I'm really confused here by the comments from ECB member and Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy. The ECB has gone on a scorched earth monetary policy over at least the past 5 years (they went negative with rates in June 2014) to generate higher inflation closer to 2%. But today after yesterday's jump in oil prices he said "If it lasts, this latest oil shock …
The NY manufacturing index, the 1st September industrial figure to be released, fell to +2 from +4.8. The estimate was +4. This is the 2nd lowest print going back to late 2016. Within, new orders fell 3.2 pts to 3.5. Backlogs remained below zero for a 5th month in the past 6 but less so compared with August. Employment bounced back after 3 months in a row that was …
There is always something going on
I have to leave the geopolitics among Saudi Arabia, Iran, the US, etc, the supply/demand analysis of oil and how quickly the Saudi's can come back on line to others. With respect to any inflationary implications, WTI oil has traded in a $50 to $65 range all year and until it breaks out above, I don't think it will matter that much. Brent has been between $55-70 give …
Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 9/13
Positives 1) Both sides are showing some signs of bending on the trade negotiations with a combination of economic and political pressures building. 2) The preliminary September UoM consumer confidence index ticked up a touch to 92 from 89.8 and that was 1.2 pts above the forecast and which follows the 8.6 pt drop in August. Both current conditions and …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 9/13
Consumer confidence/Rates
The preliminary September UoM consumer confidence index ticked up a touch to 92 from 89.8 and that was 1.2 pts above the forecast and which follows the 8.6 pt drop in August. It’s the 3rd lowest print though since November 2016. Both current conditions and expectations were higher but UoM said “the early September rebound was not widespread across age and income …
Retail sales about as expected
Retail sales in August at the core level was as expected up .3% m/o/m while July was revised down by just one tenth to a .9% gain. Taking out auto’s and gasoline had sales up by .1% m/o/m, one tenth less than forecasted. The internals were mixed with respect to the diffusion of the sales. Sales of cars/trucks/parts rose by 1.8% m/o/m but most likely helped by all the …
Realities set in/Rates continue to move
Economic (growing pain on each side and our big mistake of taxing consumer goods in a consumer driven economy) and political realities (an upcoming election campaign) is finally driving the trade negotiations it seems that of course is taking the S&P's back to the highs. On the other hand, rates continue to rise and what does the Fed do now? An 11 yr high in core …
[Read more...] about Realities set in/Rates continue to move
German 10 yr yield back to unch
So after falling by 8 bps immediately after the ECB news, the German 10 yr bund yield is back to unchanged at .57%. And, sovereign yields elsewhere in the region are well off their lows. Combine this with another story today that the BoJ is worried about the drop in longer term interest rates, I have to believe again that we saw the lows, for now, in August in global …
Core CPI at highest level in 11 years
Headline CPI in August rose .1% m/o/m and 1.7% y/o/y as expected but the core rate surprised to the upside with a .3% m/o/m increase for the 3rd straight month. That brings the y/o/y increase to 2.4%. For those keeping score at home, that is the quickest pace of core inflation since September 2008, an 11 year at the same time all we hear about is that there is no …
Just do something
If Mario Draghi was a private sector CEO who kept relying on strategies that failed to achieve ones objective, he would have been fired years ago but because he’s a central banker he can continue to press policies that don’t work and without accountability because he’s being seen as doing something even though he’s just digging a deeper hole. So in their analysis, …
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.