The initial June UoM consumer confidence index rose to 86.4 from 82.9 and that was above the estimate of 84.2 and compares with 88.3 in April. The increase was mostly led by a 5 pt increase in Expectations. The Current Conditions component rose 1.2 pts m/o/m. After a rise to 4.6% from 3.4% in May, matching the highest since 2008, one year inflation expectations …
[Read more...] about Confidence/Lower gasoline prices expected
I'll repeat my belief that part of the US Treasury rally was due to the comments and uber dovish stance of ECB president Christine Lagarde and most of her colleagues. That rally in European bonds continues today with the German 10 yr bund yield in particular down for the 4th straight day and by 2.5 bps to -.28%, the most negative since mid April. I will say this …
After a solid 10 yr note auction, today’s 30 yr bond auction was mixed. The yield of 2.172% was about 1 bp above the when issued and the bid to cover of 2.29 was a touch below the one year average of 2.33. On the other hand, direct and indirect bidders took 82% of the auction, a bit above the 12 month average of 79%. To the question over why are yields falling …
Headline CPI in May rose by .6% headline and .7% core vs the estimate for up .5% for both. These follow .8% and .9% increases respectively in April. Versus last year, headline CPI is now up 5% and the core rate by 3.8%. To rid ourselves of the easy comp/base effect discussion, May headline CPI was up 5.1% versus May 2019. In other words, about 2.5% per year. The core …
[Read more...] about We can now toss out base effect excuse/Claims
Yesterday Investors Intelligence said the Bull/Bear spread is getting closer to 40 again as Bulls rose 1 pt to 54.5 and Bears are down to 16.2, the lowest since last August. Today, AAII said Bears rose just under a point to 20.7 and that is a bit off the lowest level since the 1st week in January 2018 seen last week which was right after the major tax bill was passed …
[Read more...] about Sentiment/China loan data/BoK sets up rate hikes
The 10 yr note auction was great. The yield of 1.497% was about 1 bp below the when issued pricing just prior. The bid to cover of 2.58 was well above the one year average of 2.40. Also, direct and indirect bidders took almost 85% of the auction, above the 12 month average of 76%. This solid demand of course comes right before tomorrow’s CPI and the ECB meeting …
Another week and more evidence of low interest rates losing its effectiveness. With housing the most influenced sector in the entire US economy by changes in interest rates, purchases were little changed on the week, up .3% after a 3.1% drop last week. They are down 24% y/o/y. Refi's dropped for the 3rd straight week, by 5.1% and are lower by 27% y/o/y. We know what's …
The chief economist of the Bank of England, Andy Haldane, is leaving at month's end but he remains the most hawkish committee member and he's speaking out again and flexing on that reputation. He referred to the recent higher inflation stats by saying there was "some pretty punchy pressure on prices...If both pay, and costs are picking up, inflation on the high street …
There was a time, up until now, that the job openings number was looked at as an afterthought because it was delayed in its release. Not anymore in the context of the growing mismatch between the demand for workers and the supply of them. The number of job openings in April jumped to 9.29mm from 8.29mm in March. We’ve never seen this much availability after the …
Don't call it a taper but the Bank of Japan did not buy one share of ETF's in May. Not one of a market that they already own 70% of. Don't worry though because I'm sure they will be back on any sharp decline in stocks. That said, there has been an enormous amount of pressure on them to stop because of the distortive impact of what they are doing in return for little …
[Read more...] about Don’t call it a taper/Truth serum/40 yr high
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.
