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June 15, 2017 By Peter Boockvar

Builder confidence moderates slightly


The NAHB home builder confidence survey in June was 67, down from 69 in May (revised from 70) and 3 pts below the estimate. All three components fell m/o/m by 2 pts with Prospective Buyers Traffic in particular back below 50 at 49 after 3 months above it.

Bottom line, notwithstanding the drop in confidence m/o/m it still remains at a good level (relatively speaking) because builders know the low inventory situation of existing homes and the NAHB said “builder confidence levels have remained consistently sound this year, reflecting the ongoing gradual recovery of the housing market.” The problem though still remains in that we are not getting enough homes built in the price range less than $250k where millennial demand is most apparent for those that could afford a down payment. The key reason for this is the low margin and less profitability that it entails because as the NAHB said today, “builders continue to express their frustration over an ongoing shortage of skilled labor and buildable lots that is impeding stronger growth in the single family sector” which of course raises the cost of doing business.

Also we can’t ignore that for those searching for adjustable rate mortgages, it just got a bit more expensive while fixed (priced off the 10 yr) of course remains very attractive.

The builder etf ITB is at the low of the day in response to the data miss but follows 4 days in a row of gains.

BUILDER SURVEY

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Filed Under: Latest Data

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About Peter

Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor. Each day The Boock Report provides summaries and commentary on the macro data and news that matter, with analysis of what it all means and how it fits together.

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Disclaimer - Peter Boockvar is an independent economist and market strategist. The Boock Report is independently produced by Peter Boockvar. Peter Boockvar is also the Chief Investment Officer of Bleakley Financial Group, LLC a Registered Investment Adviser. The Boock Report and Bleakley Financial Group, LLC are separate entities. Content contained in The Boock Report newsletters should not be construed as investment advice offered by Bleakley Financial Group, LLC or Peter Boockvar. This market commentary is for informational purposes only and is not meant to constitute a recommendation of any particular investment, security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy. The views expressed in this commentary should not be taken as advice to buy, sell or hold any security. To the extent any of the content published as part of this commentary may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person. No chart, graph, or other figure provided should be used to determine which securities to buy or sell. Consult your advisor about what is best for you.

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