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October 16, 2017 By Peter Boockvar

NY mfr’g jumps but…


The October NY manufacturing index rose almost 6 pts to 30.2 and that was about 10 pts above the estimate. The index level also matches the best level in 8 years. Notwithstanding the headline jump, the internals were more mixed. New orders fell 7 pts to a 3 month low at 18 after rising by 4.3 pts in September. Backlogs dropped by 6.6 pts to 2.3 and inventories fell below zero at -7.8 from +6.5. Shipments did jump by 11.3 pts but follows previous orders. Employment rose 5 pts but the average workweek fell by 5.7 pts. Prices paid and received both fell m/o/m. The overall 6 month business activity outlook rose 5.5 pts after dropping by 5.9 pts last month. Capital spending plans fell by 2.5 pts after more than doubling last month. Tech spending plans fell slightly but also after jumping in September.

Bottom line, the headline jump in this index masked a more mixed picture underneath (the headline number is not a sum of its parts) and US Treasuries didn’t respond at all to the number (it rarely does). This said, likely helped by the weaker dollar and rebound in overseas economies, manufacturing confidence has clearly improved. We see the Philly regional survey on Thursday.

NY MANUFACTURING INDEX

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About Peter

Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor. Each day The Boock Report provides summaries and commentary on the macro data and news that matter, with analysis of what it all means and how it fits together.

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Disclaimer - Peter Boockvar is an independent economist and market strategist. The Boock Report is independently produced by Peter Boockvar. Peter Boockvar is also the Chief Investment Officer of Bleakley Financial Group, LLC a Registered Investment Adviser. The Boock Report and Bleakley Financial Group, LLC are separate entities. Content contained in The Boock Report newsletters should not be construed as investment advice offered by Bleakley Financial Group, LLC or Peter Boockvar. This market commentary is for informational purposes only and is not meant to constitute a recommendation of any particular investment, security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy. The views expressed in this commentary should not be taken as advice to buy, sell or hold any security. To the extent any of the content published as part of this commentary may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person. No chart, graph, or other figure provided should be used to determine which securities to buy or sell. Consult your advisor about what is best for you.

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