Headline CPI rose .6% m/o/m, double expectations and brings the y/o/y gain to 2.5%, the highest level in almost 5 years. Yes, energy was a main factor (up 4% m/o/m and 11% y/o/y) but the rate ex energy and food jumped .3% m/o/m and 2.3% y/o/y, also above expectations. The core rate pace matches the most since September 2008 as services inflation ex energy was up .3% …
[Read more...] about Hot CPI, Industrial Production, Jan Retail Sales, NY Manufacturing and more…
Rate hike odds for March were at 34% before the CPI (they rose after), really not much of a change from the 30% before we heard from Yellen. I believe this is less due to what she said (she made it clear that they want to raise rates sooner rather than later) but more due to her reputation as the ultimate dove. The track record speaks for itself. Thus, with the market …
Janet Yellen is NOT committing herself to a March rate hike but she’s doing what I thought she should do and that is put March on the table (try to get rate hike odds nearer to 50%) vs a market that essentially took it off (with odds at 30%). She talked about the continued progress made on the employment front and the inflation stats moving to their target …
With Janet Yellen in her first long form (outside of some speeches) talk today and Q&A since the December 14th FOMC press conference, let’s go to the video tape (for all the old Warner Wolf fans) and see what’s changed since then. I’m not going to bother comparing today with the January FOMC meeting as they seem to have neutered meetings without a press conference …
[Read more...] about Yellen, Inflation, Jobs, Markets, March hike? and more…
I’m not using this comment to give an opinion on the passive vs active thing but if there is ever a clear contrarian headline of a story to mark that this whole passive thing has gone way too far and things are about to change it was this passive investing piece in Marketwatch a few days ago. In case you missed it: Here's the story. I’ll leave it at …
[Read more...] about Passive vs Active, German Inflation, Japan Growth, Fed’s Fischer and more…
Positives Initial jobless claims fell to 234k, 15k below the estimate and down from 246k last week. This is just 1k people away from matching the lowest level since 1973 and brings the 4 week average to 244k from 248k. Continuing claims, delayed by one week, rose by 15k. Mortgage applications on the week were up slightly. Purchases grew by 1.8% and are up 3.6% …
[Read more...] about 2/10 – Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events
The rally yesterday in stocks after Trump said he will unveil a “phenomenal” tax plan made sense because we wanted to see him focus on what was most important and not get distracted by other noise and tweets. There remains though the issue of what will be unveiled. Will it be the Ryan plan that includes a border adjustment tax (BAT) or will that be left out and we’ll …
Initial jobless claims fell to 234k, 15k below the estimate and down from 246k last week. This is just 1k people away from matching the lowest level since 1973 and brings the 4 week average to 244k from 248k. Continuing claims, delayed by one week, rose by 15k. Bottom line, there is no holiday to blame this time for the drop in claims. We have to assume that it’s …
[Read more...] about Jobless Claims, 30 Yr Auction, Tax Talk, Euro Bank Stocks and more…
The 10 yr note auction was weak. The yield of 2.33% was 1 bp above the when issued. The bid to cover of 2.29 was well below the one year average of 2.50 and the 2nd lowest since 2009. Direct and indirect bidders took about 70% of the auction vs the 12 month average of 72%. Bottom line, the recent back up in yields resulted in a soft auction. The recent fall in …
[Read more...] about 10 Yr Auction, Bulls on Parade, Mortgage Apps, The Pound and more…
The number of job openings in December totaled 5.5mm, a bit below the expectation of 5.58mm and little changed with 5.51mm in November. These figures compare with the 2016 average of 5.6mm. The level of hirings grew by 40k but that just kept the hiring rate unchanged at 3.6%. The number of those quitting (hopefully due to getting a better job or confidence in the …
[Read more...] about Fed and March Hike, Trade Deficit, Job Openings, 3 year Auction, Gold and more…
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor. Each day The Boock Report provides summaries and commentary on the macro data and news that matter, with analysis of what it all means and how it fits together.
