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July 25, 2017 By Peter Boockvar

Conference Board said this, UoM said that / Mfr’g


United States

The July Conference Board Consumer Confidence index rose to 121.1 from a revised 117.3 in June. That was almost 5 pts above the estimate of 116.5. This is the 2nd best level post election with the 124.9 print in March being the best with both levels last seen in 2000. It was at 100.8 in October. Both components contributed to the headline beat with the Present Situation higher by 3.9 pts and Expectations up by 3.7 pts. The answers to the labor market questions improved further. Those that said jobs were Plentiful was up by 2.1 pts to the most since July 2001. Those that said jobs were Hard to Get fell .4 pts to the least since February 2007. After rising by 1.8 pts in June, those expecting Higher Income was down by .9 pts. Unfortunately there was a .7 pt increase in those expecting a Decrease. Business conditions for both the present and with the outlook improved.

As for buying intentions, the answers were mixed. Those that plan on buying a car/truck within 6 months was basically unchanged, up by .1 to 12.7. It peaked post election at 14. Those that plan on buying a home rose .7 pts encouragingly to 6.7, the most since the election print in November. Those that plan on buying a major appliance however fell 6 pts to the lowest level since January 2015. Lastly, one year inflation expectations held at 4.6%.

Bottom line, it’s encouraging to see the headline beat but as I’ve said many times, consumer confidence figures don’t tell us anything about the future. We’ve seen a sharp rise in confidence post election and retail sales have done nothing but continue on its very mediocre trend. This is why it’s never market moving. Also, the UoM confidence survey out on July 14th, which has the same cut off date as today’s Conference Board number, saw a 2 pt m/o/m decline to the lowest since October.

….

After moderation’s in both the NY and Philly manufacturing surveys with particular softness in the internals in Philly, the July Richmond index rose to 14 from 11 (revised from 7) and that is above the estimate of 7. The key internals also saw gains m/o/m. The 6 month outlook also got better. Bottom line, the July economic data seen so far has been mixed in manufacturing, mixed in confidence and a touch lower in builder sentiment. Keep in mind that these are all confidence surveys and not actual hard data. The Q2 GDP growth rate out on Friday is expected to be up by 2.5% from 1.4% in Q1.

Filed Under: Latest Data

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Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor. Each day The Boock Report provides summaries and commentary on the macro data and news that matter, with analysis of what it all means and how it fits together.

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Disclaimer - Peter Boockvar is an independent economist and market strategist. The Boock Report is independently produced by Peter Boockvar. Peter Boockvar is also the Chief Investment Officer of Bleakley Financial Group, LLC a Registered Investment Adviser. The Boock Report and Bleakley Financial Group, LLC are separate entities. Content contained in The Boock Report newsletters should not be construed as investment advice offered by Bleakley Financial Group, LLC or Peter Boockvar. This market commentary is for informational purposes only and is not meant to constitute a recommendation of any particular investment, security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy. The views expressed in this commentary should not be taken as advice to buy, sell or hold any security. To the extent any of the content published as part of this commentary may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person. No chart, graph, or other figure provided should be used to determine which securities to buy or sell. Consult your advisor about what is best for you.

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