The January headline PCE rose .6% m/o/m vs the estimate of up .5% after a .2% gain in December which was revised up by one tenth. The core rate was higher by .6% m/o/m, two tenths above the forecast and December was also revised up by one tenth to a .4% increase. Versus last year headline PCE was up 5.4% while the core rate grew by 4.7%. Keep in mind that in contrast …
The incoming BoJ governor gives us his thoughts
We heard from the incoming BoJ Governor overnight where Kazuo Ueda has been called upon to dig out of the massive monetary hole his soon to be predecessor Haruhiko Kuroda dug for him. The delicate dance Ueda has to conduct is removing negative rate policy, allow the market to set the rest of the yield curve but at the same time not allow interest rates to jump too …
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New Podcast: Doug Kass, Michael Lewitt and My Interview with Jason Wild of TerrAscend
I'm happy to present a new podcast and CEO interview. In my new podcast I welcome Doug Kass, founder of Seabreeze Partners (and TheStreet contributor) and Michael Lewitt, editor of The Credit Strategist to discuss the potentially understated inflation rates, the FOMC's next moves, and how the world adjusts to a higher rate environment. We discuss their investment …
Claims data and trying to square things
Initial jobless claims totaled 192k, 8k less than expected and down from 195k last week. The 4 week average was up slightly to 191k from 190k. It was about 190k in February 2020. Continuing claims fell by 37k w/o/w to 1.654mm but off the highest since December and not far from the most since February 2022. For perspective, this was just under 1.8mm in February …
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The most sobering economic commentary I’ve heard this week
On the heels of the big upside January jobs report a few weeks ago and in stark contrast, easily the most sobering commentary I've heard all week was from the CEO of ZipRecruiter, Ian Siegel, in his shareholder letter, conference call and on CNBC yesterday. This is a major online recruiter so take note. In his letter, "With an increasingly uncertain …
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Kashkari 1, Stock Market 0?!
Yeah, rates matter. While he said this last month, and while I almost always disagree with him (except this time), the stock market is finally again heeding the message. Neel Kashkari said last month when the fed funds market was pricing in cuts in the back half of 2023 and to a reporter's point that the markets were playing chicken with the Fed he …
US PMI back above 50, barely/Housing
The S&P Global February manufacturing and services composite PMI finally got back above 50, albeit slightly after 7 months in contraction. It rose to 50.2 from 46.8 and was mostly led by a lift in the services component which got to 50.5 from 46.8. S&P Global is specifically saying the mild winter weather likely helped out. Manufacturing remained below 50 at …
Some notable stuff
Better than expected European PMI's is leading to higher interest rates in the Euro region that is spilling over to a further lift in yields in the US with the 10 yr yield now approaching 3.90%. The Eurozone February composite index rose to 53 from 50.8, solely driven by a 2.2 pt m/o/m increase in services to 53. The manufacturing component remained below 50 and …
Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events
Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events: Positives, 1)Initial jobless claims totaled 194k, little changed with the below 200k print last week of 195k. The 4 week average was little changed at 190k. 2)Core retail sales in January, the post holiday hangover, gift card used and discount and returns filled month, was better than expected with a 1.7% m/o/m …
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They are not going 50 bps but point made
The 2 yr yield is now testing that 16 yr high that 6 month and 1 yr bills achieved this week. Clearing 4.72% would do so. At 4.68% currently, it's up about 60 bps since the day before that January payroll report. While the comments yesterday from Fed president's Mester and Bullard (who don't vote this year) got notice that they each wanted a 50 bps hike …
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Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor. Each day The Boock Report provides summaries and commentary on the macro data and news that matter, with analysis of what it all means and how it fits together.