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February 12, 2020 By Peter Boockvar

Sentiment/Housing/Data/Let ESG sell to me

Jay Powell heads to the Senate today and I hope he gets some better questioning because yesterday’s Q&A was a real snoozer.

Along with the bounce back in stocks, Investors Intelligence saw more Bulls at 52.9% from 47.6% last week and vs 52.8% in the week prior. Bears were little changed at 19.2% vs 19.1% and that actually is the most since last April while most of the Bulls came out of the Correction side which stands at 27.9% vs 33.3% last week. Bottom line, after seeing extreme bull readings in a variety of metrics literally days before the virus outbreak, the pullback in stocks rung some of that optimism out but it’s coming back rather quickly. Buy on the dip remains firmly embedded in the mentality of the investor as we know.

According to the MBA, mortgage applications were mixed as purchases fell for a 2nd week and by 5.8% but the y/o/y gain was still 16% (easy comparison’s though after the aftermath of the tough Q4 of 2018). Refi’s rose 5% as mortgage rates hold at multi year lows and are higher by 207% y/o/y.

MBA PURCHASE APPS

Following a slew of industrial production misses seen over the past week from some European countries, today’s release of the data for the entire region saw a 2.1% m/o/m decline, one tenth more than expected, November was revised down by 2 tenths and the y/o/y decline was 4.1% which matches the worst print since 2009. This figure has declined y/o/y for 14 straight months. And now the global economy has the major disruptions that the virus brings.

The global stock markets are pricing in the rebound likely to come this spring time while global bonds are more worried about the economic here and now. Oil is bouncing back above $50 (the dividend yields that big oil stocks are paying are pretty compelling I believe so let the ESG people sell as much as they want) and copper is higher for a 2nd day.

Reflecting the upside down world of the epic bond bubble we are experiencing, the Greek 10 yr bond yield has broken below 1% at .98%. Now I’ve been a bull on Greek stocks over the past year plus on the positives that President Kyriakos Mitsotakis was expected and is currently bringing to their economy but this move in yields is quite astonishing.

GREEK 10 yr yield

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About Peter

Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor. Each day The Boock Report provides summaries and commentary on the macro data and news that matter, with analysis of what it all means and how it fits together.

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Disclaimer - Peter Boockvar is an independent economist and market strategist. The Boock Report is independently produced by Peter Boockvar. Peter Boockvar is also the Chief Investment Officer of Bleakley Financial Group, LLC a Registered Investment Adviser. The Boock Report and Bleakley Financial Group, LLC are separate entities. Content contained in The Boock Report newsletters should not be construed as investment advice offered by Bleakley Financial Group, LLC or Peter Boockvar. This market commentary is for informational purposes only and is not meant to constitute a recommendation of any particular investment, security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy. The views expressed in this commentary should not be taken as advice to buy, sell or hold any security. To the extent any of the content published as part of this commentary may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person. No chart, graph, or other figure provided should be used to determine which securities to buy or sell. Consult your advisor about what is best for you.

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