Weekly Summary

Positives 1)Initial jobless claims fell to 340k from 354k last week and that was 5k less than expected. Those filing for PUA dropped by 14k w/o/w to a 4 week low. Delayed by a week, continuing claims declined to 2.75mm which is the lowest since March 2020 from an upwardly revised 2.91mm last week. Delayed by two weeks, those still getting PUA jumped by 408k to …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 9/3

Positives 1)Wage gains are now showing up. Private sector wages/salaries rose 1% m/o/m in July after a .9% increase in June, .8% in May, .9% in April and .8% in March. That is a 13% annualized pace. Spending was up by .3% after a 1.1% increase in June. Combining the two puts the savings rate at 9.6% vs 8.8% in June and 9.8% in May. 2)The average 30 yr mortgage …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 8/27

Positives 1)Initial claims fell to 348k from 377k last week and that is 16k less than expected. Those filing for PUA rose by almost 6k to 109k. Continuing claims totaled 2.82mm from 2.90mm in the week prior and that is a fresh post covid low but was 20k more than expected. Delayed by two weeks, continuing PUA rose by 57k to 4.88mm but after a good decline in the …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 8/20

Positives 1)Payrolls in July grew by a net 943k vs the estimate of 870k but the private sector increase of 703k was exactly in line with expectations. The reason for the large public sector add was in local government education. The prior two months were revised up by a combined 119k. The household survey saw a large 1.04mm job increase and combine this with the …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 8/6

Positives 1)When taken with the revision to May, headline PCE was as expected, rising by .5% m/o/m. The core rate was higher by .4% after a .5% increase in May but that was below the estimate was for a rise of .6%. Versus last year, headline PCE is up 4.0% and the core rate by 3.5% and the easy comp excuse is going away. Core CPI is running at an annualized pace of …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 7/30

Positives 1)Delayed by two weeks, those still getting pandemic unemployment assistance fell by 553k and those continuing to receive the emergency kind declined by 576k. 2)Housing starts in June totaled 1.643mm, 53k more than anticipated, partially offset by a 26k unit downward revision to May to 1.546mm. Breaking it down, single family starts made up 1.16mm of …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 7/23

Positives 1)Core retail sales were as expected in June when we include the downward revision to May. June sales were 7 tenths more than expected but May was revised down by the same 7 tenths. In dollars, core retail sales were $341.5b in June vs $342.7 in April and vs $344.1b in March when the stimulus checks were mailed. 2)Those filing under pandemic …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 7/16

Positives 1)Those filing for PUA fell to 99k from 114k. Continuing claims were down by 145k from the week prior and at 3.34mm, it is the lowest since pre Covid. Those still receiving PUA declined by 111k and that is the 7th week in the past 8 that has seen a drop to 5.8mm. Continuing emergency claims fell by 354k to under 5mm at 4.9mm, a 5 month low. 2)The …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 7/9

Positives 1)June payrolls grew by 850k, 130k more than expected with a combined upward revision of 15k to the two prior months. The private sector added 662k of this which was 57k higher than the forecast. The all in U6 rate did fall to 9.8% and that is the lowest since March 2020 and the number of job leavers jumped again which goes to the large number of job …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events: 7/2

Positives 1)Continuing claims, delayed by a week in its reporting, fell to 3.39mm from 3.52mm and that was below the estimate of 3.46mm and the lowest since last March. Delayed by two weeks, those still receiving PUA fell by another 175k. 2)Spending, when including the April revision, was as expected with income slightly better with a smaller than expected drop. …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events: 6/25