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July 17, 2017 By Peter Boockvar

The 1st July industrial #


United States

The July NY manufacturing index fell 10 pts m/o/m to 9.8 and that was below the estimate of 15. That happens to be around the average over the past 3 months of 9.5 but which is slightly below the 6 month average of 11.5. Before the election it printed -5.5 in October and bounced to 2.2 in November. New orders fell almost 5 pts to 13.3 and backlogs dropped by more than 9 pts to back below 50 at -4.7. Shipments halved, giving back all of the jump in June. Employment dropped by 3.8 pts to a 5 month low at 3.9 while the Workweek was zero, down from 8.5. Inventories dropped by 5.3 pts to 2.4. Prices paid and received both rose a touch m/o/m. Looking forward, the 6 month business activity outlook fell by almost 7 pts to 34.9, the weakest since November. Disappointingly, capital spending plans fell 5.8 pts and almost giving back all of June’s rise. At 15, it is 5.5 pts below the 6 month average. Spending on technology was little changed.

Bottom line, in July “Business activity grew modestly in New York State” according to the NY Fed. What’s also clear is that the jumps in both business and consumer confidence indices that occurred right after the election continues to cool as the reality of the actual performance of the economy brings gravity to those numbers. As this is the first July industrial number to get released, it is not showing any acceleration in the first month of Q3 after what turned out to be a soft Q1 GDP and most likely a lame rebound in Q2. The Philly region gets reported on Thursday.

THE 6 MONTH OUTLOOK IN BUSINESS ACTIVITY

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Filed Under: Latest Data

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About Peter

Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor. Each day The Boock Report provides summaries and commentary on the macro data and news that matter, with analysis of what it all means and how it fits together.

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Disclaimer - Peter Boockvar is an independent economist and market strategist. The Boock Report is independently produced by Peter Boockvar. Peter Boockvar is also the Chief Investment Officer of Bleakley Financial Group, LLC a Registered Investment Adviser. The Boock Report and Bleakley Financial Group, LLC are separate entities. Content contained in The Boock Report newsletters should not be construed as investment advice offered by Bleakley Financial Group, LLC or Peter Boockvar. This market commentary is for informational purposes only and is not meant to constitute a recommendation of any particular investment, security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy. The views expressed in this commentary should not be taken as advice to buy, sell or hold any security. To the extent any of the content published as part of this commentary may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person. No chart, graph, or other figure provided should be used to determine which securities to buy or sell. Consult your advisor about what is best for you.

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