Weekly Summary

Positives 1) Thanks to a 5 week low in the average 30 yr mortgage rate, buyers of homes stepped up as the MBA said purchases applications rose 6.5% w/o/w and 7.7% y/o/y. 2) China continues to sharply crackdown on any bank lending that is not being done at the bank level. Bank loans spiked by almost 700b m/o/m in June to 1.84T which was 300b more than expected. …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 7/13

Positives 1) The US economy added a net 213k jobs in June, 18k more than expected and the two prior months were revised up by 37k. Manufacturing jobs surprised to the upside by 21k and were key reason for June upside as was government hiring at the state and local level which added the most jobs since August 2017. The household survey said 102k jobs were …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 7/6

Positives 1) The June Chicago manufacturing index rose to 64.1 from 62.7 and that was 4 pts better than expected. While new orders rose to a 5 month high, production fell “for the 4th time since peaking in December, with firms stifled by issues higher up in the supply chain.” Backlogs grew as a result and supplier deliveries (the higher it goes, the more constrained …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 6/29

Positives 1) US retail sales in May within the so called ‘control group’ which takes out auto’s, gasoline and building materials rose .5% m/o/m, one tenth more than expected and April was revised up by two tenths and March down by one tenth. 2) Initial jobless claims totaled 218k, 5k less than expected and down from 222k last week. The 4 week average was 224k vs …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 6/15

Positives 1) The ISM services index was a better than expected 58.6, up from 56.8 in April and one point better than the estimate after a 2 pt drop in April. Supply constraints though apparent in the jump in new orders, supplier deliveries and prices paid. While the headline services PMI printed up m/o/m, the breadth weakened. Of 18 industries surveyed 14 saw growth …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 6/8

Positives 1) Payrolls expanded by 223k in May, 33k more than expected and the two prior months were up a revised 15k. The unemployment rate fell another tenth to just 3.8% as the household survey showed a job gain of 293k at the same time the size of the labor market rose just 12k. The U6 unemployment rate is now down to 7.6% which is the lowest since May 2001. …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 6/1

Positives 1) Core durable goods orders rose 1% m/o/m in April, above the estimate but was offset by a downward revision to March. Shipments were better than expected which should modestly lift Q2 GDP forecasts. 2) Thanks to the service sector, the US Markit service and manufacturing composite index rose to 55.7 in May from 54.9. The service component was up 1.1 …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 5/25

Positives Core retail sales in April (taking out auto's, gasoline and building materials) rose .4% m/o/m as expected while March was revised up by one tenth. Sales just ex autos and gasoline were as expected including a March revision. The y/o/y growth rate of core sales was 3.9%, a bit above the 5 yr average of 3.5% but still below the 5% gains in the two …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 5/18

Positives The first two this week are positive only because they didn’t exceed expectations. Consumer prices rose .2% m/o/m in April at the headline level and .1% ex food and energy. Both were one tenth below the forecast. Due to rounding the y/o/y rise of 2.5% was as expected vs 2.4% in March. The core rate was higher by 2.1%, the same as in March. Again, …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 5/11

Positives 1)After last week’s sharp drop in initial jobless claims to 209k, the lowest since 1969, they stayed pretty low this past week. They totaled 211k, 14k less than expected. This brings the four week average down to 222k from 229k and which is the lowest since 1973. Continuing claims, delayed by a week, fell by 77k to also the lowest since 1973. 2) …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 5/4