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February 24, 2021 By Peter Boockvar

New home sales

New home sales in January totaled 923k, above the estimate of 856k and up from 885k in December (revised up from 842k). This figure peaked out at 979k last July but certainly is running at a good pace as the market desperately needs more new supply. Months’ supply was little changed at 4.0 vs 4.1 and the median home price was up 5.3% y/o/y (very volatile figure month to month because of the influence of mix). The average price went to a record high of $408,800 because of an increase in home sales priced above $500,000 relative to the gain in those priced below.

Bottom line, we know the housing market has been red hot and with 10% y/o/y price gains, maybe too hot. Now that mortgage rates are rising, we’ll likely see a rest. Since this January number, the average mortgage rate has risen by 20 bps to back above 3%. What is stunning is the rapidity of this move higher in long rates as the long end has essentially tightened policy by 50 bps in just 7 weeks. Along with another jump today, the 5 yr inflation breakeven is up by 4.4 bps to 2.44%, a level last seen in May 2011.

NEW HOME SALES

5 yr INFLATION BREAKEVEN

Filed Under: Uncategorized

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About Peter

Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor. Each day The Boock Report provides summaries and commentary on the macro data and news that matter, with analysis of what it all means and how it fits together.

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Disclaimer - Peter Boockvar is an independent economist and market strategist. The Boock Report is independently produced by Peter Boockvar. Peter Boockvar is also the Chief Investment Officer of Bleakley Financial Group, LLC a Registered Investment Adviser. The Boock Report and Bleakley Financial Group, LLC are separate entities. Content contained in The Boock Report newsletters should not be construed as investment advice offered by Bleakley Financial Group, LLC or Peter Boockvar. This market commentary is for informational purposes only and is not meant to constitute a recommendation of any particular investment, security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy. The views expressed in this commentary should not be taken as advice to buy, sell or hold any security. To the extent any of the content published as part of this commentary may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person. No chart, graph, or other figure provided should be used to determine which securities to buy or sell. Consult your advisor about what is best for you.

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