Are we there yet?

Are we there yet? //www.youtube.com/watch?v=a8k1eTEw4rQ. Larry Kudlow last night said “We are coming down to the short strokes.” The markets response though has been mixed which should tell us we’ve priced this in, for the 100th time. The Shanghai comp fell by .6%, the H share index was flat, the offshore yuan is up a touch, soybeans are higher by 1.7%, copper rose .3%, the DAX is flat, bond yields are slightly up but down for the week in Europe, the US and Japan and the S&P futures are at another high.

The only thing of note in Europe was the October CPI figure which was left unrevised with a headline gain of .7% y/o/y and core rate of up 1.1%. With Mario Draghi now gone, it amazes me that he nor anyone else on the committee ever drew the connection to the Yellow Vest anger in France over the governments hike in the gasoline price to the ECB desire to raise the rate of inflation. And no one ever asked him. Chile is now dealing with the same anger over the hike in subway fares. The central bank desire for higher inflation reveals that they are completely ignorant to the financial state of the average person. And how the Federal Reserve has avoided criticism with this whole inequality debate is very upsetting considering they are directly complicit.

Continuing to monitor the global trade flow, Indonesia said its October exports fell by 6.1%% y/o/y, better than the estimate of down 8.2%. but still lower for the 12th straight month y/o/y. Imports plunged by 16.4% y/o/y vs the forecast of down 15.4% in part to a drop in oil and gas imports but outside of that they were weak as well.

Hong Kong’s mess of a situation is again showing up in its money markets. 3 month HIBOR has now risen for the 7th straight day to the highest level since mid July.

3 MONTH HIBOR