The October Chicago manufacturing PMI, the last regional survey seen before Monday’s national ISM figure, printed 61.1. That is better than the estimate of 58 but down slightly from the 62.4 seen in September. The internals were mixed as new orders were the only thing up (but by just .2 pts) “while production recorded the largest decline,” down by 5.9 pts. …
[Read more...] about Mfr’g in Chicago region/How the consumer feels
While most of this data was captured in yesterday’s GDP report, there will be some modest revisions to it in response. September income and spending did exceed expectations with the savings rate falling slightly to a still high 14.3% from 14.8% in August. It peaked at 33.6% in April in immediate response to the CARES Act and shutdown. Spending on durable goods led …
To repeat again, it seems that NOW valuations do matter. I emphasize 'now' because we know for years it did not as valuations never matter in the short term as investors chase growth but does have a direct statistical relationship to long term future returns. But maybe valuations don't matter because I read this last night in the Jim Grant 'Almost Daily Grant's' that …
[Read more...] about Do valuations matter now?/GDP #s in Asia and Europe
“We have little doubt given what is expected as a result of the risks that we are seeing that circumstances will warrant the recalibration and implementation of this recalibrated package” said ECB President Christine Lagarde in here press conference today. In other words, at the December meeting the ECB will be adding further to what they’ve already been doing and …
Pending home sales in September unexpectedly fell by 2.2% m/o/m instead of rising by 2.9% as forecasted. This follows an 8.8% rise in August. Three of the four regions saw declines with only the Northeast seeing an increase. Bottom line, sales are still up 22% y/o/y but as I’ve been saying for weeks, at some point the aggressive price increases itself were going …
The third quarter saw GDP grow by 33.1% q/o/q annualized, about in line with the consensus of a 32% rebound. Under these circumstances it is best to look at the y/o/y numbers and they fell 2.9% y/o/y after the 9% drop in Q2. And importantly, the Q3 real GDP level of $18.58 Trillion is still 3.5% below the level of Q4 2019 at $19.25 Trillion. From a contribution …
From purely a contrarian standpoint, if we just had yesterday's II number on Monday morning it would have helped to explain the bout of selling this week. Bulls rose to 60.6 from 59.2 last week and captures sentiment thru last Friday. Bulls fell to 20.2 from 20.4 while those expecting a Correction fell to the lowest since September 2018, right before the big …
[Read more...] about Sentiment was not a good setup/Rates/BoJ/Other
Maybe today's selloff is Europe induced shutdown fears that is reminding us here that mobility restrictions are coming back and/or maybe it's frustration that DC won't spend another $2 Trillion just yet, along with election unknowns and what that means for businesses and families and/or maybe it's a sign that valuation matters. On October 15th I speculated that maybe …
[Read more...] about Valuations matter & Bill Dudley gives dose of reality
Core durable goods orders in September rose by 1% m/o/m, twice the estimate and August was revised up by 2 tenths to a gain of 2.1%. A gain in orders of autos/parts in a need to rebuild inventories was a key driver as they were up 1.5% m/o/m and 7.6% y/o/y. Computer/electronic orders also saw an increase both m/o/m and y/o/y by .6% and 5%. Both primary and …
[Read more...] about Durable goods/Consumer Confidence/Mfr’g
Q3 GDP number releases have begun. South Korea, a tech and export bellwether, said its economy grew by 1.9% q/o/q, better than the estimate of up 1.3% although the y/o/y print was still down by 1.3% but better than the forecast of lower by 1.8%. A sharp pick up in tech exports from Q2 in particular helped the economy with total exports higher by 16% q/o/q. As the …
[Read more...] about Q3 GDP time & some other things overseas
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.
