The UoM consumer confidence index for September fell to 95.3 from 96.8 in August and was about in line with the estimate of 95. The components were very mixed as Current Conditions rose 3 pts to the best since November 2000 while Expectations were down by 4.3 pts after jumping by 7.2 pts in August. Looking within saw those expecting Higher Income rose 1 pt after …
[Read more...] about Consumer confidence, spending intentions, hurricanes
Industrial production in August fell a large .9% m/o/m vs the estimate of up .1%. A key reason for this was the .3% decline in manufacturing vs the expected .3% rise. The impact of hurricane Harvey was all over this as we saw declines in petro refining, organic chemicals and plastics materials and resins according to the Fed. Mining fell too “as Hurricane Harvey …
United States Getting right at the core retail sales figure saw a decline of .2% m/o/m in August which is well below the estimate of up .2%. After a big lift to July due to Amazon’s prime day, online sales fell 1.1% m/o/m after rising by 1.8% in July. The y/o/y gain is still great at 8%. Car sales fell 1.6% m/o/m as we know all about the slowing pace of this …
[Read more...] about Retail sales punk / Manufacturing pretty good
United States Initial jobless claims totaled 284k, 16k less than the forecast which was of course boosted to take into account the hurricane stricken regions (wasn’t just Houston as claims were estimated for Florida, South Caroline and Georgia in anticipation of the storm. Bottom line, outside of the influence of the hurricane damaged areas in Houston, the story …
The UK While they just couldn’t find the gumption to do it today, the Bank of England is finally laying the groundwork for a rate hike. After all, the lowest unemployment rate in 42 years and inflation relative to wages becoming a real problem makes the case for doing nothing pretty flimsy. The vote was 7-2 as expected. They said “Recent development suggest that …
[Read more...] about The BoE finally sets the table / China softens
30 Year Bond Auction After mediocre 3 and 10 yr note auctions, the 30 yr bond auction was not good either but was the least soft of the 3. The yield of 2.79% was just a hair above the when issued. The bid to cover of 2.21 was slightly below the one year average of 2.28. Lastly, dealers got stuck with 34% of the auction, a bit above the 12 month average of …
United States Headline PPI rose .2% m/o/m in August after a .1% drop in July but that was one tenth below the forecast. Taking out food and energy saw a .1% m/o/m rise which also was one tenth less than expected. Breaking down the core by one more iteration (taking out trade), saw a .2% rise m/o/m which was one tenth above the estimate. On a y/o/y basis, headline PPI …
[Read more...] about PPI / 42 years ago in the UK… / Housing / Sentiment / China
Bitcoin These comments from Jamie Dimon should certainly add to the debate on cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin: BN: *DIMON: BITCOIN WILL EVENTUALLY BLOW UP: `IT'S A FRAUD' BN: *DIMON: BITCOIN IS `WORSE THAN TULIP BULBS' BN: *DIMON: BITCOIN `WON'T END WELL' BN: *DIMON: WOULD FIRE ANY TRADER TRADING BITCOIN FOR BEING STUPID Discuss amongst yourselves. …
U.S. 10 yr Auction Following the very mediocre 3 yr note auction yesterday, the 10 yr auction today was soft well. The yield of 2.18% was one full bp above the when issued. The bid to cover of 2.28 was well below the one year average of 2.42. Also of note, dealers got stuck with 39% of the auction which is above the previous 12 month average of 31%. Bottom line, …
U.S. Job Openings In July, the number of job openings rose to a fresh record high at 6.17mm, up slightly from 6.12mm in June and above the forecast of 6mm. This data series goes back to December 2000. Notwithstanding the large amount of job availability, hirings only rose by 69k but was enough to lift the hiring rate up by one tenth to 3.8% (which does match the best …
Peter is the Chief Market Analyst with The Lindsey Group. He is Co-CIO at Bookmark Advisors, a member of the Advisory Services Network and a regular CNBC Contributor.
