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Initial jobless claims totaled 210k, exactly as expected and up 4k from last week. As a print of 223k dropped out of the 4 week average, it fell to 209k from 212k last week. That's the lowest since last April and continues to point to a very benign environment with respect to the pace of firing's. Continuing claims, delayed by a week, rose by 25k but after falling by …

[Read more...] about Claim benign/Big upside in Philly

Yes, we all see that the stock market is supremely confident that the short term impact of more than half of China shutting down will be quickly overcome but I still can't just ignore the US Treasury market. I know that's been a common thing to be saying now but I'm just going to say it again. The 3 month/10 yr yield spread is today inverted by 3 bps vs steeping seen …

[Read more...] about Yield curve/Sentiment/Some overseas news

Housing starts in January totaled 1.567mm, well more than the estimate of 1.428mm and December was revised up by 18k to 1.626mm. Single family starts were over 1mm for a 2nd straight month at 1.01mm and follows a jump in December to 1.073mm. Multi family starts remained robust at 557k vs 553k in the month prior and 441k in the month before that. Assume a very mild …

[Read more...] about Housing starts/PPI

While it's still so interesting how bonds and stocks are separately interpreting the current economic consequences of the virus, we still know at some point that things will return to normal. Normal though will take some time and I'm beginning to believe that we'll see price hikes in a variety of things coming out of China and which will include shipping and …

[Read more...] about A few things of note/Metals, sentiment, other

The NAHB February home builder sentiment index fell 1 pt m/o/m to a still very high 74. The estimate was for no change. Both the Present Situation and Expectations components fell 1 pt. The Prospective Buyers Traffic also fell 1 pt to 57, thus remaining well above 50. The positives and challenges remain the same for housing. Lower mortgage rates have certainly …

[Read more...] about Home builder sentiment remains high

The February NY manufacturing index, the first February industrial figure to be reported, rose to 12.9 from 4.8 and that was better than the estimate of 5.0. It is also the best since May. Much of the improvement was due to a sharp increase in inventories and new orders. Inventories jumped to 12.9 from -.7 and new orders rose to 22.1 from 6.6. Backlogs also went …

[Read more...] about NY Manufacturing index

Industrial production in January fell .3% m/o/m, one tenth more than expected and December was revised down by one tenth. The manufacturing component was as expected, falling one tenth but December was also revised lower by one tenth. For perspective, the manufacturing index closed 2019 at 104.9. It began the year at 106.4. Blame it on tariffs mostly. Utility output …

[Read more...] about IP/Consumer confidence

January core retail sales taking out auto’s, gasoline and building materials was soft, seeing no change from December vs the estimate of up .3% and December was revised down by 3 tenths and November was revised lower by one tenth. So for all the talk about a solid consumer, core retail sales since August, thus 5 months since, is down a total of .3%. January core sales …

[Read more...] about Retail sales

While it's clear that markets could care less about the economic impact of the virus on the assumption that it goes away soon and we'll be back to where we were, I just wanted to put some numbers behind the influence of China on the rest of us in terms of trade. These numbers are as of 2017 that I have full data on so it is a bit stale but you get the point of the …

[Read more...] about Trade with China/Fed’s balance sheet