Weekly Summary

Positives 1) October payrolls grew by 250k, 50k more than expected and there were no net revisions over the two prior months. The household survey reported a big number with a 600k increase in new jobs but because the labor force grew by a whopping 711k, the unemployment rate held at 3.7% while the U6 fell one tenth to 7.4%. Positively, most of these household job …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 11/2

This is being sent before the GDP report because I'll be in transit/meetings.   Positives 1) Pending home sales rose .5% in September, a touch above the forecast of no change and follows a 1.9% decline in August. Sales are still lower by 3.4% y/o/y and the m/o/m rise is off the lowest index level since October 2014. The chief economist of the NAR …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 10/26

  Positives 1)Initial jobless claims totaled 210k pretty much as expected and down from 215k last week. The 4 week average did tick up to 212k from 210k because a 202k print dropped out of the average. Continuing claims, delayed by a week, fell by 13k to the least since 1973. 2)The Philly manufacturing October index was 22.2 vs 22.9 last week but 2 …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 10/19

Positives 1) President’s Trump and Xi plan a get together at the G20 meeting the end of November. 2) The September consumer price index rose .1% both headline and core and that was one tenth less than expected. The y/o/y gains moderated to 2.3% headline from 2.7% in August. The core rate was up 2.2%, the same as in August. Again, core goods deflation of .3% …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 10/12

Positives 1) September hiring totaled 134k, 50k less than expected but that was completely offset and then some by the 87k person upward revision to the two previous months. After shedding 423k jobs in the household survey in August, 420k were added back in September. As that rose above the 150k increase in the size of the labor force, the unemployment rate fell 2 …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 10/5

Positives 1) The PCE inflation data for August was about as expected with a one tenth rise m/o/m at the headline level and no change at the core. The core rate was one tenth less than expected but because of rounding the y/o/y print of 2% was as forecasted. The headline gain was 2.2%. Again, the inflation story is rising prices in the service sector and falling …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 9/28

Positives 1) A story with no detail and no comments but “two people familiar with the matter said” that China has plans to cut sometime next month the average tariff rate that it puts on many of its imports. 2) Initial jobless claims totaled 201k, 9k less than expected and down from 204k last week. This brings the 4 week average down to 206k from 208k last week. …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 9/21

Positives 1) Initial jobless claims totaled 204k, 6k less than expected and little changed from 205k last week. These are the lowest levels since the late 1960’s. The 4 week average is now down to 208k. 2) The NFIB small business optimism index for August rose almost 1 pt m/o/m to 108.8 and that is the highest level in the history of this survey dating back to …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 9/14

Positive 1) Within the payroll report, Job Leavers as a percent of unemployed, a measure of those having confidence in leaving their market for greener pastures (aka, higher wages) rose to 14%, the highest since October 2000. Average hourly earnings rose by .4% m/o/m, double the estimate and the y/o/y gain was 2.9%, the best since April 2009. Average weekly …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 9/7