Positives 1) Within the payroll report, the household survey reflected a jump of 590k jobs (the biggest contribution from those aged 25-54) which combined with an increase of 571k in the size of the labor force kept the unemployment rate unchanged at 3.7% as expected. The participation rate rose two tenths to 63.2% which does match the most since 2013 thanks to a …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 9/6
Positives 1) Initial jobless claims totaled 221k, 4k less than expected and down from 230k last week (revised up by 1k). This brings the 4 week average to 225k, up 1k because a 217k print falls out of the average. Continuing claims, delayed by a week, fell by 27k after rising by 19k last week. 2) The March Philly manufacturing index rose to 13.7 after going …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 3/22
Dallas Fed President and voting member Robert Kaplan was particularly hawkish today. This is just a few weeks after he said he was ‘lightly penciling in a rate hike’ next month. He reiterated the Fed view that the “US economy is at or near full employment” but also said “While real wage growth has been sluggish, we are beginning to see welcome signs of increasing …
With general agreement on the part of FOMC members that the labor market is operating near or at full employment, the eyes of followers thus shifts to what they think about inflation. My head is spinning on the commentary and I just can’t understand the obsession of 2%. The FOMC minutes said “Many participants judged that much of the recent softness in core inflation …
[Read more...] about The FOMC Minutes, I’m Now Ready to Take a Nap
We got a dovish hike from the BoE as it seems they will go really slow in raising rates further from here. They think inflation peaks right now at 3% and they expect it to “fall back over the next year.” They also harped highlighted “the decision to leave the EU is having a noticeable impact on the economic outlook.” While they acknowledge “the overshoot of …
Assume at 8am est the BoE will finally get off its arse and hike rates by 25 bps more than one year after it cut by the same amount because they feared the end of the world after the Brexit vote. The only question is whether they plan a few more in 2018 or this is a one and done for a while. The 2 yr Gilt yield is at a crucial spot at .50%. It matches the same level …
The FOMC statement was almost identical to the one in September. They said “economic activity has been rising at a solid rate despite hurricane related disruptions” after saying in September that “economic activity has been rising moderately so far this year.” On inflation they referred to non energy inflation as remaining “soft.” If they look at PCE which they do, …
Confidence The final October UoM confidence index was 100.7 as expected, down slightly from the preliminary one of 101.1 but up from 100.7 in September and the best since 2004. Both components were higher m/o/m and one year inflation expectations came in at 2.4% vs 2.3% initially but down from 2.7% in September. This was lowered in part to the 2nd weakest reading in …
Here are important bullet points from the just released Fed Beige Book and I underlined some key parts: “Reports from all 12 Federal Reserve Districts indicated that economic activity increased in September through early October, with the pace of growth split between modest and moderate.” “Employment growth was modest on balance, with most Districts …
I had to splash water on my face because I think I’m hearing a more hawkish Janet Yellen in her speech today. There is no question that dovishness runs thick as she is questioning their ability to get inflation and stabilize it around 2% (for reasons she gave like the internet and labor market dynamics) but she is also saying that “it would be imprudent to keep …
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.
