Industrial production for December rose .3% m/o/m, one tenth more than expected and November was revised down by two tenths. The manufacturing component was particularly strong with a 1.1% m/o/m rise, well more than the estimate of up .3%. The reason for this was an inexplicable 4.7% m/o/m spike in the production of autos/parts just as the demand for them has …
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Claims and Philly mfr’g
Initial jobless claims totaled 213k, 7k less than expected and down from 216k last week for the week ended January 12th. The 4 week average fell by 1k to 221k. The BLS said that claims by federal workers for the week ended January 5th (thus delayed by a week) was higher by 10k not seasonally adjusted. The week prior it was just below 5k. Thus, as long as the shutdown …
A few interesting reads
Outside of the question of what the UK government and Parliament does next, the key is what the EU does and to what extent they bend. As after all we are in the 21st century with smart phones, Bloomberg news had this headline: "EU says Juncker is texting with Theresa May." As it now looks like Parliament will now be heavily involved in constructing a deal that is …
Here are some key quotes from the rather blah and ordinary Fed Beige Book: “Economic activity increased in most of the U.S., with eight of twelve Federal Reserve Districts reporting modest to moderate growth.” “Outlooks generally remained positive, but many Districts reported that contacts had become less optimistic in response to increased financial market …
Sentiment
As we know market mood follows price and not the other way around as people like to buy when up and sell when down, Investors Intelligence said sentiment got more bullish this past week. Bulls jumped to 42.1 from 34.8 and vs 29.9 in the week prior which was the fewest since February 2016. Bears fell to 25.3 from 29.4 last week and 34.6 in the week before that. II said …
Overseas goings on
Just by observing the market action of the British pound, especially after the jump right after the vote, seems to be sending a message that the worst case scenario of a no deal/hard Brexit seems to be the lowest odds and most unlikely event. I remain positive on the pound and some UK stocks and very dependent on too that Jeremy Corbyn doesn't become PM. Also, the …
Esther George is someone to listen to
In the current debate over what the Fed should do from here, Fed President Esther George’s opinion is very important because she both votes and has a history of being on the hawkish side. In a speech just given she is calling for a Fed time out. “It might be a good time to pause our interest rate normalization, study the incoming evidence and data, and verify our …
PPI and weak manufacturing
In December, the headline PPI fell .2% m/o/m vs the estimate of down .1%. The core rate missed by 3 tenths, dropping by one tenth instead of rising by 2 tenths as expected. If we take out trade in addition to food and energy, prices saw no change m/o/m vs the estimate of up .2%. Versus last year, headline PPI was up by 2.5%, the core rate was up by 2.7% and the core …
UK/China/5 of 6
I'm not going to pretend to have any confidence on what happens with Brexit from here other than to say it looks like PM May will lose badly today. It does seem like sentiment is leading to a delay of the end of March deadline but we don't know if May will stick around after today. Either way, I'm still of the belief that regardless of the outcome, just having one …
Shutdown/China/Europe/70%
While we all know the government will at some point reopen and things will go back to normal, it's now becoming an irritant and with issues developing with TSA, the collateral damage can be more than I expected it to reach. Again, any disruption is temporary and will be quickly righted but some of the business lost will certainly not get recaptured. The Chinese …
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.