The Boock Report

Weekly Summary

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 11/8

Positives 1)While this potentially could be momentous (sorry for the hyperbole), disruptive, destructive to holders and possibly temporary if I’m wrong, the shrinking pile of negative yielding securities to the lowest since June is desperately needed in order to reestablish a more normal, functioning financial system. 2)The October ISM services index rose to …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 11/1

Positives 1)Payrolls in October grew by 128k, well better than the estimate of 85k and the two prior months were revised up by a net 95k. The unemployment rate ticked up by one tenth to 3.6% but because the size of the labor force grew by 325k, above the increase in the household survey of 241k (with a gain in the key 25-54 age area). The all in rate rose one …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 10/25

Positives 1).The Markit US manufacturing and services composite index in October rose a touch to 51.2 from 51 in September. Manufacturing rose .4 pts to 51.5 and services went to 51 form 50.9. Market said the lift in manufacturing was “helped by stronger growth of output, new orders and employment” and also “an increase in new export sales for the first time …

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Succinct Summary of the Week’s Events

Positives, 1)Within the housing starts data, single family permits rose 7k m/o/m to 882k which is the highest since February 2018 and just shy of the most since 2007. 2)The about 100 bps y/o/y decline in mortgage rates continues to lift the spirits of home builders as the October NAHB builder survey rose 3 pts m/o/m to 71 (the breakeven is 50), the best level …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 10/11

Positives 1).As of this writing it looks like something positive will come of the trade negotiations. 2) Initial jobless claims totaled 210k, 10k less than expected and down from 220k last week. As a print of 206k came out, the 4 week average rose 1k to 214k. Delayed by a week, continuing claims rose 29k but off the lowest since April. 3) The preliminary UoM …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 10/4

Positives 1).Payrolls in September grew by 136k, 9k less than expected but the two prior months were revised up by a net 45k. The private sector added 114k jobs vs the estimate of 130k and the two prior months were revised up by 17k. Thus, we can call the private sector data pretty much as expected when stretching out over 3 months, but averaging just 119k. It …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 9/27

Positives 1).Pending home sales in August rose 1.6% m/o/m, a touch above the estimate of up 1%. This follows a 2.5% drop in July and 2.8% rise in June. Sales gains were led by a jump out West. 2) New home sales in August totaled 713k which was well above the forecast of 659k and July was revised up by 31k to 666k and which compares with 729k in June. All of the …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 9/20

Positives 1)The Fed took another step in trying to address the manufacturing and trade driven economic moderation with its 25 bps rate cut. 2)Initial jobless totaled 208k, 5k less than expected and vs 206k last week. This brings the 4 week to 212k from 213k last week and vs 217k the week prior. 3)Existing home sales in August totaled 5.49mm, about 100k more …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 9/13

Positives 1) Both sides are showing some signs of bending on the trade negotiations with a combination of economic and political pressures building. 2) The preliminary September UoM consumer confidence index ticked up a touch to 92 from 89.8 and that was 1.2 pts above the forecast and which follows the 8.6 pt drop in August. Both current conditions and …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 9/6

Positives 1) Within the payroll report, the household survey reflected a jump of 590k jobs (the biggest contribution from those aged 25-54) which combined with an increase of 571k in the size of the labor force kept the unemployment rate unchanged at 3.7% as expected. The participation rate rose two tenths to 63.2% which does match the most since 2013 thanks to a …

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