Weekly Summary

Positives 1)Initial jobless claims fell to 376k from 385k, but just above the estimate of 370k. The 4 week average fell to 403k from 428k. PUA fell by 2k w/o/w to 71k. Also positively, continuing claims fell by 258k after rising by 146k as hopefully some of those job openings are getting filled. Delayed by two weeks, those still receiving emergency claims fell by …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 6/11

Positives 1)ADP said a net 978k private sector jobs were added in May, well more than the estimate of 650k but partly offset by an 88k downward revision to April to 654k. The job distribution by business size was well balanced. ADP said “While goods producers grew at a steady pace, it is service providers that accounted for the lion’s share of the gains, far …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 6/4

Positives 1)As we head into Memorial Day Weekend, I just wanted to send this link again as we should all be grateful that we (specifically our genius scientists, doctors and healthcare workers) essentially conquered Covid, //www.youtube.com/watch?v=02G1IIgyhfo and it’s time to live life again. 2)Initial jobless claims fell to 406k, 20k less than expected …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 5/28

Positives 1)Initial jobless claims fell to 473k from a revised 507k last week. The estimate was 490k while last week was revised from 498k. The 4 week average fell to 534k from 562k. PUA was little changed at 104k from 102k. Delayed by a week, continuing claims fell by 45k w/o/w but has essentially flat lined over the past 4 weeks. 2)The number of job openings …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events: 5/14

Positives 1)Offsetting somewhat the big jobs disappointment was the increase in hours worked to 35 from 34.9 which matches the most since at least 2006 that I have data on. Also, the participation rate ticked up by 2 bps to 61.7%, matching the highest since March 2020 although remains well below the 63.4% print in January 2020. The employment to population ratio …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events: 5/7

Positives 1)Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan hopefully is elevating the taper discussion amongst his colleagues with his expression today that “we’re now observing excesses and imbalances in markets” and “we’ve got real excesses in the housing market…It’s not yet the speculative situation that we had back in ’07, ’08 and ’09, but I think it bears watching and …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 4/30

Positives 1)Initial jobless claims fell to 576k from 769k (revised from 744k) and that was well below the estimate 700k. The 4 week average fell to 683k from 730k. Pandemic unemployment assistance fell to 132k from 152k. Delayed by a week, continuing claims were little changed at 3.73mm vs 3.727mm in the week prior. Delayed by two weeks, those still receiving …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 4/16

Positives 1). The BLS said 916k jobs were added in March, well above the estimate of 660k and the two prior months were revised up by a total of 156k. A big pick up in government hiring, education related as schools reopened, was a key reason. The private sector contributed 780k of the jobs vs the estimate of 643k. The household survey saw a job add of 609k …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 4/2