The September ISM manufacturing index fell further into contraction at 47.8 vs 49.1 in August and below the estimate of exactly 50. That is the weakest print since June 2009. New orders were little changed but still below 50 at 47.3. Backlogs fell 1.2 pts to 45.1 and that is the 5th time in a row it’s been below 50. The weakness in business was most obvious within …
[Read more...] about We’ve tariffed our way into a mfr’g recession
The 2 yr note auction, an area of the curve very sensitive to Fed policy and maybe an area of safety for those fixed income buyers shaken by what’s happened in money markets over the past week, was very good. The yield of 1.612% was about 1 bp below the when issued. The bid to cover of 2.64 was above the one year average of 2.56. And, direct and indirect bidders took …
The September Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence index fell to 125.1 from 134.2 and that was well below the estimate of 133. It’s also a 3 month low and below the average seen this year of 128.6. Of particular note was the weakness in the Expectations component which fell to 95.8 from 106.4 and that’s the lowest since January (right after stock market tanked) and …
[Read more...] about Consumer confidence slips as does mfr’g in Richmond region
If you click thru to the website, it should currently include everything in a clear fashion. …
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Last week the Fed released its Q2 flow of funds statement, essentially the financial statements of the country at all levels, both public and private sectors. I include the updated Net Worth to Disposable Income chart at almost 700% to highlight the US economy's dependency on asset prices in driving things. It is why raising them is the Fed's other mandate and …
The Markit US manufacturing and services composite index for September rose a touch to 51 from 50.7 with manufacturing up ticking to 51 from 50.3 and services up by .2 pts to 50.9. Here are some comments from Markit as while the number did slightly increase, it still remains around the 50 level. With services, new orders fell to the lowest level since the survey …
The German manufacturing sector continued to worsen in September as its PMI fell to just 41.4, well below the breakeven of 50 while services moderated as well to 52.5. With activity down too in France, the overall manufacturing and services composite index for the Eurozone is now basically flatlining at 50.4, a more than 6 year low with manufacturing down to 45.6 and …
While I’m very cognizant and aware of the growing economic risks and worried that they will only grow, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren I believe laid out the most cogent explanation as to why the Fed should not be cutting interest rates from already such low levels. “The stance of monetary policy is accommodative. Additional monetary stimulus is not needed for an …
With the Fed on track for another repo facility today, it does seem to have worked in keeping the general collateral overnight repo rate tame at 1.95%. This rate touched 8.75% on Tuesday. We still need to see a lower effective fed funds rate which will get updated soon today. As of Wednesday it was still at 2.25%. As for one Fed member, James Bullard today is …
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.
