Weekly Summary

Positives 1). The BLS said 916k jobs were added in March, well above the estimate of 660k and the two prior months were revised up by a total of 156k. A big pick up in government hiring, education related as schools reopened, was a key reason. The private sector contributed 780k of the jobs vs the estimate of 643k. The household survey saw a job add of 609k …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 4/2

Positives 1)Initial jobless claims fell to 684k from 770k and that was 46k less than expected and the lowest since the spike last March. Those collecting PUA fell to 242k from 284k. Delayed by a week, continuing claims also continued its shrink to 3.87mm from 4.13mm and below the estimate of 4mm. 2)The March US manufacturing and services PMI from Markit …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 3/26

Positives 1)As the world is quite the different place today versus a year ago, the Fed did the right thing I believe by not extending a Covid related emergency waiver for the banks. 2)Pandemic unemployment assistance fell to 282k from 479k. Continuing claims, delayed by a week, fell by 18k to 4.12mm, a fresh one yr low. Delayed by two weeks, continuing …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 3/19

Positives 1)Initial jobless claims came in at 712k, 13k less than expected but last week was revised up by 9k to 754k. The 4 week average fell to 759k from 793k as a print of 848k dropped out. PUA rose by 42k w/o/w to 478k. Delayed by a week, continuing claims totaled 4.14mm, below the estimate of 4.2mm and down from 4.34mm which was revised up by …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 3/12

Positives 1)Payrolls expanded in February by 379k which is well above the estimate of 200k and the private sector contributed 465k jobs, also vs the estimate of 200k. The two prior months were revised up by 38k at the headline level. Hiring in leisure and hospitality led the way. The household survey revealed 208k jobs were added and when combined with the 50k …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 3/5

Positives 1)Initial jobless claims fell to 730k from 841k last week (revised down by 20k) and that is down from 825k last week. This brings the 4 week average to 808k from 828k. Those getting PUA fell to 451k from 513k last week and vs 342k in the week prior. Continuing claims, delayed by a week, totaled 4.42mm from 4.52mm in the week prior. That was 40k less …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 2/26

Positives 1)Thanks in part to the late December passage of another fiscal spending plan where unemployment benefits were extended and juiced by $300 and some income earners got another $600, retail sales jumped 6% m/o/m in the 'control group' in January after a 2.4% decline in December and .9% drop in November. 2)The February NY manufacturing index rose …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 2/19

Positives 1)The January CPI rose .3% headline and was flat at the core level. The headline figure was as expected while the core rate was below the estimate of up .2%. Versus last year the headline gain is 1.4%, the same pace as in December. The core rate is higher also by 1.4% vs 1.6% in the month prior. The rise in goods prices is being offset by the …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 2/12

Positives 1)The January unemployment rate declined to 6.3% but for good and bad reasons as the household survey said 201k jobs were added while the size of the labor force fell by 406k. The more comprehensive U6 rate dropped by 6 tenths to 11.1%. Of note was the jump in average hours worked to 35 from 34.7 which then mitigates the need to hire if your existing …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 2/5