The Boock Report

Weekly Summary

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 9/23

Positives 1)The Fed continues on with its commitment to lower inflation. 2)We also saw hikes this week from the BoE (50 bps as expected), the SNB (75 bps as expected), the Riksbank (100 bps, 75 bps expected), the Norges Bank (50 bps as expected), the Bank of Indonesia (50 bps vs 25 bps that was expected), the central bank in Taiwan (12.5 bps as expected), the …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 9/16

Positives 1)Initial jobless claims totaled 213k, 14k below expectations and vs 218k last week which was revised down by 4k. The 4k week average fell to 224k from 232k and that’s the lowest since mid June. Continuing claims were 1.403mm, well under the estimate of 75k and last week was revised down by 72k to 1.401mm. 2)The August Cass Freight Transportation Index …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 9/9

Positives 1)The August ISM services PMI rose a touch to 56.9 from 56.7 in July and that was above the estimate of 55.3. That puts it about in line with the average year to date of 57.1 and it is the exact same level where it stood in February 2020. Of the 18 industries surveyed, 14 saw growth vs 13 in July, 18 in June and 14 in May. The ISM said “Growth continues, …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 9/2

Positives 1)Within the jobs report, the household survey saw a job gain of 442k and a large jump in the size of the labor force of 786k which resulted in a rise in the unemployment rate to 3.7% but for good reason. The U6 survey, also including discouraged workers and those working part time but want full time, rose 3 tenths to 7%. Also of note, ‘job leavers’ as a …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 8/19

Positives 1)Initial jobless claims totaled 250k, 14k less than expected and last week was revised down by 10k. The 4 week average fell to 247k from 250k last week and vs 248k in the week before. Continuing claims moderated to 1.437mm from 1.455m in the week before. 2)Core retail sales in July exceeded expectations with an .8% m/o/m gain in nominal terms, two …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 8/12

Positives 1)Headline CPI was flat m/o/m in July and up by .3% m/o/m at the core level, both 2 tenths below expectations. For perspective, the comparisons were 1.3% and .7% in June. Versus last year, the headline gain was up 8.5% vs 9.1% in June and by 5.9% at the core, unchanged with June. Driven by a 7.7% drop in gasoline prices, energy fell by 4.6% m/o/m, though …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 8/5

Positives 1)The headline gain in payrolls for July far exceeded expectations with a 528k gain, more than double the estimate of 250k and the two prior months were revised up by a combined 28k. The household survey said 179k jobs were added after losing 315k in June. Combine that with the drop of 63k in the labor force and the unemployment rate fell one tenth to …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 7/22

Positives 1)Within the PMI's today in the US, Europe and Asia, price pressures are moderating.  2)The ECB ended negative interest rate policy, finally. 3)Putin turned back on Nord Stream 1, although natural gas prices were unchanged on the week.   4)Multi family starts in June totaled 577k vs 523k in May, 632k in April and 525k in March. Multi family …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 7/15

Positives 1)Gasoline prices continue to drop to the lowest in two months with the average gallon at $4.58 according to AAA. 2)With the response to inflation being a now aggressive Fed, NY Fed consumer expectations for 3 yr inflation fell to 3.6% from 3.9%. 3)Core June retail sales, stated in nominal terms, rose .8% m/o/m, 5 tenths better than expected but …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 7/8

Positives 1)June payrolls grew by 372k, 107k more than expected but mostly offset by a downward revision to the two prior months of 74k. The private sector added 381k jobs in June, as the government shed a few. Average hourly earnings rose .3% m/o/m as expected and 5.1% y/o/y but which we know remains well below the 8%+ pace of inflation. A 9% rise in average …

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