Weekly Summary

Positive 1) With the UK Parliament now likely taking some control over the negotiating process, I believe the odds of a no deal/hard Brexit shrinks to almost nothing. 2) Initial jobless claims totaled 213k, 7k less than expected and down from 216k last week for the week ended January 12th. The 4 week average fell by 1k to 221k. The BLS said that claims by …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 1/18

Positives 1) It seems that the US/China negotiations are progressing to some sort of deal as Mr. Market and the underlying economies of each are pressuring both to resolve this. 2) Thanks to lower energy prices, headline CPI was up by 1.9% y/o/y, the least since August. But, the core rate was still up 2.2% y/o/y for the 4th month in the past 5 and is up .2% …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 1/11

Positives 1) December payrolls grew by 312k, well above the estimate of 184k while net revisions to the 2 previous months were up by 58k. The household survey showed job growth of 142k which combined with an increase of 419k in the size of the labor force brought up the unemployment rate by 2 tenths to 3.9%. The all in U6 rate though held at 7.6%. The participation …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 1/4

Positives 1) Jay Powell seems to be trying to wean the economy and markets from the addiction of many years of excessively cheap money and away from this seemingly endless regime of negative real interest rates and the legacy of QE. 2) Initial jobless claims were about as expected at 214k vs 206k last week. This brings the 4 week average to 222k from 225k. …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 12/21

Positives 1) China will remove its 25% auto tariff they put in place in July on US exports and they will start buying soybeans again in January. While we are just removing a negative, let’s hope it is a precursor to the positive of something substantive agreed upon with respect to protecting technology patents. 2) After an unexpected rise in claims over the past …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 12/14

Positives 1) The November ISM services index rose .4 pts to 60.7 and that was 1.7 pts better than expected. For comparison, the 6 month average is 59.3. The breadth of the growth remained good as 17 of 18 industries surveyed saw growth, the same level for a 3rd month. This said, 15 of 18 saw growth in new orders, the least in 4 months. Also, all 18 industries said …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 12/7

Positives 1) There is an opportunity Saturday night to at least postpone further tariffs as both sides seem interested in some détente. Even Robert Lighthizer is optimistic. 2) Jay Powell gave himself some breathing room and flexibility in terms of the timing of achieving his goal of an eventual 3%-ish fed funds rate. 3) The headline PCE inflation deflator …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 11/30

Positives 1) The average 30 yr US mortgage rate was little changed w/o/w at 5.16%, just off the 8 1/2 year high of 5.17% last week. Purchases did rebound by 3.1% w/o/w off the lowest level since February 2017 but they are down 4.8% y/o/y. 2) Existing home sales in October totaled 5.22mm, a touch above the estimate of 5.2mm and up from 5.15mm in September. The …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 11/23

Positives 1) The FOMC statement was as uneventful as can be but that itself is a message from the Fed that nothing that occurred in October is going to alter their interest in raising rates again in December. 2) Initial jobless claims at 214k was as expected and little changed from 215k last week. The 4 week average also held at 214k. Continuing claims, delayed …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 11/9