Weekly Summary

Positives 1) Headline CPI for April rose .3% m/o/m while the core rate was higher by .1%, both were one tenth less than expected. The y/o/y core rate though due to rounding was up 2.1% as expected and up from 2% in March. The headline rate was higher by 2% y/o/y vs 1.9% last month. Services inflation of 2.8% ex energy offset the decline in core goods pricing, …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 5/10

Positives 1) April payrolls grew by 263k, well more than the estimate of 190k and there were upward revisions of a net 16k to the prior two months. The government added the most amount of jobs since August 2018. Looking at the private sector only saw a job gain of 236k vs the estimate of 188k. Average wage growth for non supervisory production workers held at 3.4% …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 5/3

Positives 1) GDP in Q1 rose 3.2%, much better than the estimate of up 2.3%. The upside beat was helped by net trade (exports jumped while imports contracted sharply) and inventories which combined contributed almost 170 bps of the rise. Personal spending though, the biggest component was up just 1.2%, two tenths more than expected as an increase in spending on …

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 Positives 1) March retail sales rebounded with a core gain of 1%, 6 tenths more than expected. Smoothing out the down December, up January, down February and up March, on a dollar basis we're just above (.2%) where sales totaled in November. 2) Initial jobless claims fell to just 192k, 13k less than expected and down from 197k last week. The 4 week average is now …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 4/18

Positives 1) Initial jobless claims for the week ended April 6th broke below 200k at 196k. That was 14k below the forecast and down from 204k last week (revised from 202k). That’s the lowest print since I was born. This brings the 4 week average down to 207k from 214k and that is also the lowest since 1969. Continuing claims, delayed by a week, fell to the lowest …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 4/12

 Positives 1) March payrolls grew by 196k, 19k more than expected while the two prior months were revised up by 14k. The private sector component though had less of an upside print as jobs here rose by 182k, 5k more than expected. The household survey saw a loss of 201k jobs after a gain of 255k in the month prior. Because the labor force shrunk by 224k, the …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 4/5

 Positives 1) Initial jobless claims totaled 211k, 9k less than expected and last week was revised down by 5k to 216k (as part of annual revisions). This downtick brings the 4 week average lower to 217k from 221k last week and that’s the lowest since mid January. Delayed by a week, continuing claims rose 13k after a similar drop in the week prior. 2) The MBA …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 3/29

Positives 1) It does seem like the US and China are wrapping up the final details of a trade deal that has real substance to it. Question remains though, what happens with the tariffs currently in place. 2) The US economy grew by 2.6% q/o/q annualized in Q4 and that was 4 tenths more than expected. On a y/o/y basis, growth was up by 3.1%. The gain was led by …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 3/1

Positives 1) The government will not partially close again this time around. 2) Headline PPI in January was one tenth less than expected when including a revision to December. The core rate though was up .2% m/o/m as expected and 2.6% y/o/y. Trade costs jumped by .8% and transportation/warehousing was higher by .5%. 3) In December, there were 7.3mm job openings, a …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 2/15

Positives 1) In November, the US trade deficit fell to $49.3b from $55.7b in October. That’s well below the estimate of $54b but was mostly due to a 2.9% drop in imports to the lowest since June as exports fell .6%. While this will boost Q4 GDP, it’s not for the right reasons and instead is just the math. Reflecting the slowdown in key economies and regions …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 2/8