I first wanted to correct myself in the morning note that the Bank of Canada raised rates by 50 bps to 4.25%, not 25 bps as stated. Initial jobless claims totaled 230k, spot on with expectations and up from 226k last week (revised up by 1k). The 4 week average was 230k vs 229k last week and vs 227k in the week prior. That is a 3 month high. Delayed by a week, …
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“Reality will catch up”/Autos/Sentiment/Central Bank moves
One more thing on the private REIT story. This is predominantly a net asset valuation issue relative to the sharp adjustments that have taken place in the public REIT sector and the redemptions are just a result of that. Some can blame the Asians for beginning the process but it happens to be rather prudent to sell an asset up almost 10% this year when its public …
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Private vs public from here/A bunch of good anecdotes on the state of things
I've been following Blackstone REIT closely over the past few years for business/client reasons. I first reached out to them in mid February questioning their valuation techniques after seeing the initial rise in interest rates and drop in publicly traded REIT's but rise in their valuation. I followed up in June and recently met with them again asking the same …
[Read more...] about Private vs public from here/A bunch of good anecdotes on the state of things
‘Where everybody knows your name’
As an avid watcher of Cheers back in the day, I was sad to see the news on Kirstie Alley. A funny scene, //www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=1ymI7xjYPxU. The Business Roundtable released its Q4 CEO Economic Outlook Survey which tracks cap ex, employment and expectations for sales in the coming quarters. The index fell 11 pts q/o/q to 73 and they …
Which one is it?
The November ISM services index rose to 56.5 from 54.4 in October and that was also 3 pts better than expected. It compares with 56.7 in September. The internals though were pretty mixed. New orders fell .5 pt to 56 and that is a 5 month low and backlogs were down by .4 pts to 51.8, the weakest since March 2021. Inventories rose to a 6 month high but are still below …
I need you here vs not so much anymore there
On the heels of Friday's payroll report, I want to make sure you saw the WSJ article which was in Friday's paper titled "Layoffs Hit White-Collar Workers as Amazon, Walmart, Others Cut Jobs...Recent wave of job cuts marks departure from previous downturns when blue-collar workers were shed first." I'm going to distill this even further. Labor demand and shortages …
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Powell talked about wages, market ignored but are listening today
Payrolls in November expanded by 263k, 63k more than anticipated, partly offset by a downward revision to the two prior months of 23k. Most of the beat was in the government sector as private payrolls rose by 221k, 36k above the estimate. The negative for a 2nd straight month was the drop of 138k in the household survey after a 328k job loss in October. The reason …
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Some notable things
Ahead of the jobs report, this was an upsetting story I read yesterday from Marketwatch in an article titled "Hardship withdrawals from 401k's reach 'concerning' all time high, Vanguard says." The story read, "Amid stubbornly high inflation, a record breaking share of Americans are turning their 401k accounts into emergency piggy banks, according to Vanguard. …
The savings well is running dry/ISM mfr’g below 50
A very important stat I forgot to mention on the 8:30am data was the US personal savings rate which is now down to just 2.3%. The last time I saw something less was 2.1% in July 2005 in data going back to 1959. The bottom line is easy but unfortunate here, the savings well is running dry and why credit card usage, as mentioned by a few retailers over the past few …
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One more thing on inflation
Apartment List reported its National Rent report covering November and its index fell by 1% m/o/m, “marking the 3rd straight m/o/m decline, and the largest single month dip in the history of our index, going back to 2017. The timing of the recent cooldown in the rental market is consistent with the typical seasonal trend, but its magnitude has been notably sharper …
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor. Each day The Boock Report provides summaries and commentary on the macro data and news that matter, with analysis of what it all means and how it fits together.