The Boock Report

Weekly Summary

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 5/20

Positives 1)Core retail sales in April rose 1% m/o/m in nominal terms, 3 tenths more than expected. There was also the annual revision changes for the prior year plus that influenced the comparisons. Unfortunately inflation is eating much into this in real terms. 2)In the first full month covering the Russian invasion, foreigners bought a net $48.8b of US notes …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 5/13

Positives 1)Continuing claims fell to a new cycle low and fresh 50+ yr low at 1.343mm from 1.387mm last week. 2)Import prices in April were flat m/o/m vs the estimate of up .6% but half of that is explained by the 3 tenths upward revision to March which spiked by 2.9% in the month alone. Ex petro, prices rose .4%, 3 tenths less than expected and March was …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 5/6

Positives 1)Payrolls in April grew by 428k, 58k more than expected but mostly offset by a downward revision to the two prior months of 39k. 2)Continuing claims, delayed by a week in its reporting, fell to 1.38mm from 1.4mm and that is a new 50+ yr low. 3)The Fed meeting was a non event in terms of making new news. As people got way over the skis in thinking …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 4/29

Positives 1)Initial jobless claims totaled 180k as expected and down 5k from last week. The 4 week average rose to 180k vs 178k. Continuing claims were a touch above the estimate coming in at 1.408mm, just off the lowest in more than 50 years. 2)In March, personal income grew more than expected as did spending and the spending figure will likely result in an …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 4/22

Positives 1)The US Markit manufacturing April PMI index rose .9 pts to 59.7, a 7 month high. Production and new orders led the way. Supplier delivery problems though did rise again. Export orders rose to almost a one year high. Employment was higher. This is what was said on prices, “Inflationary pressures remained marked across the goods producing sector in April. …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 4/14

Positives 1)The initial April UoM consumer confidence index rose to 65.7 from 59.4 which was the lowest since 2011. The estimate was for a slight decline to 59. Almost all of the increase came from the Expectations component which rose by almost 10 pts m/o/m. Current Conditions were up slightly to 68.1 from 67.2. One yr inflation expectations held at 5.4%, the …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 4/8

Positives 1)Details on QT are out and the Fed beginning in May will start aggressively removing themselves from distorting and manipulating the markets on a daily basis. 2)Initial claims for the week ended April 2nd came in at just 166k, 34k less than expected and last week was revised down by 31k to 171k. These are amazingly low numbers but there was a …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 4/1

Positives 1)March payrolls saw a net job gain of 431k, about 60k under the estimate but completely offset, and then some, by the 95k upward revision to the two previous months. The household survey saw a monthly job gain of 736k and with an increase in the labor force of 418, the unemployment rate fell by two tenths to 3.6%. That is now just one tenth off the …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 3/25

Positives 1)The March Markit manufacturing and services PMI for the US rose to 58.5 from 55.9 with most of the help from services as this component rose 2.4 pts m/o/m. Manufacturing lifted too, by 1.2 pts to 58.5. With services, “Greater activity was driven by a marked increase in new business that was the sharpest since June 2021, as demand conditions …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 3/18

Positives 1)Finally, the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 bps to .25-.50% only days after CPI printed 7.9%. 2)Initial jobless claims fell to 214k from 229k last week and that was 6k less than expected. As a print of 249k dropped out of the calculation, the 4 week average declined to 223k from 232k. Delayed by a week in reporting, those still receiving …

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