Claims/Durable Goods Orders/Q1 GDP

Initial jobless claims totaled 2.123mm, a touch above the estimate of 2.10mm but down from 2.44mm last week. It’s the 8th week in a row of moderation but all self inflicted. Continuing claims, delayed by a week relative to initial claims, moderated to a still alarming 21mm from 24.9mm in the week prior. This is likely due to businesses beginning the reopening process. Both initial claims and importantly continuing claims will be most relevant to analyze AFTER most things have already reopened. I say ‘most things’ because we know large gatherings won’t be happening until 2021.

INITIAL CLAIMS

CONTINUING CLAIMS

Core April durable goods orders fell by 5.8% m/o/m which wasn’t as bad as the estimate of down 10%. That estimate for April was a shot in the dark. It’s not even worth going thru the internals as again, the economic data only matters AFTER most things have already reopened.

Old news but Q1 GDP contracted by 5% in the new revision from the first print of -4.8%. Q2 estimates are for a contraction of 34%, also self inflicted but with a 15% bounce back in Q3 which still leaves us well in the hole.