Initial jobless claims rose 3k w/o/w to 269k which was 4k above the estimate. As a 254k print dropped out of the 4 week average, the new 4 week average rose to 260k from 257k. Continuing claims, delayed by a week, fell 6k after rising by 12k last week. Bottom line, ahead of tomorrow’s July payroll report, the pace of firing’s remains modest for the reasons we’ve known …
ISM, ADP, Services PMI’s, Mortgage Apps
The July ISM services index fell 1 pt to 55.5 which was a touch below the estimate of 55.9 but is still above the average year to date of 54.6. This compares with the 2015 average of 57.2. New orders rose .4 pts to the best since October at 60.3 although there was a drop in the number of companies seeing an increase to 13 from 15 surveyed in June. Backlogs rose 3.5 …
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July ISM Still Above 50, UK PMI Not So Much, Bottom in Bond Yields?
The July ISM manufacturing index fell .6 pts to 52.6 which was a touch below the estimate of 53.0 and down from 53.2 in June which was a jump from 51.3 in May. New orders were basically unchanged at 56.9 vs 57 last month with 12 industries of 18 surveyed seeing growth, the same as in June. Backlogs however fell 4.5 pts to back below 50 at 48 after jumping by 5.5 pts …
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7/29 – Succinct Summation of Week’s Events
Positives: The Employment Cost Index for Q2 saw private sector wages and salaries rise 2.6% y/o/y, the most since Q1 2015 and a pick up from the 2% gain in Q1. Benefits also rose by the most since Q1 2015 and by 1.7% y/o/y vs 1.2% in Q1. The Chicago PMI for July fell 1 pt to 55.8 but that was a bit higher than the estimate of 54. Smoothing out this very …
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BoJ: Have They Reached the Logistical End of The Road?
What was most relevant from the BoJ was not what they did, it is what they didn’t do. Doubling their etf purchases is just more of the same and likely why the Nikkei rallied even though the yen is ripping higher. But, by not moving further into NIRP maybe is a reflection that Kuroda took note of the really cynical response on the part of both the Japanese banking …
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Market response to FOMC, Atlanta Fed, BoJ
TINA (‘there is no alternative’ to stocks which there never is in a bull market) and the dividend yield on stocks being higher than many bonds are the two main reasons being given for the persistent strength in large cap stocks. I don’t mean to pick on any one company but I want to use one as an example that if you’re going to ‘search for yield’ in stocks, remember …
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Ongoing game of whether and when to hike measly 25 bps continues
On the heels of the 287k print in June, the FOMC acknowledged this by saying “job gains were strong in June following weak growth in May.” They added this new line on the labor market that wasn’t there previously: “On balance, payrolls and other labor market indicators point to some increase in labor utilization in recent months.” They repeated that household spending …
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Durable Goods, Japan Stimulus, Fed Funds Futures, more…
Core durable goods orders, as measured by non defense capital goods ex aircraft, rose .2% m/o/m in June with May revised down by one tenth to a decline of .5%. It was in line with the estimate for up .2%. This measure of capital spending was still down 4.2% y/o/y and remains the missing piece of US economic activity. Durable goods ex transports were much weaker than …
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New Podcast – FOMC Preview: It’s the Central Bank’s World
I just sat down with Guy Adami and Dan Nathan for the first of many podcasts for The Boock Report. It's about 45 minutes long and we cover the FOMC statement tomorrow, what other Central Banks like the ECB and BoJ are doing. And ultimately what it all means for the dollar, yields, commodities, equities and the economy as a whole. I specifically discuss what was in the …
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FOMC and BoJ Preview: Welcome to the Jungle
A few months ago I referred to monetary policy as entering a Jungleland where central bankers are essentially lost in the woods. After seeing Guns N Roses Saturday night, I'll refer to this week as Welcome to the Jungle. The week is all about the Fed and the BoJ. The key questions to be answered are will the former raise the possibility of a rate hike this year and …
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Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor. Each day The Boock Report provides summaries and commentary on the macro data and news that matter, with analysis of what it all means and how it fits together.