Weekly Summary

Positives 1) A story with no detail and no comments but “two people familiar with the matter said” that China has plans to cut sometime next month the average tariff rate that it puts on many of its imports. 2) Initial jobless claims totaled 201k, 9k less than expected and down from 204k last week. This brings the 4 week average down to 206k from 208k last week. …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 9/21

Positives 1) Initial jobless claims totaled 204k, 6k less than expected and little changed from 205k last week. These are the lowest levels since the late 1960’s. The 4 week average is now down to 208k. 2) The NFIB small business optimism index for August rose almost 1 pt m/o/m to 108.8 and that is the highest level in the history of this survey dating back to …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 9/14

Positive 1) Within the payroll report, Job Leavers as a percent of unemployed, a measure of those having confidence in leaving their market for greener pastures (aka, higher wages) rose to 14%, the highest since October 2000. Average hourly earnings rose by .4% m/o/m, double the estimate and the y/o/y gain was 2.9%, the best since April 2009. Average weekly …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 9/7

Positives 1) In coming weeks, we’ll watch a lower level get together between Chinese and US officials that hopefully will be more than just a coffee talk about the possibility of higher level trade talks. 2) Initial jobless claims totaled 212k, 3k less than expected and down 2k from last week. Due to a print of 208k dropping out of the average, the 4 week …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 8/17

Positives 1) Initial jobless claims totaled 213k, 7k less than expected and down from 219k last week. The 4 week average fell by 1k to 214k which hovers just above the lowest level since 1969. Continuing claims, delayed by a week, rose 29k after falling by 21k last week. 2) US producer prices in July were unchanged m/o/m instead of rising .2% as expected. The …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 8/10

POSITIVES 1) July payrolls grew by 157k, 25k below expectations but was more than offset by a combined upward revision in the two prior months of 59k. The private sector added 170k, 20k less than expected but June alone was revised up by 32k. I did forget to mention in my previous note on this though, the service sector added the least amount of jobs since …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 8/3

Positives 1) US GDP growth in Q2 q/o/q annualized was above 4% for the first time since 2014 at 4.1%. Consumer spending and exports (mostly soybeans) were the main contributors to growth with also help from government spending. Overall investment was little changed as gains in business spending and structures was offset by a decline in residential construction. …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 7/27

Positives 1) Jay Powell's testimony and Q&A in front of Congress was uneventful but short rates are closing the week at fresh 10 year highs as for now he will keep on keeping on. No need yet to commit to a December hike. Rate hike odds are about 60% for two more. 2) Initial jobless claims totaled 207k, 13k below estimates and down from 215k last week. This is …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 7/20

Positives 1) Thanks to a 5 week low in the average 30 yr mortgage rate, buyers of homes stepped up as the MBA said purchases applications rose 6.5% w/o/w and 7.7% y/o/y. 2) China continues to sharply crackdown on any bank lending that is not being done at the bank level. Bank loans spiked by almost 700b m/o/m in June to 1.84T which was 300b more than expected. …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 7/13

Positives 1) The US economy added a net 213k jobs in June, 18k more than expected and the two prior months were revised up by 37k. Manufacturing jobs surprised to the upside by 21k and were key reason for June upside as was government hiring at the state and local level which added the most jobs since August 2017. The household survey said 102k jobs were …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 7/6