Initial jobless claims rose back above 200k for the first time since the first week of January at 211k, up from 190k last week and 16k more than forecasted. This lifted the 4 week average to 197k from 193k. Also of note, continuing claims jumped by 69k to 1.72mm, matching the highest since January 2022.
This follows the Challenger job cut February report an hour ago where they said the 77,770 job cuts seen mark “February’s total is the highest for the month since 2009 when 186,350 cuts were recorded.” Taking the January/February time frame and the number of job cuts is also the most since 2009. They said “Right now, the overwhelming bulk of cuts are occurring in technology. Retail and financial are also cutting right now, as consumer spending matches economic conditions. In February, job cuts occurred in all 30 industries. In fact, Challenger has not recorded announcements in every industry the firm tracks since January 2013, when cuts occurred in all 29 industries. The firm did not track FinTech until 2019.” I bolded the key comment.
Bottom line, I’ll repeat the possibility, from a mean reversion standpoint, of a negative print tomorrow if the ADP data has any correlation left with the BLS and which is reflecting much slower job growth than the BLS. We’ve heard from ZipRecruiter, and Indeed said something similar, and now we have the highest number of people collecting claims in more than a year. The labor market might just be on the cusp of an inflection point.
Treasury yields are a touch lower in response and the US dollar remains weaker this morning.
Jobless Claims
Continuing Claims
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor. Each day The Boock Report provides summaries and commentary on the macro data and news that matter, with analysis of what it all means and how it fits together.