Housing starts in November totaled 1.297mm, 47k above the estimate but was about offset by a 34k downward revision to October to 1.256mm. Most positive was the jump in single family starts to 930k from 883k in October, 832k in September right after Houston and in the midst of Florida and vs 871k in August. Smoothing this out puts the 6 month average at 869k vs the year to date average of 850k and up from 784k in 2016. We are still below however the 25 year average of 1.025mm. As for multi family starts, they were little changed m/o/m at 367k and which is above its 25 year average of 299k. We know multi family construction has been the bright spot within housing.
With the forward looking permits data, they totaled 1.298mm, 28k more than expected and October was revised up by 19k. Single family permits rose 12k m/o/m to 862k and smoothing this out for the storms, the 6 month average is 826k vs the year to date average of 818k. Multi family permits fell by 30k m/o/m but remains on trend when averaged out.
Bottom line, the aftermath of the hurricanes are still filtering thru the data as the biggest upside was the single family rise in starts down South. They rose out West too but were unchanged in the Northeast and fell in the Midwest m/o/m.
The housing market continues to recover but pricing still remains an issue for first time buyers. Housing construction should continue to be good in light of the low inventory situation with existing homes and the robust rent increases many are still facing.
SINGLE FAMILY STARTS over past 25 years
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor. Each day The Boock Report provides summaries and commentary on the macro data and news that matter, with analysis of what it all means and how it fits together.