Weekly Summary

Positives 1) It does seem like the US and China are wrapping up the final details of a trade deal that has real substance to it. Question remains though, what happens with the tariffs currently in place. 2) The US economy grew by 2.6% q/o/q annualized in Q4 and that was 4 tenths more than expected. On a y/o/y basis, growth was up by 3.1%. The gain was led by …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 3/1

Positives 1) The government will not partially close again this time around. 2) Headline PPI in January was one tenth less than expected when including a revision to December. The core rate though was up .2% m/o/m as expected and 2.6% y/o/y. Trade costs jumped by .8% and transportation/warehousing was higher by .5%. 3) In December, there were 7.3mm job openings, a …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 2/15

Positives 1) In November, the US trade deficit fell to $49.3b from $55.7b in October. That’s well below the estimate of $54b but was mostly due to a 2.9% drop in imports to the lowest since June as exports fell .6%. While this will boost Q4 GDP, it’s not for the right reasons and instead is just the math. Reflecting the slowdown in key economies and regions …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 2/8

Positives 1) The Markit US manufacturing and services composite index held steady in January at 54.5 vs 54.4 last month. There was a 1.1 rise in manufacturing m/o/m off the lowest level since 2016 and a .2 pt drop in services. Markit said this on manufacturing: “The improvement…was driven by the fastest expansion of production since May 2018. New orders, employment …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 1/25

Positive 1) With the UK Parliament now likely taking some control over the negotiating process, I believe the odds of a no deal/hard Brexit shrinks to almost nothing. 2) Initial jobless claims totaled 213k, 7k less than expected and down from 216k last week for the week ended January 12th. The 4 week average fell by 1k to 221k. The BLS said that claims by …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 1/18

Positives 1) It seems that the US/China negotiations are progressing to some sort of deal as Mr. Market and the underlying economies of each are pressuring both to resolve this. 2) Thanks to lower energy prices, headline CPI was up by 1.9% y/o/y, the least since August. But, the core rate was still up 2.2% y/o/y for the 4th month in the past 5 and is up .2% …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 1/11

Positives 1) December payrolls grew by 312k, well above the estimate of 184k while net revisions to the 2 previous months were up by 58k. The household survey showed job growth of 142k which combined with an increase of 419k in the size of the labor force brought up the unemployment rate by 2 tenths to 3.9%. The all in U6 rate though held at 7.6%. The participation …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 1/4

Positives 1) Jay Powell seems to be trying to wean the economy and markets from the addiction of many years of excessively cheap money and away from this seemingly endless regime of negative real interest rates and the legacy of QE. 2) Initial jobless claims were about as expected at 214k vs 206k last week. This brings the 4 week average to 222k from 225k. …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 12/21

Positives 1) China will remove its 25% auto tariff they put in place in July on US exports and they will start buying soybeans again in January. While we are just removing a negative, let’s hope it is a precursor to the positive of something substantive agreed upon with respect to protecting technology patents. 2) After an unexpected rise in claims over the past …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 12/14

Positives 1) The November ISM services index rose .4 pts to 60.7 and that was 1.7 pts better than expected. For comparison, the 6 month average is 59.3. The breadth of the growth remained good as 17 of 18 industries surveyed saw growth, the same level for a 3rd month. This said, 15 of 18 saw growth in new orders, the least in 4 months. Also, all 18 industries said …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 12/7