The Boock Report

ADP said there were 213k private sector jobs created in January, 32k more than expected and compares with 263k last month (revised down by 8k). The main reason for the upside was because of a 68k job increase in the goods producing sector, the most since February 2018. The service side, about 80% of the economy, saw 145k jobs added which is below the 6 month average …

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As we await the FOMC statement and the Powell press conference with the state of the balance sheet being a key focus, I want to remind everyone what Ben Bernanke told us all in a Washington Post editorial in November 2010 about QE, just as QE2 was starting (and hinted at in August 2010) in explaining its impact. “Stock prices rose and long term interest rates fell …

[Read more...] about Remember what Bernanke told us/Overseas

Sorry for late review of this data point. The January Conference Board Consumer Confidence index fell to 102.2 from 126.6 and that was about 4 pts less than expected and all to do with the 10 pt drop in the Expectations component as the Present Situation held steady. The headline index is at the lowest since July 2017 while the Expectations part fell to the weakest …

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The earnings minefield continues with now less than the average of 70% of companies beating earnings estimates (about 65%) and the extent of the beat rate half the average. Also, revenue beats are only totaling about 1/3 of those companies that have reported. For stocks the rest of the year, where will EPS settle in and what's the right P/E multiple to pay for …

[Read more...] about The minefield continues

Another Treasury auction and another very mixed one. The yield of the 2 yr auction was priced at 2.6%, a hair below the when issued but the bid to cover of 2.56 was well below the 12 month average of 2.75. The real positive was the level of direct and indirect buying which totaled 72.5% of the auction, well more than the one year average of 59%. That is the most since …

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After weakness in the NY manufacturing, a rebound in Philly and a still below zero print for Richmond, the Dallas manufacturing index for January rose to +1 from -5.1. That was a bit better than the estimate of -2.7. That -5.1 print in December was a 22.7 pts m/o/m drop for perspective on the rebound in January. The rise in oil prices helped sentiment in this region …

[Read more...] about Dallas regional mfr’g around flat line

Let's start with the Fed ahead of Wednesday's statement and press conference. As we know, they've taken a time out with respect to rate increases, whose hikes have had the most direct impact on economic activity. They've now shifted attention, as pointed out by the WSJ Friday, to the balance sheet. The direction of the balance sheet has had the biggest impact on stock …

[Read more...] about “QE is monetary policy for rich people”

That Mitch McConnell is finally getting involved and talking to Chuck Schumer is opening a window of hope that this nonsense can finally end. As it won't today, we will not be seeing durable goods and new home sales this morning. The stock market reaction to earnings from individual companies has certainly been bipolar with those surprising to the upside getting …

[Read more...] about Mitch and Chuck/Earnings/Data

The Markit US manufacturing and services composite index held steady in January at 54.5 vs 54.4 last month. There was a 1.1 rise in manufacturing m/o/m off the lowest level since 2016 and a .2 pt drop in services. This index has essentially been between 54 and 55 for the past 6 months. Markit said this on manufacturing: “The improvement…was driven by the fastest …

[Read more...] about Mfr’g and services/2020?