Weekly Summary

Positives 1)June new home sales totaled 776k, 76k more than expected and up from 682k in May (revised a touch higher from 676k). All four regions saw increases with the biggest percentage happening in the Northeast (many leaving NYC?). Months' supply fell to 4.7, the lowest since 2016 as builders now need to scramble to catch up. This led to a 5.6% y/o/y …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 7/24

Positives 1)Moderna, while still having to progress thru phase 3 trials, reported positive antibody results from phase 1 data and brings us a step closer to that hoped for vaccine. 2)Disney World, "the happiest place on earth", reopened.  3)Refi's bounced by 12% w/o/w and are up 107% y/o/y as mortgage rates took another leg lower, down by 7 bps on the …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 7/17

Positives 1)The Fed's balance sheet shrunk for the 4th week and is back below $7 Trillion. The main reason has been a reduction in swap lines (as they get paid back) and their repo facility usage has basically gone to zero. But, they keep on buying US Treasuries even with yields so low. 2)Initial jobless claims came in at a still high 1.31mm but that was below …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 7/10

Positives 1)The BLS said 4.8mm jobs were added back in June, well above the estimate of 3.23mm and the two prior months were revised up by a total of 90k. The biggest factor in the upside surprise was the almost 2.1mm jobs in leisure and hospitality that were brought back after an increase of 1.4mm in May and which followed a decline of 7.57 in April and drop …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 7/2

Positives 1)Reflecting the reopenings, spending rebounded in May by 8.2% m/o/m after the drop of 12.6% in April and 6.6% fall in March. With the revisions it was about as expected. The goods side led the rebound with a 14% gain after two months of 12% declines. Services bounced more modestly by 5.4% as that will take more time to recover. Personal income fell 4.2% …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 6/26

Positives 1)The June Philly manufacturing index jumped to 27.5 from -43.1 and that was well better than the forecast of -21.4. As for the 6 month outlook, it rose to 66.3 from 49.7 as optimism grows with the reopening. Capital spending plans also improved. 2)The June NY manufacturing index was well better than expectations at -.2 vs the forecast of -29.6 …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 6/19

Positives 1)While still very high, initial jobless totaled 1.54mm, about in line with the estimate of 1.55mm and down from a revised 1.9mm last week (up 20k from the initial). This is the 10th week in a row of moderation since the print in late March of almost 6.9mm. While these numbers have fallen they still remain high and continuing claims only fell by 339k …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events

Positives 1)The BLS said 2.5mm jobs were added in May after the huge self inflicted job losses seen in the prior months. The estimate was for another loss of 7.5mm and the BLS said "These improvements in the labor market reflected a limited resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed in March and April due to the coronavirus pandemic and efforts …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 6/5

Positives 1)Purchase applications to buy a home continued higher according to the MBA. They rose 8.6% w/o/w and are now up 8.7% y/o/y with mortgage rates still sitting around record lows. Refi's were unchanged w/o/w but still up 176% y/o/y. 2)New home sales in April totaled 623k, well better than the estimate of 480k and actually up from 619k in March but …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 5/29

Positives 1)All 50 states have at least something reopened, even NJ and NY. 2)This is still a really poor number but better than what was seen in April (anything is). The May Markit manufacturing and services PMI bounced to 36.4 from 27 with most of the gain coming from the services sector which rose to 36.9 from 26.7. Manufacturing improved by 3.7 pts to …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 5/22