What we learned about the 1st half of the year, in no particular order: 1)Economic activity is now contracting on an inflation adjusted basis. 2)Headline CPI touched a cycle high of 8.6% in May which was on top of a 5% increase in May 2021. Don't blame Putin though as January 2022 CPI was up 7.5%. 3)Asset prices reset lower mostly due to …
Latest Data
Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 6/3
Positives 1)May payrolls rose by 390k, above the estimate of 318k, partly offset by a 22k downward revision to the two prior months. The private sector added 333k of this, 32k more than expected and thus government workers contributed the most to the upside. The household survey said 321k jobs were added and when combined with a similar 330k person increase in the …
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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events: 5/21
Positives 1)The May Markit manufacturing and services composite PMI rose to 68.1 from 63.5 mostly driven by a jump in the services component which increased to 70.1 from 64.7. Manufacturing was higher by 1 pt to 61.5. With services, dating back to 2009 the print is the best on record as “Firms linked the upturn to stronger client demand amid greater customer …
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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 4/9
Positives 1)The March ISM services index rose to 63.7 from 55.3 and that was well above the estimate of 59. This is the highest on record dating back to 1997. All 18 industries surveyed saw growth vs 17 in February and 14 in January. The ISM summed up the release by saying “Respondents’ comments indicate that the lifting of covid related restrictions has …
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Sentiment / Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 12/24
If you celebrate, have a great Christmas with your family. //www.youtube.com/watch?v=4riW8XnT0PI Updated market sentiment numbers: II: Bulls 62.4 vs 63.6, Bears 16.8 vs 17.2 - still extreme bullishness with Bulls above 60 and the spread above 40. AAII: Bulls 43.6 vs 43.4, Bears 22 vs 26.3 (lowest level since January 2nd) Succinct Summation of the …
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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 12/18
Positives 1)Delayed by a week in its reporting, continuing claims fell to 5.51mm from 5.76mm and that was 200k less than expected. Some though have benefits that are now expiring. 2)After falling 5% last week which followed a 9% rise in the week prior, the MBA said purchase applications rose 1.8% w/o/w and remain up a solid 27% y/o/y. Refi's rose 1.4% …
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Contract signings of existing homes
Pending home sales in May bounced strongly from the April weakness with a 44.3% m/o/m gain after the 22% drop in the month prior and 21% decline in March. For perspective though, the index level of 99.6 compares with 111.4 in February and 108.9 in January but of course getting close to what was lost. The NAR said “More listings are continuously appearing as the …
Some US economy stats
There was improvement in the Markit’s June US manufacturing and services PMI but were a bit below expectations. Manufacturing rose to 49.6 from 39.8 while services grew to 46.7 from 37.5. Again, direction not degree is the driver here as things reopen. With this composite index still below 50 at 46.8, it reflects a situation where “the overall pace of decline eased …
Where have you gone Warren Buffett?/The bill
Before I get into the details of the bill, I just needed to sing this out loud because I'm so damn curious as to what Warren Buffett is thinking and doing with all that cash he's sitting on. "Where have you gone Warren Buffett? Our nation turns its lonely eyes to you. Woo, Woo, Woo. What's that you say, Mrs. Robinson? Walloping Warren has left and gone away." So …
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Bond yields/Swap lines/Sentiment/Housing
The fiscal largess that is coming our way is again weighing on global sovereign bonds with now the previous save havens of longer term US Treasuries, German Bunds, UK Gilts and Japanese JGB's no longer. The US 10 yr yield is up another 3 bps after yesterday's dramatic 36 bps spike. UK and German 10 yr yields are higher by about 15 bps while Japanese yields are up by 6 …
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Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor. Each day The Boock Report provides summaries and commentary on the macro data and news that matter, with analysis of what it all means and how it fits together.