Before even getting to commentary on the economy, the Fed felt the need to remind us that "The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the US economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals." On the economy the Fed said what we all know, "The coronavirus outbreak is causing …
Pending home sales
Pending home sales in March fell 20.8% m/o/m, well worse than the estimate of down 13.6%. This is measuring contract signings and as we know how the month unfolded between the virus spread, economic shut downs and market collapse, the decline is well explained. What is also a missing link here for the housing market is the important spring selling season and the mess …
Q1 GDP
GDP in Q1 contracted by 4.8% q/o/q annualized as while the US economy really only shut down in earnest in the last 2 weeks of March, activity closed enough to cause this contraction. The estimate was down 4%. Personal spending led the way with a 7.6% decline, more than the estimate of a 3.6% drop as spending on durable goods contracted by 16.1% and that on services by …
What I want to hear about today
What I want to hear from the Fed today is details. They've laid out a bunch of new purchase programs conducted via directly or indirectly (special purpose vehicles) and I want to get a sense of what kind of presence do they want to be in these markets, muni's, commercial paper, investment grade and high yield debt, CLO's, and ABS. Excuse me if I forgot something …
Dour now but hopeful for the coming quarters
Consumer confidence in April sunk to 86.9 from 118.8 in March which was down from 132.6 in February. As we fully understand the current state of things, the number was as expected but there was a bifurcation in the mood. The Present Situation plunged to 76.4 from 166.7, quite a dramatic move and the largest one month move on record. But there is hope that it can't get …
[Read more...] about Dour now but hopeful for the coming quarters
Mr. Brightside but also now Mr. Realistic
Vaccine hope with the story out of Oxford University yesterday that starting at the end of May they will be doing human trials on 6,000 people with an inoculation that proved successful on monkeys in March is helping markets as we continue to look to the other side. Also, news on the testing front is getting better as CVS and Walgreens give news on how they will role …
[Read more...] about Mr. Brightside but also now Mr. Realistic
Dallas mfr’g bad as you’d expect but what comes next?
The April Dallas manufacturing index was as bad as you'd think with plunging oil prices and many other things shutdown. It came in at -73.7 vs -70 in March and a hair off the estimate of -75. The internals were dour as well with negative signs everywhere. There was also no hope for the next 6 months as the outlook here fell to -42.1 from -39.5 and vs +18 in …
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Plans for the other side continue/BoJ goes full on
The stock market again is looking on the other side of the shutdown as we get more news of things opening up. Whether its the NBA reopening practice facilities or Tesla saying it wants its California factory to open on Wednesday or even NY and NJ saying this week they'll begin to lay out plans for a May 15th opening of some things or Germany opening some schools today …
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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 4/24
Positives 1)Every one has an opinion on the partial reopening of the Georgia economy today but it will certainly be a lesson learned on how it goes for the rest of us in coming weeks as other states announce reopening steps. We are of course also watching other states in the US and Austria, Denmark, Sweden and others, particularly those in Hong Kong, …
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Good morning
While the Gilead news was disappointing yesterday (even though we still need to hear details directly from the company as we don't know the state of the patients that were given the drug), here is the results of testing the impact of sun, heat and humidity on the virus. //www.youtube.com/watch?v=Si2zlnz8Hao. Combining this with mask wearing and the distancing …
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.