The headline gain in payrolls for July far exceeded expectations with a 528k gain, more than double the estimate of 250k and the two prior months were revised up by a combined 28k. The household survey said 179k jobs were added after losing 315k in June. Combine that with the drop of 63k in the labor force and the unemployment rate fell one tenth to 3.5%, matching the …
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“We’ll have the believers and the builders”
If the 1% excise tax on stock buybacks makes it into the final Congressional bill mistakenly titled as "Inflation Reduction", is the stock buyback party over as the US government wants to punish a legitimate allocation of capital (whether wisely done or not at the corporate level)? When the cost of capital goes up after a stretch of flowing liquor we get to see who …
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Claims continue higher
Initial jobless claims were 260k, right in line with expectations and vs 254k last week which was revised down by 2k. The 4 week average now sits at 255k vs 249k last week and vs 243k in the week before. That's the most since November. Also of note, continuing claims rose by 48k to 1.416mm and that is the highest since early April. The bottom line remains the same …
Sentiment/Max QT just ahead/BoE/Other
The emotion of market sentiment following price is obvious again. Yesterday Investors Intelligence said bulls rose to 41.1 from 38.9, and that is the most since January. It got as low as 26.5 in June. Bears fell to 30.1 from 33.3, the least since February and it got as high as 44.1 in June. Today, AAII said Bulls rose 2.9 pts to 30.6 and that is the most since June …
Outside of a mandatory shutdown, the economy is not a light switch.
The July ISM services index rose to 56.7 from 55.3 and that was better than the estimate of 53.5. It compares with 55.9 in May and 57.1 in April. New orders rose 4.3 pts to 59.9, a 4 month high while backlogs slipped to 58.3. Inventories fell 2.5 pts to 45 and below 50 for a 2nd month. The high inventory rhetoric is more on the goods side. Ahead of Friday’s payroll …
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No candy for you!
If there is a change in tone by Fed members, which yesterday certainly sparked the jump in yields, it is similar to a parent that is FINALLY telling the kids that you've had enough candy, no more. For decades the Fed always gave the markets more candy, especially when the kids cried out for it. Now, the kids are going to have to do without as long as inflation is at …
Job openings shrink/2s,10s now at 35 bps
The number of job openings in June fell to 10.7mm from 11.3mm in May. It’s the first time there has been under 11mm job openings since last November. The number of hiring’s fell for a 4th straight month m/o/m and the hiring rate fell to 4.2%, which matches the lowest since January 2021. There was another dip in the number of those quitting, although the quit rate held …
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This picture is worth a 1000 words
Fed speak begins again today post FOMC meeting as we hear from Bullard, Mester and Evans. The first two being voting members. If I hear again that a recession is not here or can't happen because the unemployment rate is low, I want to whip out the below chart going back about 80 years of the unemployment rate with the shaded area being recession. The picture is worth …
ISM mfr’g
The July ISM manufacturing index fell a hair to 52.8 from 53, a touch above the estimate of 52 but the lowest since June 2020. New orders fell to 48 and now is below 50 for a 2nd month. Backlogs were lower too, by 1.9 pts to 51.3, the lowest since June 2020. At the same time orders and backlogs are slipping, inventories are rising, both at the manufacturer level and …
A few things
Tonight the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hike interest rates by 50 bps to 1.85% and the Bank of England is expected to do the same on Thursday to 1.75%. Now that central banks outside of the Fed have picked up the pace of their monetary tightening, including the ECB, the US dollar has topped out for now. So, was the large dollar rally over the past year …
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor. Each day The Boock Report provides summaries and commentary on the macro data and news that matter, with analysis of what it all means and how it fits together.