Positives 1)The March ISM services index rose to 63.7 from 55.3 and that was well above the estimate of 59. This is the highest on record dating back to 1997. All 18 industries surveyed saw growth vs 17 in February and 14 in January. The ISM summed up the release by saying “Respondents’ comments indicate that the lifting of covid related restrictions has …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 4/9
If you celebrate, have a great Christmas with your family. //www.youtube.com/watch?v=4riW8XnT0PI Updated market sentiment numbers: II: Bulls 62.4 vs 63.6, Bears 16.8 vs 17.2 - still extreme bullishness with Bulls above 60 and the spread above 40. AAII: Bulls 43.6 vs 43.4, Bears 22 vs 26.3 (lowest level since January 2nd) Succinct Summation of the …
[Read more...] about Sentiment / Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 12/24
Positives 1)Delayed by a week in its reporting, continuing claims fell to 5.51mm from 5.76mm and that was 200k less than expected. Some though have benefits that are now expiring. 2)After falling 5% last week which followed a 9% rise in the week prior, the MBA said purchase applications rose 1.8% w/o/w and remain up a solid 27% y/o/y. Refi's rose 1.4% …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 12/18
Pending home sales in May bounced strongly from the April weakness with a 44.3% m/o/m gain after the 22% drop in the month prior and 21% decline in March. For perspective though, the index level of 99.6 compares with 111.4 in February and 108.9 in January but of course getting close to what was lost. The NAR said “More listings are continuously appearing as the …
There was improvement in the Markit’s June US manufacturing and services PMI but were a bit below expectations. Manufacturing rose to 49.6 from 39.8 while services grew to 46.7 from 37.5. Again, direction not degree is the driver here as things reopen. With this composite index still below 50 at 46.8, it reflects a situation where “the overall pace of decline eased …
Before I get into the details of the bill, I just needed to sing this out loud because I'm so damn curious as to what Warren Buffett is thinking and doing with all that cash he's sitting on. "Where have you gone Warren Buffett? Our nation turns its lonely eyes to you. Woo, Woo, Woo. What's that you say, Mrs. Robinson? Walloping Warren has left and gone away." So …
[Read more...] about Where have you gone Warren Buffett?/The bill
The fiscal largess that is coming our way is again weighing on global sovereign bonds with now the previous save havens of longer term US Treasuries, German Bunds, UK Gilts and Japanese JGB's no longer. The US 10 yr yield is up another 3 bps after yesterday's dramatic 36 bps spike. UK and German 10 yr yields are higher by about 15 bps while Japanese yields are up by 6 …
[Read more...] about Bond yields/Swap lines/Sentiment/Housing
For the week ended March 7th, initial jobless claims actually fell by 4k to 211k, 9k less than expected. This is a high frequency number and hasn’t showed any stress yet but it just seems inevitable that we are on the cusp of a jump. PPI was soft across the board, falling m/o/m and moderating the headline y/o/y increase to 1.3% and the core rate of 1.4%. Bottom …
[Read more...] about Claims yet to show growing stress/PPI down now, up later?
The September ISM manufacturing index fell further into contraction at 47.8 vs 49.1 in August and below the estimate of exactly 50. That is the weakest print since June 2009. New orders were little changed but still below 50 at 47.3. Backlogs fell 1.2 pts to 45.1 and that is the 5th time in a row it’s been below 50. The weakness in business was most obvious within …
[Read more...] about We’ve tariffed our way into a mfr’g recession
The 2 yr note auction, an area of the curve very sensitive to Fed policy and maybe an area of safety for those fixed income buyers shaken by what’s happened in money markets over the past week, was very good. The yield of 1.612% was about 1 bp below the when issued. The bid to cover of 2.64 was above the one year average of 2.56. And, direct and indirect bidders took …
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.
