Weekly Summary

Positives 1)Initial jobless claims fell to 751k from 787k and that was 20k below expectations. Continuing claims, delayed by a week, totaled 7.76mm, down from 8.37mm and about 20k less than expected. 2)The October Chicago manufacturing PMI was 61.1. That is better than the estimate of 58 but down slightly from the 62.4 seen in September. MNI said “Anecdotal …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 10/30

Positives 1)Existing home sales in September totaled 6.54mm, above the estimate of 6.3mm and up from 5.98mm in August. That is the most since May 2006 with a rise m/o/m in all 4 regions. With the decline in the number of homes for sale, months’ supply fell to just 2.7 from 3.0, the lowest in data going back to 1999. The median home price was up 14.8% to a new …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 10/23

Positives 1)Core retail sales in September rose 1.4% m/o/m, well better than the estimate of up .3% and only partially offset by a two tenths downward revision to August to -.3%. 2)Continuing claims, delayed by a week, fell 1.17mm to about 10mm with the hopes that many found jobs. Pandemic Unemployment Assistance also fell to 373k from 464k. 3)The Philly …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 10/16

Positives 1)Non defense durable goods orders ex aircraft in August rose 1.8% m/o/m, above the estimate of 1% and July was revised up by 6 tenths to a 2.5% rise. There was a headline miss relative to expectations but due to volatile aircraft orders and we know full well the situation there. 2)New home sales in August totaled 1.011mm, 120k more than expected and …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 9/25

Positives 1)The preliminary September UoM consumer confidence index rose 4.8 pts m/o/m to 78.9 and that was above the estimate of 75. Both Current Conditions and Expectations were higher. One year inflation expectations moderated by 4 tenths to 2.7% but that is still above where it was in February at 2.4%. The internal components were mixed with employment …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events

Positives 1)After little change seen in the prior 3 weeks, purchase applications to buy a home rose 2.6% w/o/w and is up a robust 40% y/o/y. Refi's were up by 3% w/o/w and 60% y/o/y. The average 30 yr mortgage rate was little changed at 3.07%, just off the record low. 2)The August NFIB small business optimism index rose 1.4 pts m/o/m to 100.2. Bill Dunkelberg, …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 9/11

Positives 1)In the August payroll report, the household survey said 3.76mm jobs were added and when combined with the labor force increase of 968k, the unemployment rate fell to 8.4%. The all in U6 rate fell to 14.2% from 16.5%. This was helped by those saying they are 'self employed' which rose by 251k and 'multiple jobholders' which rose by 182k. Census …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 9/4

Positives 1)The further reopening of the global economy was reflected in the July goods trade data where exports rose 11.8% m/o/m after a 14.3% rise in June. Imports jumped by 11.8% m/o/m after increasing 5.1% in June. On an absolute basis for perspective, exports totaled $115b vs $136b in July 2019 and vs $137b in February 2020. Imports were $194b vs $196b in …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 8/28

Positives 1)The August Markit manufacturing and services composite index rose to 54.7 from 50.3 with manufacturing rising to 53.6 from 50.9 and services at 54.8 from 50 (first time above 50 since January). With services, "greater client demand and increased marketing activity led to a renewed rise in overall new business." Export orders also improved as did …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 8/21