I finally got the II #s and Bulls rose 3 pts to 53.5 while Bears were little changed at 23.7 vs 23.8 last week. The Bull/Bear spread of 29.8 is the biggest since late February. Bottom line, any Bull read above 50 reflects extended sentiment while above 55 is stretched and a read higher than 60 is extreme. Thus, a level of complacency is setting in. The May ISM …
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ADP jobs figure
ADP said 2.76mm private sector jobs were lost in May after a decline of 19.56mm in April. That was well less than the estimate of a decline of 9mm jobs but likely due to methodology and timing issues rather than anything else. Friday’s private sector estimate with the BLS figure is down 8mm. Either way, this is all old news in that as businesses are reopening many of …
A bunch of things
The most common question over the past few days is how can the markets continue to rally in the face of everything, especially with wide spread protesting getting violent and destructive. My answer is completely dispassionate strictly with respect to the protests and that is the market doesn't think it lasts long and thus won't have any notable impact on S&P 500 …
Repost with correct DXY chart
The German DAX is leading the way today as Chancellor Merkel is said to be lining up another round of fiscal spending. That story came out a few days ago but more details might be revealed today with this tranche totaling between 50-100b euros. The money could be utilized in a variety of ways such as a 'cash for clunkers', adding to the wage pay support program in …
Dollar index is no higher than level of 5 yrs ago
The German DAX is leading the way today as Chancellor Merkel is said to be lining up another round of fiscal spending. That story came out a few days ago but more details might be revealed today with this tranche totaling between 50-100b euros. The money could be utilized in a variety of ways such as a 'cash for clunkers', adding to the wage pay support program in …
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ISM mfr’g
The May ISM manufacturing index rose to 43.1 from 41.5 and that was .7 pts below the estimate and vs 49.1 in March. New orders rose 4.7 pts to 31.8 after falling by 15.1 pts in April. Backlogs rose a slight .4 pts to 38.2. Employment was higher by 4.6 pts to 32.1 while export orders rose by a similar amount to 39.5. Supplier deliveries, which has kept the …
A few things
It certainly was an unsettling and disturbing weekend watching all the goings on but the market is looking past it and focused more on the broad reopenings happening throughout the country. Obviously if the protests continue for weeks on end and thus disrupts and delays the reopenings in the major cities or even causes a rise in virus spread, the market would have to …
Chicago MNI/Consumer Confidence
There was no rebound in the Chicago regions manufacturing index for May. It fell to 32.3 from 35.4 while the estimate was 40. That’s the weakest since March 1982. New orders fell to the least since July 1980 and backlogs are the lowest since March 2009. Employment did rise after April’s fall. “However, anecdotal evidence was mixed with some firms stating they had to …
Quick comments on the data
This is data in the eye of the shutdown storm in April so take it with a grain of salt. Personal income spiked by 10.5% m/o/m mostly because of government cash handouts and personal spending fell a sharp 13.6% because everyone only spent on necessities. The combination brought the savings rate to 33%. On the inflation side, headline PCE fell .5% m/o/m and the core …
Some data overseas/Inflation
Ahead of US inflation data today at 8:30am we saw inflation news also from Japan and Europe. The Japanese read was specifically in Tokyo for May and it rose .5% y/o/y ex fresh food and energy, well more than the estimate of up .1%. It's rare that we see a higher than expected print in Japanese inflation and while the BoJ might be happy, I don't believe the Japanese …
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.