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October 27, 2017 By Peter Boockvar

Confidence / Powell


Confidence

The final October UoM confidence index was 100.7 as expected, down slightly from the preliminary one of 101.1 but up from 100.7 in September and the best since 2004. Both components were higher m/o/m and one year inflation expectations came in at 2.4% vs 2.3% initially but down from 2.7% in September. This was lowered in part to the 2nd weakest reading in those expecting higher gasoline prices. This of course is a price that many see every day. Business expectations were little changed with September but those expecting higher employment was up by 3 pts m/o/m. The UoM also said this, “Personal finances were judged near all-time record favorable levels due to gains in household incomes as well as decade highs in home and stock values.” In fact, the spread between the value of stock and home values relative to disposable income is at a record high and above the March 2000 and July 2007 previous peaks.

Spending intentions moderated from the first October read but are still up nicely from September. Versus last month, those that said it’s a good time to buy a vehicle rose by 6 pts. Those that said it’s a good time to buy a major household item was up by 3 pts and those that said it’s a good time to buy a home was up by 5 pts. Those that said it’s a good time to sell rose 1 pt to just below the highest level in 12 years.

Here is an updated chart on the number of people surveyed that think the stock market will be up in the next 12 months. This question dates back to 2002. The two previous peaks were June 2015 and July 2007.

image001(3)

Bottom line, consumer confidence is very good but as stated here many times this is just a coincident indicator and something I don’t rely on in trying to gauge how consumers will spend in coming months and quarters.

 


Fed

BN: *TRUMP IS SAID TO LEAN TOWARD POWELL AS NEXT FED CHAIR

 

Filed Under: Central Banks, Latest Data

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About Peter

Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor. Each day The Boock Report provides summaries and commentary on the macro data and news that matter, with analysis of what it all means and how it fits together.

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Disclaimer - Peter Boockvar is an independent economist and market strategist. The Boock Report is independently produced by Peter Boockvar. Peter Boockvar is also the Chief Investment Officer of Bleakley Financial Group, LLC a Registered Investment Adviser. The Boock Report and Bleakley Financial Group, LLC are separate entities. Content contained in The Boock Report newsletters should not be construed as investment advice offered by Bleakley Financial Group, LLC or Peter Boockvar. This market commentary is for informational purposes only and is not meant to constitute a recommendation of any particular investment, security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy. The views expressed in this commentary should not be taken as advice to buy, sell or hold any security. To the extent any of the content published as part of this commentary may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person. No chart, graph, or other figure provided should be used to determine which securities to buy or sell. Consult your advisor about what is best for you.

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