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Central Banks

September 6, 2019 By Peter Boockvar

Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 9/6

Positives 1) Within the payroll report, the household survey reflected a jump of 590k jobs (the biggest contribution from those aged 25-54) which combined with an increase of 571k in the size of the labor force kept the unemployment rate unchanged at 3.7% as expected. The participation rate rose two tenths to 63.2% which does match the most since 2013 thanks to a …

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March 22, 2019 By Peter Boockvar

Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 3/22

Positives 1) Initial jobless claims totaled 221k, 4k less than expected and down from 230k last week (revised up by 1k). This brings the 4 week average to 225k, up 1k because a 217k print falls out of the average. Continuing claims, delayed by a week, fell by 27k after rising by 19k last week. 2) The March Philly manufacturing index rose to 13.7 after going …

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November 27, 2017 By Peter Boockvar

Wow, That Was Hawkish

Dallas Fed President and voting member Robert Kaplan was particularly hawkish today. This is just a few weeks after he said he was ‘lightly penciling in a rate hike’ next month. He reiterated the Fed view that the “US economy is at or near full employment” but also said “While real wage growth has been sluggish, we are beginning to see welcome signs of increasing …

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November 22, 2017 By Peter Boockvar

The FOMC Minutes, I’m Now Ready to Take a Nap

With general agreement on the part of FOMC members that the labor market is operating near or at full employment, the eyes of followers thus shifts to what they think about inflation. My head is spinning on the commentary and I just can’t understand the obsession of 2%. The FOMC minutes said “Many participants judged that much of the recent softness in core inflation …

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November 2, 2017 By Peter Boockvar

A dovish BoE hike

We got a dovish hike from the BoE as it seems they will go really slow in raising rates further from here. They think inflation peaks right now at 3% and they expect it to “fall back over the next year.” They also harped highlighted “the decision to leave the EU is having a noticeable impact on the economic outlook.” While they acknowledge “the overshoot of …

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November 2, 2017 By Peter Boockvar

A Bit of Everything

Assume at 8am est the BoE will finally get off its arse and hike rates by 25 bps more than one year after it cut by the same amount because they feared the end of the world after the Brexit vote. The only question is whether they plan a few more in 2018 or this is a one and done for a while. The 2 yr Gilt yield is at a crucial spot at .50%. It matches the same level …

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November 1, 2017 By Peter Boockvar

The FOMC said…

The FOMC statement was almost identical to the one in September. They said “economic activity has been rising at a solid rate despite hurricane related disruptions” after saying in September that “economic activity has been rising moderately so far this year.” On inflation they referred to non energy inflation as remaining “soft.” If they look at PCE which they do, …

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October 27, 2017 By Peter Boockvar

Confidence / Powell

Confidence The final October UoM confidence index was 100.7 as expected, down slightly from the preliminary one of 101.1 but up from 100.7 in September and the best since 2004. Both components were higher m/o/m and one year inflation expectations came in at 2.4% vs 2.3% initially but down from 2.7% in September. This was lowered in part to the 2nd weakest reading in …

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October 18, 2017 By Peter Boockvar

Beige Book bullet points

Here are important bullet points from the just released Fed Beige Book and I underlined some key parts: “Reports from all 12 Federal Reserve Districts indicated that economic activity increased in September through early October, with the pace of growth split between modest and moderate.” “Employment growth was modest on balance, with most Districts …

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September 26, 2017 By Peter Boockvar

I had to splash water on my face

I had to splash water on my face because I think I’m hearing a more hawkish Janet Yellen in her speech today. There is no question that dovishness runs thick as she is questioning their ability to get inflation and stabilize it around 2% (for reasons she gave like the internet and labor market dynamics) but she is also saying that “it would be imprudent to keep …

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About Peter

Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor. Each day The Boock Report provides summaries and commentary on the macro data and news that matter, with analysis of what it all means and how it fits together.

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Disclaimer - Peter Boockvar is an independent economist and market strategist. The Boock Report is independently produced by Peter Boockvar. Peter Boockvar is also the Chief Investment Officer of Bleakley Financial Group, LLC a Registered Investment Adviser. The Boock Report and Bleakley Financial Group, LLC are separate entities. Content contained in The Boock Report newsletters should not be construed as investment advice offered by Bleakley Financial Group, LLC or Peter Boockvar. This market commentary is for informational purposes only and is not meant to constitute a recommendation of any particular investment, security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy. The views expressed in this commentary should not be taken as advice to buy, sell or hold any security. To the extent any of the content published as part of this commentary may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person. No chart, graph, or other figure provided should be used to determine which securities to buy or sell. Consult your advisor about what is best for you.

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