The Boock Report

Weekly Summary

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 1/15

Positives 1)Headline CPI in December rose .4% m/o/m and the core rate was higher by .1% m/o/m. Both are exactly in line with expectations. The headline rate is now up 1.4% y/o/y and 1.6% ex food and energy. Services prices moderated further while goods prices accelerated further. 2)PPI in December rose .3% headline, one tenth core and .4% also taking out …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 1/8

Positives 1)The December ISM services index rose to 57.2 from 55.9 and that was above an expected drop to 54.5. This is right in line with the 6 month average of 57.1. The breadth was the same as last month with 14 of 18 industries seeing growth and 4 seeing a contraction (leisure/hospitality and real estate/rental/leasing, likely office not surprisingly). …

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Sentiment / Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 12/24

If you celebrate, have a great Christmas with your family. //www.youtube.com/watch?v=4riW8XnT0PI Updated market sentiment numbers: II: Bulls 62.4 vs 63.6, Bears 16.8 vs 17.2 - still extreme bullishness with Bulls above 60 and the spread above 40. AAII: Bulls 43.6 vs 43.4, Bears 22 vs 26.3 (lowest level since January 2nd)  Succinct Summation of the …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 12/11

Positives 1)The consumer mood improved in December according to the UoM consumer confidence index which rose to 81.4 from 76.9. The estimate was for little change at 76. Current Conditions rose 4.8 pts m/o/m while the Expectations component was higher by 4.2 pts. One year inflation expectations did recede to 2.3% from 2.8%. Employment expectations got back 9 …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 11/13

Positives 1)Pfizer and BioNTech’s vaccine showed 90% efficacy. 2)For the week ended Nov 7th Initial jobless claims fell to 709k from 757k and that was below the estimate of 731k. Continuing claims for the week ended Oct 31st continued to fall and this week to 6.79mm vs the estimate of 6.83mm and down from 7.22mm last week. Also positively, those filing for …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 10/30

Positives 1)Initial jobless claims fell to 751k from 787k and that was 20k below expectations. Continuing claims, delayed by a week, totaled 7.76mm, down from 8.37mm and about 20k less than expected. 2)The October Chicago manufacturing PMI was 61.1. That is better than the estimate of 58 but down slightly from the 62.4 seen in September. MNI said “Anecdotal …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 10/23

Positives 1)Existing home sales in September totaled 6.54mm, above the estimate of 6.3mm and up from 5.98mm in August. That is the most since May 2006 with a rise m/o/m in all 4 regions. With the decline in the number of homes for sale, months’ supply fell to just 2.7 from 3.0, the lowest in data going back to 1999. The median home price was up 14.8% to a new …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 10/16

Positives 1)Core retail sales in September rose 1.4% m/o/m, well better than the estimate of up .3% and only partially offset by a two tenths downward revision to August to -.3%. 2)Continuing claims, delayed by a week, fell 1.17mm to about 10mm with the hopes that many found jobs. Pandemic Unemployment Assistance also fell to 373k from 464k. 3)The Philly …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 10/2

Positives 1)In the BLS September establishment report, the private sector added 877k jobs, 27k more than forecasted. August was revised down by 5k but July was revised up by 45k. The household survey added 275k and that helped the unemployment to fall but more of the reason was the 695k person drop in the labor force. The participation rate slipped by 3 tenths …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 9/25

Positives 1)Non defense durable goods orders ex aircraft in August rose 1.8% m/o/m, above the estimate of 1% and July was revised up by 6 tenths to a 2.5% rise. There was a headline miss relative to expectations but due to volatile aircraft orders and we know full well the situation there. 2)New home sales in August totaled 1.011mm, 120k more than expected and …

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