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March 20, 2023 By Peter Boockvar

A few things going on

UBS stock is down about 4% (well off its lows), we see CS stock at almost a zero though some value still there but notably was the complete zero the contingent convertible securities (lowest level of bank debt and CS had $17b worth of them) of CS are being assigned and are supposed to be senior to the equity. The Euro STOXX bank index is lower by 1.5% …

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March 17, 2023 By Peter Boockvar

Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events

Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events: Positives, 1)It’s Friday and the market is closed for the next two days. 2)Putting aside the intense bailout debate and sorry for stock and bond holders of SVB and SBNY, VC funded companies and others live to fight another day. 3)Initial claims fell back below 200k to 192k, 13k below expectations and vs 212k last …

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March 17, 2023 By Peter Boockvar

Confidence falters BEFORE SVB news

The initial March UoM consumer confidence index fell to 63.4 from 67 and that was below the estimate of no change. Both Current Conditions and the Expectation components were lower m/o/m by similar amounts. One yr inflation expectations fell below 4% to 3.8% (lowest since April 2021 but still above the 20 yr pre Covid average of 2.9%) from 4.1%, helped by lower …

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March 17, 2023 By Peter Boockvar

That was strange/3 yrs before the ring comes on average/Other

While I'm glad to not see another bank failure in First Republic, what a weird way to save a bank. Imagine if Janet Yellen called Walmart, Costco, Target and Amazon and encouraged them to buy stuff from another retailer, whose business has been teetering, each month to keep them alive. No one wants to buy First Republic? No one wants to take their marks on their …

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March 16, 2023 By Peter Boockvar

ECB, intraday response in German 2 yr and euro and Fed rate hike odds

Here is an intraday chart of the German 2 yr yield that reflects the immediate spike after the ECB announced the 50 bps hike but come down after when they didn’t commit to anything more past this meeting, with it completely ‘data dependent’ from here. QT has begun. The euro too jumped but now is at the low of the day vs the USD. As for what this means for the Fed, …

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March 16, 2023 By Peter Boockvar

Claims steady, further mfr’g weakness, multi family strength, and import price softness

Initial claims fell back below 200k to 192k, 13k below expectations and vs 212k last week. The 4 week average was little changed at 197k. After rising by 64k last week to near the highest since last February, continuing claims fell by 29k. The bottom line again is companies are holding on to employees after a few years of difficulty in finding many of them. In …

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March 16, 2023 By Peter Boockvar

A few notable things

While it's easy for the rest of us to say, 'Yeah, the Swiss government will just take over/backstop Credit Suisse,' and while the SNB is lending them $54b, we have to understand just how big Credit Suisse and UBS are relative to the Swiss economy to understand that it is not that easy. The Swiss economy is about $800b and Credit Suisse has about $570b in assets (down …

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March 15, 2023 By Peter Boockvar

Home builder sentiment, the new issue of access to credit

The March NAHB home builder index rose 2 pts m/o/m to 44 and that was 4 pts above expectations, though still below the breakeven of 50. Present conditions were up 2 pts to just below 50 at 49. The outlook though slipped 1 pt to 47 and prospective buyers traffic remained well under 50 at 31 but that is up 3 pts m/o/m. Putting aside the affordability challenge that …

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March 15, 2023 By Peter Boockvar

Wholesale prices fall again/Mfr’g still contracting/Retail sales mixed

February PPI fell one tenth headline unexpectedly as the estimate was for up 3 tenths. And, this comes off a downward revision of 4 tenths to January to up 3 tenths. The core rate was flat m/o/m instead of rising by .4% as forecasted and January was revised lower by 4 tenths. The y/o/y headline gain slowed to 4.6% from 5.7% last month. The core rate was higher by 4.4% …

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March 15, 2023 By Peter Boockvar

What’s going on

It was about 4:45am est when the Saudi National Bank said 'no more' to more investment in its already 10% holding in Credit Suisse. While CS Chairman Axel Lehmann today said that help from the Swiss government "isn't a topic", how can it not be at this point notwithstanding the "strong capital ratios, a strong balance sheet" that Lehmann reiterated today? The Qatar …

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About Peter

Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor. Each day The Boock Report provides summaries and commentary on the macro data and news that matter, with analysis of what it all means and how it fits together.

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Disclaimer - Peter Boockvar is an independent economist and market strategist. The Boock Report is independently produced by Peter Boockvar. Peter Boockvar is also the Chief Investment Officer of Bleakley Financial Group, LLC a Registered Investment Adviser. The Boock Report and Bleakley Financial Group, LLC are separate entities. Content contained in The Boock Report newsletters should not be construed as investment advice offered by Bleakley Financial Group, LLC or Peter Boockvar. This market commentary is for informational purposes only and is not meant to constitute a recommendation of any particular investment, security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy. The views expressed in this commentary should not be taken as advice to buy, sell or hold any security. To the extent any of the content published as part of this commentary may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person. No chart, graph, or other figure provided should be used to determine which securities to buy or sell. Consult your advisor about what is best for you.

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