There was nothing really new in the FOMC minutes from the meeting 3 weeks ago. I’ll just comment on three things. 1)The Fed is highlighting the inner workings of the Treasury market saying, “Several participants who commented on issues related to financial stability noted that the tightening of monetary policy could interact with vulnerabilities related to the …
Uncategorized
Capital spending
Non defense capital goods orders ex aircraft rose .3% m/o/m in April, two tenths less than expected and March was revised down by two tenths to a gain of 1.1%. Core shipments, plugged into GDP, was about as expected when combined with the downward revision to the prior month. Orders for vehicles/parts fell .2% m/o/m but off a robust 4.8% increase in March and it is …
A few things of note
When I woke up and checked the S&P futures I thought they were broken because I can't remember the last time they were little changed but they now seem to be working again. We know we've heard about the mix shift in products being sold by Walmart and Target with more needs than wants being the consumer focus. Nordstrom, with obviously a higher end customer, …
US Mfr’g & Services/New Home Sales/Record prices paid
Markit’s (now S&P Global) May manufacturing and services PMI fell to 53.8 from 56 with both components weaker m/o/m. Manufacturing fell to 57.5 from 59.2 while services was at 53.5 from 55.6. With respect to services, the index is at a 4 month low and “the pace of expansion was reportedly weighed down by hikes in selling prices and concerns with higher interest …
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A bunch of macro anecdotes
Just in case you didn't see the exact wording from Snap's 8K yesterday, they said this: "Since we issued guidance on April 21, 2022, the macroeconomic environment has deteriorated further and faster than anticipated. As a result, we believe it is likely that we will report revenue and adjusted EBITDA below the low end of our Q2 2022 guidance range." Because of how …
Lagarde, FX/CRE/Wealth effect/Freight rates/Other
At around 4:15am est, ECB president Christine Lagarde echoed what her colleagues have been saying for weeks now. Reiterating that QE will end right after Q2 and rates would go up in July with a possible zero deposit rate by "the end of the third quarter" she said. She however does not want to hike in 50 bps increments right now, "This means that it is sensible to move …
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A big congrats to Haruhiko Kuroda
A big congrats goes out to Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda who finally got the 2% inflation rate he's been trying so hard for. Japan's April CPI ex food rose 2.1% y/o/y from .8% in March and outside of the consumption tax boost in 2014-2015 that lifted inflation above 2%, this is the first time since September 2008 that we've seen a 2 handle. He must be very …
Claims/Philly mfr’g follows path of NY
Initial jobless claims rose to 218k from 197k (revised down by 6k) last week and that was 18k more than expected and follows last week’s upside surprise. The 4 week average is at 200k vs 191k last week and vs 189k in the week prior. That is the highest since mid February. Continuing claims remained low, falling to 1.317mm, a fresh 50+ yr low from 1.342mm in the week …
The Perfect Storm
Walmart and Target made it a point to tell us their challenges are all below the revenue line and that demand is still good, albeit with a changing sales mix. Cisco told us last night that their profit issues are due to supply challenges that are impacting the top line and not due to any changes in end demand. As for the top line, "We continue to see strong demand …
Home construction
Housing starts in April totaled 1.724mm, 30k less than expected and March was revised down by 65k to 1.728mm. Separating out the two components, single family starts fell to the lowest level since October 2021 at 1.1mm. Multi family on the other hand rose to 624k from 541k and that is the most since 1986, 36 years ago. From a construction standpoint, assume multi …
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor. Each day The Boock Report provides summaries and commentary on the macro data and news that matter, with analysis of what it all means and how it fits together.