by Bleakley Financial Group, LLC or Peter Boockvar. This market commentary is for informational purposes only and is not meant to constitute a recommendation of any particular investment, security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy. The views expressed in this commentary should not be taken as advice to buy, sell or hold any security. To the extent any of the content published as part of this commentary may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person. No chart, graph, or other figure provided should be used to determine which securities to buy or sell. Consult your advisor about what is best for you.

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