New home sales in September totaled 667k, well more than the forecast of 554k and up from 561k in August. It’s the most since October and it all has to do with a huge spike in the South where sales jumped 26% m/o/m. We can call this a hurricane distorted figure with respect to the timing of contract signings. With the number of homes for sale remaining the same as in August, months’ supply fell by a full month to 5.0 from 6.0. The median home price was up by 1.6% y/o/y but this figure tends to be very volatile month to month depending on the sales mix.
Bottom line, September saw a big jump in sales but because of the outsized influence of the contract signings in the South where timing was likely skewed by the storms, it’s probably best to average the August/September pace and that would be 614k which is about in line with the year to date average of 609k. Looking past the upside beat was the US Treasury market too where yields are exactly where they were just prior to the release of the data.
NEW HOMES SALES IN THE SOUTH since the peak in 2005
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.